We have nine live races on ITV this week, with the highlight the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock. We look to Ascot as well as Kempton on a busy Saturday.
The weather outlook looks pretty settled, with a small drop of rain expected on Saturday, but I am working on the basis that good to soft is possible at Haydock while Ascot is likely to remain good ground.
I wasn't overly keen to get involved in the first two races at Haydock. The 13:15 Betfair Daily Tips On Betting.Betfair Ascendant Stakes sees Naval Power 1.84/5 strong at the top of the market, and he will take all the beating.
He is miles ahead on official ratings, and something would need to improve a good chunk (almost ten pounds) to have a say, and the market won't miss him. The 13:45 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Superior Mile Stakes sees Aldaary 2.01/1 heading affairs over Reach For The Moon 2.89/5, and again I thought the market had it spot on.
September Stakes can go to Haggas and Hamish
The 14:05 September Stakes is likely to see William Haggas' Hamish 7.06/1 line up to defend his Crown from last year, and he looks a fair price despite his stablemate Dubai Honour 2.68/5 lurking at the top of the market. Dubai Honour has never run on the AW, and this would be a quick turnaround just 17 days after a hard race in the Juddmonte International at York, so it's no guarantee he even turns up.
He takes up a fair chunk of this market, and given this race usually cuts up, Hamish could easily be installed at the top of the market should his stablemate defect.
His price is probably inflated because of his defeat in the Floodlit Stakes here in November (Dubai Future finished ahead of him that day). Still, he has always been a horse best when fresh, and given that defeat came 16 days after his excellent effort in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup on Champions day, it can probably be forgiven.
William Haggas again for the second year running would have had him primed for the Ebor, but the ground again went against him. This was his alternative last year, and there's little doubt they will use this contest again with sufficient time between Saturday and Champions Day at Ascot.
He is rock solid and arrives on the back of an excellent victory at Chester, and the 121-day break between that run and this should only be viewed positively.
Risky play, but Soulcombe is still of significant interest.
Soulcombe 6.05/1 was an excellent winner for us 14 days ago when demolishing the field in the Melrose Handicap at York, and he has two entries on Saturday. Still, the 14:20 Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap is the race I expect him to run in.
William Haggas sent Favourite Moon to this contest after running in the Melrose Handicap, and he has been well represented in this contest in the last ten years. In stark comparison, he has not had a runner in the last ten years in the 14:55 Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap, for which Soulcombe currently heads the market at the shorter price of 3.7511/4.
The two races are both worth £51,540 to the winner, and this looks like the softer option. He is a whopping 14 pounds higher in the handicap for his eased-down four-length victory at York, but he could have won by any amount, and this track where he recorded a demolition job over a trip too short back in June is a positive.
Haggas has Tamilla 6.05/1 entered in here (sole entry for the weekend) and Post Impressionist (who ran seven days ago and is an unlikely runner), so there is a chance that he could split them up.
Still, I am going to rely on history here and with Soulcombe his best chance of landing this pot in a race that usually cuts up - he is worth chancing.
Happy to hold out for the draw at Ascot
Ascot's 15:10 National Racehorse Week Handicap looks competitive, and as always, with these events, Fresh 8.07/1 heads the market. There are lots to like. Star Of Orion 12.011/1 took a step back in the right direction with a seasonal best at Newmarket last time, while Dance Fever 11.010/1, Inver Park 9.08/1 and Bopedro 26.025/1 all make some sort of appeal. Still, I am happy to wait for the draw and the pace map for this contest.
Kinross and Rohaan to relish strong Sprint Cup pace
The feature contest of the day is the 15:30 Betfair Haydock Sprint Cup, and I have no qualms with Hackwood Stakes winner Minzaal 4.57/2 at the top of the market. We haven't seen the best of him yet, but I feel he may be a horse better seen when tackling seven furlongs.
After all, his Newbury victory on his penultimate start was only a Group 3, and he was behind a handful of these in the Platinum Jubilee.
Naval Crown 5.59/2 has done little wrong this season without giving the impression he is a stand-out top-class sprinter. He has one way of going, so expect him to be blasting off from the outset and is one of a few who could ensure this is a good test at the trip.
Art Power 11.010/1 is likely to be at the forefront of the pace, and he was undone by the seven-furlong trip in the City Of York Stakes on seasonal return but did remarkably well despite racing wide.
He was excellent in the Champion Sprint at Ascot when drawn on the wrong side (away from the action) of the track and racing alone, and on that evidence, he has little to find with today's favourite Minzaal.
It was a similar story last term in the July Cup when on the unfavoured side of the track, but it is hard to get away from a below-par run in this contest last season behind Emaraaty Ana 7.513/2.
Brad The Brief 11.010/1, Go Bears Go 13.012/1, and Flaming Rib 34.033/1 are all possible contributors to the pace in what is likely to be a well-run contest.
Two below-par efforts at York means Rohaan 9.08/1 can be forgiven for his latest run over seven furlongs in the City Of York Stakes behind Kinross, and he was a big eye-catcher off of a stop-start gallop behind Highfield Princess in the Prix Maurice de Gheest.
He will have a guaranteed pace to aim at today, with few of these likely to hang around, and he has won here at Haydock. He probably hit the front too soon at Newbury, so I am happy to overlook that and today looks to set up perfectly.
The other I want on my side is Kinross 9.08/1 at the same price. He won with any amount in hand at York in the City Of York Stakes, and he has taken two runs to really get motoring this term.
He was a huge eye-catcher in the Champion Sprint last term at Ascot when getting no clear run on multiple occasions and still got up only to be beaten just four lengths by Creative Force (only three lengths behind Minzaal).
He is a strong traveller, and this strong pace will suit his racing style. He is a winner at this course and won't mind any easing in the ground (preferable), and he probably should have gotten his head in front more often than he has.
Ventura Diamond 67.066/1 is a huge price, given he is another that will appreciate this strongly run affair, but I can't get passed how much interference Kinross suffered at Ascot last year and still was able to pick him up. He might be out of his depth here, but he is one to keep in mind for a soft ground autumn campaign.
Too much uncertainty around Lavazza Stakes
The final race on the ITV Racing card is the 15:45 Lavazza Stakes at Ascot, and with plenty of promising unexposed three-year-olds, I am happy to hold fire for now. William Haggas' La Yakel 10.09/1 is on the radar off of this opening rating of 87 - he is a race-by-race improver. Thundering 8.07/1 and Dark Moon Rising 15.014/1 are both of interest, but it's a waiting game for now.