Coral Eclipse Ante-Post: Tony Calvin's thoughts on all six contenders

• Paddington edging favouritism ahead of Emily

• Six entries but will we lose one or two?

• Tony Calvin previews Saturday's Coral Eclipse

Emily Upjohn has been the favourite for the Coral Eclipse (15:40 at Sandown on Saturday) ever since her comeback win in the Coronation Cup on June 2nd, but the strong sense was she was only heading the market on sufferance until Paddington was confirmed for the race following his stunning win in the St James's Palace Stakes 18 days later.

The last traded prices before Betfair suspended their market early on Monday morning were 2.77/4 Emily Upjohn and 3.02/1 Paddington, so those that took the chance that the Ballydoyle colt would be confirmed for the race later on in the day were relieved.

The 30 entries have now been whittled down to just six, with Paddington still in the race, but a quick word on the ground situation before we kick off the analysis.

The going at Sandown is currently good (good to firm in places) and watering was due to re-commence on Monday for their two-day meeting starting on Friday.

However, one site has 10mm of rain landing on Tuesday before a hot, dry week sets in and that has made it problematical for clerk Andrew Cooper, who has decided to put the irrigation on hold for now and see what nature provides him with.

I just hope owners and trainers don't try to pressure him through the week over the inevitable watering situation down the line.

Will Paddington prove to be O'Brien's star 3yo?

After Auguste Rodin's somewhat underwhelming win in the Irish Derby on Sunday, I'd be of the opinion that Paddington is Aidan O'Brien's star 3yo at the moment, and it looks like the plan is for him to get the chance to prove it this weekend, all being well.

The improvement this colt has made since winning a handicap off 97 at Naas in March has been something else and he made another big leap forward from his Irish 2,000 Guineas win when destroying Chaldean at Royal Ascot.

The issue is whether he can raise his game again, against the older horses, as he steps up to the 1m2f for the first time and his run-style and pedigree gives you every hope he can.

He is by Siyouni, whose gets plenty of 1m2f+ winners (including St Mark's Basilica, who won this very race in 2021) out of a Montjeu mare who won at up to 1m5f in France. And a feature of Paddington's victories has been just how strong he has been through the line over 1m.

He just looks a very serious tool and there is no surprise in this quarter at least (and I appreciate the opening paragraph looks like an after-time nightmare) that the Sportsbook now make him the 5/42.25 favourite, with Emily Upjohn at 13/82.63.

However, he is not a certain runner. Read on.

Trip and ground no issues for Emily

Emily Upjohn ran inexplicably badly in the King George last July - she did pull very hard but surely something else was at play there - but the application of the hood (a move which the stable excel with) has seen her game move to a new level.

She gagged up in the fillies and mares' Group 1 at Ascot in October and then bolted up at Epsom on her return, showing a fine burst of pace to put the race to bed very quickly and being value for more than the official 1 ¾ length defeat of Westover.

Given the tactical speed she showed at Epsom, it is hard to see the step down to 1m2f bothering this course and distance winner and she is at home on quick ground or with some ease, so the weather and the clerk can do as they wish.

I am sure the sponsors and the course will put a brave face on as regards the numbers, and they will rightly point to the fact that have got pretty much every horse they were expecting - John Gosden said the best-when-fresh Mostahdaf was not going to be turned out again quickly, straight after his stunning Ascot win - but it is still disappointing when such a valuable Group 1 can muster only six entries at the five-day stage.

And it could be one or two less come Saturday.

Surprised if O'Brien runs both his entries

The horse Mostahdaf beat by 4 lengths in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes, Luxembourg, was perhaps a surprise confirmation. He is 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook, which tells me the market thinks the three-time Group 1 winner is firmly odds-against to run.

On the Nick Luck podcast on Monday morning, Aidan O'Brien didn't even mention the horse, while also stating that a final decision on Paddington's participation will be made on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A standard line perhaps, but worth bearing in mind.

Maybe Luxembourg, the only confirmed front-runner among the sextet, is just in the race as a back-up in case Paddington doesn't please them sufficiently in the next 24 to 48 hours but, either way, it may be best to hold off backing either of that pair.

Perhaps they will fire both bullets at Sandown, but I'd be surprised if they did. Mind you, if I was a layer, I wouldn't be offering Luxembourg at 10/111.00. Second-guessing running plans of O'Brien is fraught with danger.

The exchange price is currently 16.015/1.

Quick ground a slight concern for Anmaat

Owen Burrows will be hoping for a Tuesday deluge for Anmaat, and some liberal watering thereafter, as he seems convinced his horse wants some juice in the ground.

He handles quick ground perfectly fine - indeed has form figures of 1213 on officially good to firm, and Timeform have him winning on firm at Doncaster in 2021 - but the trainer' s thinking does leave a doubt as to whether the 7/18.00 poke will run.

As much as that seems crazy given he will face a maximum five rivals for a 750k race. And he is a horse I rate.

To be fair to Burrows, the horse's improvement has come with dig in the ground - he was impressive when winning the Prix Dollar at Longchamp in deep conditions on Arc weekend, with West Wind Blows over 4 lengths away in third - and he reckons his charge only just got away with it when winning the Prix d'Ispahan on ground the Timeform posse called good last time.

Burrows said the Longchamp ground that day was "as quick as we would want to go in", so that has to worry you if were considering backing him ante-post.

Outsider is no forlorn hope

The 20/121.00 poke West Wind Blows comes here in decent nick after winning at Longchamp and a good second to Pyledriver in the Hardwicke (after being gelded in May after an underwhelming return at Newmarket) but he has to step it another level as he drops back in trip.

Does he have the boot to win a race of this class over 1m2f on quick ground? You'd have thought not but what will he face on Saturday afternoon?

I actually don't think he is a no-hoper at 26.025/1 on the exchange. To trot out the old cliché, maybe gelding has made a man of him and there could be more to come.

Dubai could be the overpriced runner of the sextet

It would be a great training performance from William Haggas to win with this 9/110.00 chance Dubai Honour, as we last saw him finishing third at Sha Tin in late April, having previously won a brace of Group 1s in Australia by wide margins.

But Haggas is a masterful handler and he saddled Addeybb to finish second to St Mark's Basilica in this race in 2021 after being Down Under and winning the same Randwick race that Dubai Honour did in April. Addeybb didn't also take in Hong Kong on the way back, though.

However, he is arguably the overpriced one on form in the race at 9/110.00 - he is currently three points bigger on the exchange in a light market, though - but, again, his record suggests he wants it softer than he is likely to get.

This race could all hinge on how much rain they get on Tuesday - hopefully they get all of what is forecast on some sites, and plenty more besides, so Cooper doesn't get his ears chewed off by trainers - and, as such, it is a difficult race to play at this stage. It's a blurred picture, as it stands.

That, and the Tuesday/Wednesday decision on Paddington.

Right, I am not around on Tuesday as I have a Jolly Boys Outing in Brighton - it is basically a Racing Post re-union from the late 80s - but I will look at the other Saturday ITV races when prices appear later and maybe do a separate piece if time allows.

Go well.

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