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Testing ground at Chester for Friday's racing
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Pride Of America is Tony's bet of the day in the 14:05
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Two tips for the feature race, the Chester Cup
At least after Wednesday's rain we know what we are dealing with at Chester on Friday - properly testing ground, with maybe a little more to come in the next 24 hours as well - and that makes it tipping-friendly.
Certainty of going is the punters' friend, which is why unnecessary watering gets so many backs up. I suppose Chester by Friday, even with fresh strips of ground being used, could be very churned up, though.
Red Mirage appeals and Boradman has an obvious chance
Red Mirage would have been very interesting on his debut for John Quinn on his reappearance record alone - he is unbeaten on his first start in each of his three seasons of racing - and he also won this 13:30 race for Andrew Balding last year, but his record to date suggests he would want better ground (he has never been risked on worse than officially good to soft going) unless his new handler thinks differently. And he is drawn 10 of 13.
The first firm up made him a 14/1 chance and they were certainly dangling a carrot. The carrot has been duly nibbled, and the 14s is no more.
There are six forward-goers in here, with Wobwobwob likely to win that battle from trap one, and that pace set-up could suit Boardman.
I wouldn't say this dual course winner has been teed up for this prize - you'd be a bit silly to do that when a bad draw can scupper the best-laid of plans - but he certainly shaped as if primed for a short-term win when not ridden too enterprisingly (he says politely) when a closing fifth at Haydock last time.
If he gets the breaks in running then he has an obvious chance off a steadily declining mark, but I was hoping for a bigger price in what isa very competitive 14-runner handicap. He is 9/2 across the board, which is fair, but not outstanding.
Pride is well-handicapped and will love the ground
Chester, 14:05 - Tony's Tip: Pride Of America @ 8.07/1+
However, I am getting involved the 1m2f handicap at 14:05, and hopefully Pride Of America will get an uncontested lead and stay there.
Back him at 8.07/1 or bigger, or 7/1 with the Sportsbook. Even if he is available at 15/2 elsewhere, the Sportsbook may well be the place to go as I think he is a shortener.
He has had a wind op (more on that shortly) since we last saw him a close-up sixth over 1m4f in a Listed race at Saint Cloud in March - the trip may have also strained his stamina in the testing ground - and his earlier all-the-way Kempton win in January makes him well handicapped off 102 here.
The lead looks his for the taking here from stall four - I can't see a serious pace rival - he will love the ground and, of course, he is one from one around here.
That came at this meeting last year when he made all to win a 13-runner handicap by 5 ½ lengths and I really like his profile and set-up here.
It has to be a worry of sorts that he has had three wind ops now, but on the plus side he has won on both of his starts immediately after the previous two breathing tweaks.
He is the bet of the day.
No bets either side of the day's feature race
I'd prefer Poker Face (6/1+ on the exchange) over the favourite Point Lonsdale in the Huxley Stakes at 14:40 - with no confirmed front-runner, a messy, slowly-run tactical affair could help him last home in the ground - but I have no real reason to force a bet.
I am not sure why a six-runner 1m4f maiden at 15:45 is on the box - there are 16 and 17-runner handicaps that end the card, either of which should be in its place - but I suppose it is a valuable race and it is sponsored by Boodles and that trumps the Levy yield of putting on competitive racing that punters love (though they generally do their money, admittedly), it would seem.
Calling out two bets in the Chester Cup
Chester, 15:15 - Tony's Tip: Call My Bluff @ 10.09/1+
Anyway, on to the big betting race of the day, the Chester Cup at 15:15.
Call My Bluff is 2lb well-in after his second to the highly-progressive Novel Legend (top weight and a strong favourite in the Chester Plate that ends the card) in the soft at Newbury last time and he has to be respected.
He was beaten 6 lengths at Newbury, but he did finish nine lengths clear of the third and his course form figures around here read 1-3-2 (the third coming in the Plate here last year).
He must be on your shortlist, even if he may have up to contend with five pace rivals if his jockey opts to go forward from stall two.
He will be fine sitting off the speed though, and I have to have him onside at 10.09/1 or bigger. He is 10s in a few places, so that's looks an attainable goal. I'll settle at Betfair SP, anyway.
Chester, 15:15 - Tony's Tip: Calling The Wind @ 12.011/1+
The Grand Visir, not seen since running in this race last year, was interesting at around 33/1 but the ground would worry you for him, and my second dart is Calling The Wind at 12.011/1 or bigger. Again, he is 11/1 in a few places in the marketplace, so that's a fair guide to aim at.
He is a strong traveller who will be ridden for luck and to pounce late - well, Jamie Spencer is on board, after all - and he is ground-versatile too, though of course his soft ground form (notably his 1m4f November Handicap second in 2021 off a 3lb higher mark than this) is the most pertinent here. It may dry out, though.
The Queen Alexandra Stakes and Cesarewitch third stays this trip thoroughly and he shaped well enough on his return at Wolverhampton in March, beaten just a length, after which he was dropped another 1lb to 100 (his peak rating is 105).
He has no course experience but hopefully we get a Spencer waiting ride that is executed to perfection.
Very good Ascot race but no bet for me
ITV are also showing a 7f handicap at Ascot at 13:50, but unfortunately the field has cut up to just six runners, hugely disappointing given there is over 23k to the winner.
The going there is a mixture of soft and heavy, though the weather looks dry up until Saturday. The course dodged a bullet by missing the torrential downpours in the south on Thursday evening.
To be fair, it is a very good race, featuring progressive 3yo handicappers, but I couldn't see a bet or an angle into the contest, though maybe Beverley winner In These Shoes could be the pacesetter, though I wouldn't be dogmatic about that.
I'll stick to the three Chester plays.