Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three to back at Cheltenham up to 11/1

• 11/112.00 Ginger Mail is backed to deliver

• 4/15.00 La Malmason is a raw talent

• 11/26.50 each-way proposition can put us in Clover

ITV Racing pack as much live action into their shows as possible and they have added an extra race from Cheltenham, and two from Bangor, to their original schedule for Friday.

The going at Cheltenham is currently soft (though it is heavy in places on the Cross Country course) and I imagine it will stay that way.

There is no more rain due - mind you, there wasn't any forecast for SW London on Tuesday and it sheeted down there all day - but I can't see it drying out too much, even if temperatures are pretty mild.

If so, that could be problematic for some of my fancies, but read on, and I'll explain.

Cheltenham 13:15 - Back Ginger Mail

The 2m1f handicap hurdle at 13:15 has been added to the coverage and it is much welcomed too. There were 27 in the race at the five-day stage and the numbers have held up pretty well to 13 after the overnight stage.

It's a strong handicap with depth, even after the 7s chance Jagwar was quickly withdrawn with a bad scope at 12:44pm Wednesday.

The weights were raised 6lb after the top four came out at the overnight stage, and that was advantageous to Mr Mackay and Wonderful Eagle down the bottom, and there were immediate nibbles for the former, across the board, once the betting came out on Wednesday (he actually opened at 25s in a place).

Those nibbles became a munch and he is now as short as 10s with the Sportsbook. Ship and sailed are the key words there, then, but you can fully see the case for the 4yo from the in-form Twister yard.

The difficult one to gauge in here is obviously Doddiethegreat off a mark of 131, as the unbeaten 7yo was off the track for a long time with a severed tendon before winning at Ascot last time.

He could have 10lb or so in hand given his profile (though quite why I chose 10lb is anyone's guess, and on the bare form he looks no more than fairly handicapped) but I guess that is factored into his price of 3/14.00. Nothing doing there are at that price.

Now, you can make a case for pretty much all of these - I thought 20s poke In This World wasn't knocked about at all at Kempton, looked a bit of a plot job and he was dropped a generous 4lb for it - but Ginger Mail stood out form-wise and on the clock for me. The Sportsbook's 11/112.00 is big enough (though he is 14s and 12s in pockets) to compensate for one my doubt about him.

Namely, the ground.

It was officially soft when he won by 10 lengths at Doncaster last year but Timeform called it good to soft that day and his overall record on this surface concerns me, not least his blow out in Perth in April (I also accept that he runs very well when fresh then regresses).

However, the form of his reappearance neck second at Ayr is working out so well that I am still keen to side with him.

The Ayr winner went on to score easily at Haydock off a 5lb higher mark, and the 3 ¾ length third has gone up 8lb in the weights after a success and a narrow third since.

That handicap was run in a very good time too, and connections presumably think a first-time visor replacing cheekpieces will improve him.

The stable, among the winners of late with three successes since November 29, did the same headgear switch when Arnica won at Perth in May. Fingers crossed it works again, and that the ground doesn't hold him back.

Hopefully, I am just being pessimistic and we have two dry days and good to soft ground.

The Sportsbook are paying four places but I am happy to play win-only at 12.011/1 or bigger on the Exchange. And he is also 11s with the Sportsbook if you want to play there.

I suspect he may drift if the ground rides very deep, but I'll settle at Betfair SP, as per usual with Exchange bets.

The 12s chance Lebowski is in a five-runner race at Newcastle on Thursday if that meeting goes ahead after a morning 7:30am inspection.

Cheltenham 13:50 - Back La Malmason and Walk In Clover

We have also 13 in the 2m4f+ mares' handicap chase at 13:50 and it was no great surprise to see Gavin Cromwell's lightly-raced La Malmason head the betting at 4/15.00. She could prove to be very nicely handicapped off 126 after shaping very well against much classier horses in the shape of Found A Fifty and Colonel Mustard in a Beginners' Chase at Down Royal last time.

That is 4lb higher than her Irish mark (another 2lb and she wouldn't have been eligible for this 0-125) but that Down Royal run, and her novices' hurdle form at Punchestown in January 2023, suggests this half-sister to the 166-rated Stage Star has more raw talent than her lowly mark would suggest.

Cromwell's horses aren't pulling up any trees in Ireland at the moment but that doesn't overly-concern me. He is five from 23 in the UK this season and his overall strike rate of 20pc at Cheltenham is none too shabby.

I actually don't think the 4s is a bad price (fixed odds or on the Exchange), and the same applies to Walk In Clover, who is a very solid each-way proposition at the Sportsbook's 11/26.50, four places. Again, he is a point bigger elsewhere, so do what you have to do, but the Betfair price is more than fair.

She is another horse who may ideally want better ground but she has run well on all three starts here, her unseat at the last in October against My Mate Mozzie included. The step up in trip after an excellent third over 2m last time is another plus. This is a horse who stays 3m.

I was going stop just short of tipping them both, as I may be underestimating the depth of the race and I don't like playing at the top end of the market, but as I couldn't put you off backing La Malmason win-only, and Walk In Clover each-way, at the current odds, then I am happy to front up.

I'll be backing both, as well sticking the pair in a reverse forecast come the day.

Just a note that the 10s chance Game On For Glory is entered in a six-runner race at Warwick on Thursday and they'll be a Rule 4 should she go there instead. There is an inspection at 7.30am in the morning.

Cheltenham 14:25 - No bet

Storm Control is a fair price at 11/26.50 in the veterans' 2m4f handicap chase at 14:25, though he does tend to need his reappearances and there are potentially four rivals for the lead should they want to go forward in him.

Those worries prevented me from putting him up but the stable are in good form and he is on a very exploitable mark of 129.

He traded at 1.041/25 in running off a mark of 137 when second in the Skybet Chase in January 2022 and this dual course winner also ran far better than it appears in the Paddy Power here last season. He hit 5.69/2 in the run, having gone off at a Betfair SP of [128.13).

Cheltenham 15:00 - No bet

We lost the top two at the overnight stage in the Cross Country Handicap at 15:00, with Gordon Elliott deciding to leave Conflated and Coko Beach at home. The weights have risen as a result, though seven of the 13 are still racing from out of the handicap.

Elliott's Galvin is a fair price at around 9/25.50 but I'll leave this stuff and nonsense to others.

Cheltenham 15:35 - No bet

In the 3m handicap hurdle at 15:35, I came very close to sticking up Captain Morgs at 14/115.00 in Monday's ante-post column, but bottled it on account that I didn't know if they were going to confirm him on the soft ground.

As it was, both he and stablemate Bold Endeavour were only confirmed at the last minute on Wednesday morning - well after the other Henderson runners earlier on the card had been rubber-stamped as runners - and at that point Nico de Boinville was jocked up on both horses.

De Boinville has been put on Captain Morgs, and I hope you were braver than my tipping conservatism and took the 14s on Monday (to be perfectly honest, I did have £35.71 on the horse at 14s late on Tuesday afternoon after a betting re-think).

He is now 6/17.00, just cut from 7s on Wednesday afternoon, and I suppose the shortening in price is just about justified - and probably his true odds - given it is now a non-runner, no-bet scenario.

The case for him is that he is only 3lb higher then when winning this race by seven lengths last year, he ran very well over fences last time, and has won on officially soft ground.

However, I'd be lying if I said the going didn't concern me - all his best runs have come on a decent surface - and the strength of the race has held up well from the five-day stage, plus the fact that some of the Henderson horses have been running shockers in the last fortnight.

At 7s, it is a reluctant, though correct, pass.

However, if he is still the same price (or maybe a point or two bigger), and the early Friday times suggest the ground isn't too bad, I will probably add to that modest ante-post, win-only investment.

The two ITV handicaps at Bangor have both cut up badly, from 20 and 19 entries to just seven and six runners respectively.

That may have something to do with the going, which is heavy.

In fact, on Wednesday morning the BHA site said the ground was saturated with standing water in places, with the river level remaining high. That didn't sound too enticing, though it is a dry forecast from here on in.

With those kind of conditions, it makes for limited punting value - Aintree was nigh on unraceable on Saturday, and it was dismal viewing - and the layers were slow to price up on Wednesday.

I can fully see why First Lord De Cuet's opening price of 11/26.50 in a place in the 13:30 was taken though as he has a second and a first from his two outings on heavy, and he was just being niggled into when smacking one and tumbling over four out at Cheltenham last time.

He wouldn't be the most natural jumper admittedly, but he was dropped 1lb for that run last time and he is down to a mark of 127, some 5lb lower than when second to Monbeg Genius at Chepstow in January.

I'd rather be a backer than a layer at the Sportsbook's 7/24.50 - well, that is obvious as playing at 2/71.29 is not for many, and rightly so - but those Bangor conditions do seem appalling and not necessarily punter-friendly.

Samuel Jackson races off his lowest ever mark of 110 in 2m7f handicap hurdle at 14:05, and he is also a course winner on heavy, so maybe the 16s on offer about him is okay.

Indeed, his Bangor form figures read 13333, which is quite impressive when you consider he has generally been as reliable as a stray cat in the last two years.

Mind you, he was beaten 24 lengths, and was third of just four, in one of those runs (and 15 lengths in another), so lies, damn lies and statistics and all that.

I thought I'd better file this early, as I am one of those many people (according to my doctor) who have failed to shift a rather significant, lingering lurgy for the past month - this cough is off the scale - and I am only a shade of odds-on to see Thursday.

Luckily, he prescribed a meaty red Merlot, instead of lemsip, to beat it off, so I am off re-stock.

God bless the NHS.

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