Becher Chase Big Race Verdict: Go for the stamina with Cromwell at Aintree

• Becher Chase on the highlights on ITV this Saturday and four places on Sportsbook

• Plenty of pace forecast and some trainers badly out of form

• Alan Dudman delivers his Big Race Verdict column for Aintree on Saturday 

Racing... Only Bettor. Listen to Betfair Tingle Creek day preview now.

Vango heads the market for season return

Four places on the Sportsbook, Mr Vango back for his seasonal return and the Aintree fences used for the Becher Chase (14:40) will provide one of the Saturday spectacles alongside the Betfair Tingle Creek at Sandown.

Rain is due for Friday and Saturday in the north west and basing bets on soft and maybe more testing is the way to go.

On the eve of Friday luncheon, Mr Vango was a 4/15.00 favourite and he'd need plenty of rain while the only mover in the market on the Sportsbook was White Rhino, who drifted from 13/27.50 to 15/28.50.

Leading contenders for Aintree

A good place to start is with the favourite Mr Vango, whose trainer Sara Bradstock will hope he takes to the famous fences well as they'll be thinking about the National next spring.

He did score fresh last term at Sandown and rounded off his campaign at Uttoxeter with a victory, and brave one at that, in the Midlands National. Uttoxeter described the ground as good to soft that day, and if you think Mr Vango likes it on the better side, forget it, as there was absolutely no way there was any good that day at Uttoxeter where the watering can was sprayed liberally to say the least.

The more rain the better for The V Man.

I put up Bioluminescence earlier this week in the antepost column, so I am pleased she's still in, although typing her name is proving somewhat of a challenge after 200 goes.

She is the up-and-comer, lightly-raced and potentially still progressive from her current mark of 147 and in receipt of a tiny slither of weight from Mr Vango.

Her stamina claims seem sound, like the favourite, and she performed well in heavy ground in a Grade 2 last winter in Ireland. She jumped well on that occasion and she could take the Liverpool fences in her stride.

Another of the main contenders is Gaboriot off a featherweight - and off just 126. He has a good record over the National fences with a couple of placed runs here, but both were over the shorter Grand Sefton trip of 2m5f, and I suspect his best may be over slightly shorter if the ground does ride thoroughly testing on a murky old Liverpool afternoon.

He also looks more exposed with his profile.

Pace forecast

Front-runners: Mr Vango, Monbeg Genius, Bill Baxter, Mahons Glory, Val Dancer.

Prominent racers: Mr Vango, Bioluminescence, Monbeg Genius, Twig, Bill Baxter, Roi Mage, White Rhino, Val Dancer, Westerninthepark.

Mid-division: White Rhino?, Galia Des Liteaux.

Hold-up: Galia Des Liteaux? Excello,

Trainer form

Gavin Cromwell last 14 days: 1-61 at 2%.

Jonjo O'Neill last 14 days: 0-1 and this term 3-58 chasers at 5%.

Dan Skelton last 14 days 9-65 at 14% and Aintree last five seasons 25-176 at 14%.

Ben Pauling last 14 days: 5-30 at 17%. Aintree record 4-53 at 7%.

Warren Greatrex last 14 days: 5-17 at 29%, and 1-14 in five seasons at Aintree.

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero last 14 days: 2-32 at 6%. Aintree record 3-47 at 6% in five seasons.

Mel Rowley last 14 days 1-10 at 10%.

Olly Murphy last 14 days 7-51 at 14% and Aintree last five seasons 10-89 at 11%.

The Aintree Factor

With Warren Greatrex creeping into a bit of form, Bill Baxter potentially could come in for support although he unseated early in the Topham last April, he has got an Aintree win to his name as he landed the Topham in 2023. He's one from two here, but both over 2m5f.

Second in the Grand Sefton, third in a Grand Sefton and an unseat in the Foxhunters reads Gaboriot's record around here and his most recent run saw Excello and Mahons Glory behind in third and fourth over the National fences.

Outsider chances

Val Dancer, known as the big dancer from the little yard, is a Welsh Grand National winner off 126 last winter, and while no one saw the race due to the fog, he remains of interest with a mark floating around that rating from 130. He didn't run too badly in the Grand National Trial last winter at Haydock but he wasn't seen afterwards.

A return for the season at Carlisle looked to be very much needed over 3m2f and I expect a better run. Do I see him winning? No.

Twig scored last time out but he struggled for winning form last term and Roi Mage is so old, some of his race reports are in Latin.

Monbeg Genius is a 12/113.00 price and was pulled up in the Grand National itself last season. He was impressive at Uttoxeter, but this will be his first run of the season and backing a Jonjo horse at the moment is anyone's guess. 

1-2-3-Verdict

I am sticking with Bioluminescence at 6/17.00 in the betting, although the stat with Gavin Cromwell has to be a cause for concern with just one win at the time of writing from a massive 61 runners. Stats and runs are there to be broken and Cromwell is too good a trainer to be cold for long and Cromwell is usually one of the chief nourishers in the winner's list feast. 

With plenty of pace forecast and barely a hold-up horse in sight, you cannot be mithered in doubt here with a horse holding stamina questions, nor a runner and the potential for soft ground. That means Mr Vango has to be in there with a good run as he stays, stays and stays, much like Dr Syntax's old horse Drizzle.

Val Dancer might be good enough for a place with his ability to stay, plus he's got a great weight and he can still perform to a level from 130 for Mel Rowley.

1) Bioluminescence

2) Mr Vango

3) Val Dancer

Now read more tips and previews for Saturday here!