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Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle the feature race on ITV on Saturday
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Crambo up against it with history at his feet
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Alan Dudman looks at the form, pace and angles in his latest Big Race Verdict
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Long Walk Hurdle
Ascot, Saturday, 14:25
Live on ITV Racing
Elliott chasing first Long Walk Hurdle
The latest step towards the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is the Long Walk Hurdle, Saturday's Grade 1 at Ascot and the quest to unearth a staying star to liven up this sluggish division rolls on.
History tells us this is a race in which three-time winners has been a common occurrence. Big Buck's mopped up his trio from 2009 to 2011, swiftly followed by Reve De Sivola in the three years that ensued, and then Paisley Park garnered a threepeat from 2018 to 2022. Wise wags might say all three would have a chance in this division if they were to come out from their retirement homes.
Trainer Gordon Elliott senses the need for a new stayer and Honesty Policy, at just five years of age, is the young gun blessed with the green and gold of JP.
His claims? He's a Grade winner of the Mersey over 2m4f and had a dabble at 3m for the first time at Punchestown last season as a novice.
This year he steps out of novice company to run with the big dogs, and Elliott said after his win in Liverpool last spring: "He's very well named, he's a tough horse with a very good attitude. I'd say he was probably going as quick as he could the whole way, so we're absolutely delighted with him. He'll definitely go over further next year; staying is his game as you could see."
He heads the Betfair Sportsbook betting at 9/43.25, just from Impose Toi, and its a race Elliott has yet to win and his hurdler is an unknown quantity, rated 155p by Timeform, bottom of their ratings maybe, but the only horse in the field with the 'p' for potential improvement
Long Walk Hurdle: This week's market movers
Strong Leader's price altered from 11/26.50 into 9/25.50 on Friday morning, as there wasn't much happening with the front two in the betting, while double figures on Jet Blue is pushing near to single figures, with a move from 14/115.00 into 11/112.00.
Impose Toi then drifted slightly, while two-time winner of the race Crambo is out from 8/19.00 to 9/110.00. A reminder three places on the Sportsbook for each-waysies.
Long Walk Hurdle: Key form lines
The Long Walk savant Crambo with two wins under the belt in the race and while Crambo is unlikely to send shivers down the racing spines of Teahupoo, Ballyburn and Bob Olinger looking to March, his record in the race is of merit and at 9/110.00 it's arguably a little on the large side.
It would be a major worry how he trailed in last in the Ascot Hurdle on his recent outing. Perhaps needed, perhaps not. He beat some old stagers in this race 12 months ago and helped by Strong Leader bombing out, so there are enough risks attached.
Strong Leader's second to Impose Toi in the Coral Long Distance Hurdle was his second run of the campaign and backed up the inspired Sean Bowen ride to land the Wetherby West Yorkshire Hurdle. He does meet Impose Toi on better terms, but he's had a couple of hard races already and I am less keen on his chances.
Impose Toi, up to 3m this term and two from two, the claims are obvious and the weather conditions this week will not be a hindrance as he has proven himself him soft.
Jet Blue once landed an Albert Bartlett Trial at Cheltenham by 6L but then was beaten 30L in the potato race itself and is fit after a second in November in the Prix Serge Landon - Grand Prix d'Automne.
Long Walk Hurdle: Tactics
FRONT RUNNERS: Beauport, Potters Charm.
PROMINENT: Crambo, Colonel Mustard, Gwennie May Boy, Honesty Policy, Jet Blue, Potters Charm, Strong Leader, Altobelli. Doddiethegreat.
MID-DIVISION: Honesty Policy.
HOLD-UP: Gwennie May Boy, Honesty Policy? Impose Toi, Doddiethegreat?
Long Walk Hurdle: Trainer form
Gordon Elliott: Last 14 days 16-60 at 27%. Ascot in five years 2-6 at 33%.
Nicky Henderson: Last 14 days 7-33 at 21%. Ascot in five years 21-102 at 21%.
Olly Murphy: Last 14 days 4-33 at 12%. Ascot in five years 2-29 at 7%.
Harry Fry: last 14 days 0-12. Ascot in five years 11-47 at 24%.
Fergal O'Brien: Last 14 days 3-33 at 9%. Ascot in five years 6-41 at 14%.
Lorna Fowler: Last 14 days 0-1.
Twiston-Davies duo: Last 14 days 6-24 at 25%.
Long Walk Hurdle: Is there an each-way angle in?
Beauport, at 22/123.00, ran in the Grand National, so he'll not lack for stamina and his second in the Rendlesham Hurdle last winter in a Grade 2 saw him as the 2/13.00 favourite. Now, it could be a complete disaster switching back from fences, but he is fit, can make the running and might get left alone and there could be worse 22/123.00 chances.
He needs to make it a test for sure from the front and with a win in the Berkshire National on good ground over 3m5f here, stamina is clearly his game. He'd be nowhere near the Stayers' Hurdle in March, but we don't need to worry about that for now.
Colonel Mustard is a tough sort and in fine form, but is best trip is over shorter so at 20/121.00 the answer to him each-way is no. And a firm no at that.
As mentioned, Jet Blue's 14s went in the market moves and considering he was an Albert Bartlett contender at one stage and was 5/16.00 for that race at the Festival, the simple maths tell you this easier and he's double the price.
Long Walk Hurdle: Big Race Verdict and 1-2-3 prediction
With Crambo's credentials perhaps dimmed by age and a lacklustre run last time, I am going for youth and Honesty Policy. Sometimes it can be dangerous backing a horse simply as the division needs a star, but he should stay and is stepping out of novice company with a decent Timeform figure and a 'p'.
My outsiders are Jet Blue, simply as he was a 5s chance at the festival last year over 3m and as a Frenchie, he has form in wet conditions, and Beauport.
1. Honesty Policy
2. Jet Blue
3. Beauport
Back Honesty Policy in the 14:25 at Ascot