Goodwood Festival Tuesday Tips: Tony Calvin's hoping it's his Destiny to back a 14-1 winner

Racing can be brutal sometimes - Bless Him and Dubai Honour getting beaten a short-head and a nose respectively within 15 minutes of each other on Saturday afternoon was about as bone-crunching as it gets - but we brush ourselves down and get back on the betting horse.

And it isn't as if Glorious Goodwood (yes, I know the name of the Festival has changed, but it will be forever such to my generation and probably the next one down, too) is well-known for hard-luck stories, is it?

Hope we see Trueshan in Goodwood Cup

Let's start with the big race, the Goodwood Cup at 15:35, and the good news here is that all nine of the five-day entries stand their ground.

For now.

That is significant because one of the nine is Trueshan, and of course he may well be pulled out if it is on the quick side.

It is actually being called good (good to firm in places) at the moment and they have been watering daily to maintain any lost moisture, and there are showers around on Monday, so maybe we could see Alan King's star stayer after all. That Northumberland Plate win off 120 was something else.

I hope we do as Trueshan is the best around in this division - for the time being, anyway - on the evidence of his winning exploits last season (and the Newcastle win obviously) which included a win in this race, and surely connections will chance their arm if it is genuinely good.

Unfortunately, past evidence suggests it is odds-against seeing him if Tuesday is a sunny, drying day, but at least we may still get the dead-eight.

Kyprios is fancied to see off Stradivarius again, but Coltrane looked a coming force in this stamina discipline atter his dominating performance at Sandown last time, and he gets to show whether he can cut it in the top league.

I may well take my chance each-way on him if eight or more are still in the race on Tuesday afternoon, but I will sit tight for now, with what I consider a likely Rule 4 to come.

Mind you, the Sportsbook took a big risk by originally offering Trueshan at 15/2 on Sunday morning. There is no way he could have gone off at that price if the ground is deemed suitable by Alan King, and he was quickly trimmed into 9/2.

Caradoc looks very well-handicapped but he'll need some luck

The 11/2 ante-post favourite Protagonist missed the cut by two in the opener at 13:50, which must have had connections full of woe as he looked to have an outstanding chance after a luckless fourth on his return at Sandown.

In his absence, Brilliant Light has assumed favouritism alongside Just Fine and Legend Of Dubai (a huge gamble when disappointing in the Hunt Cup last time). though a draw on the inner in two could cause Danny Tudhope problems if he does not hit the ground running.

Luck, as ever, will prove a massive factor in this race.

Maybe the form of the John Smith's Cup will be key to determining the winner here - and the runner-up Achelois advertised it when winning last week - as Brilliant Light finished fifth there, with Just Fine sixth and Caradoc in eighth and Forest Falcon 14th,

I do think Brilliant Light is pretty solid, as he can go forward, but, looking at the York race, you have to think that Just Fine and Caradoc got worse runs through and they have both been dropped 2lb, while he has been left on the same mark.

I was considering putting up both Just Fine and Caradoc up, but I don't think I want to be backing them combined against 16 rivals here and I am going solo with the latter.

It is not hard to see grief for Richard Kingscote from stall five, and this horse tends to find all the trouble going. And he hasn't won since September 2019.

But if he gets a half-decent run through he is on a very well-handicapped horse, who has finished second on both starts here (including in this race last season on heavy going, when he only found the smashed-up Migration, who went in off an 8lb higher mark at York next time, too good), and who is ground-versatile.

Back him at 8/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook. The 9s went early on Sunday afternoon, but 8s is fine.

Johnston pair dangers to fav in the Vintage

The Vintage Stakes at 14:25 could well revolve around whether Holloway Boy is as good as he looked when winning on his debut in the Chesham, and there seems little reason to doubt that stunning success.

Okay, the runner-up was last of five on his next start, as indeed was the fourth in fact at Ascot on Saturday, but the Ascot time backed up that visual impression and he could be very hard to beat.

I kind of hope he does win, as connections must have turned down big figures - maybe even seven of them - for him after that Ascot win, and the fact that the Aidan O'Brien trio at the five-day stage and July Stakes runner-up Show Respect have not rocked up is very much in his favour.

The one that I think could give him most to do is Dear My Friend, who I thought was hugely impressive under a 6lb penalty in a good time at Beverley, and who is a fair price at around 7/1 on the exchange.

He came late to win on his debut at Carlisle but he made all at Beverley, and I imagine they will look to replicate the forcing tactics here.

The problem is that his similarly twice-raced unbeaten stablemate Dorrnoch Castle has the same run-style, and the trainer (s) will surely be instructing one of those to take their medicine if they both jump sprightly from stalls five and six.

Which one only Mark and Charlie know, and the forward-going Dark Thirty from stall one may have something to say about that, anyway.

Sacred the one to beat in Lennox

I was toying with siding with Sandrine back to 7f in the Lennox Stakes at 15:00, as I think stepping back in trip with a filly who finished third in the Cheveley Park over 6f this season is a good call, and she does get all the allowances here as a 3yo female. The 20/1+ about her looked pretty big.

But the favourite Sacred could take a lot of whacking, going back up in trip after an excellent fifth in the Platinum Jubilee last time, and there is a fair bit of bunched depth behind her, too.

Another chance given to Stone with Davies in the saddle

I looked at the 5f sprint handicap at 16:10 in horror when I saw that Stone Of Destiny was in the race, off a mark of just 84 (he was rated 104 when a good sixth in the Group 2 King George Stakes here last season), with Harry Davies claiming 5lb, and with some new headgear on (this time it is cheekpieces).

Andrew Balding is a very fair 9 from 64 with first-time pieces in recent years.

I fell for him again at Ascot last time when he met trouble in running and was beaten just over 5 lengths.

I vowed there and then the unrequited love affair was at an end but I must admit his price of 14/1 sorely tested me here.

And then got the better of me.

Davies getting on board for the first time is a very interesting angle, not least because of 5lb claim, but because he has got a great tune out of a similarly tricky sort in Shine So Bright (representing the same trainer and owner), on whom he is two from two this season after a first-time hood was applied.

Call me an idiot, but I will take the ridicule and back him at 14/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook. If you take the view that Davies is full value for his clam, as plenty do, then Stone Of Destiny is effectively running off 79 here.

Madness, perhaps in more ways than one. Back him at 14/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Any 12s will be fine, with 10s the cut-off betting point.

No interest in the maiden

Quite why the 2yo 6f maiden at 16:45 is on the box when there are double-digit handicaps taking place afterwards is anyone's guess. Stupidity is the current favourite, as surely bookmakers and punters alike would prefer either of that pair of races to a contest in which there is precious little for, to go on.

That said, nothing jumps out at me in either of the handicaps, which isn't surprising as I haven't got the prices yet (not surprising, admittedly as I am publishing very early). I never understand how some tipsters occasionally put up selections blind.

Ryan Moore has strong claims in both with Crystal Caprice in the 17:20 and Kimngrace in the 17:55 - the latter's second last time has worked out very well with the winner and third winning next time - but they are highly unlikely to be missed in the market when the odds do surface.

I will maybe do an update when they appear.

Good luck.