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Royal Ascot one-two lock horns again at Newmarket
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Aidan O'Brien out to win Falmouth for first time since 2017
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Alan Dudman delivers his 1-2-3 verdict on Friday's big race
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Can Cinderella arrive at the Group 1 ball?
The older horses in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes have a sheen of vulnerability and the three-year-olds have a fair record in the contest with seven winning since 2010. That said, there was a winning spree of four-year-olds with five on the spin from 2011 to 2015.
Cinderella's Dream and Crimson Advocate lock horns and fetlocks again as they were the one-two in the Duke Of Cambridge. Running Lion was fourth in that.
Tactically from the D of C, Cinderella's Dream and Crimson Advocate were both held up, and Running Lion set the pace which was described as even. Crimson Advocate produced a storming run from off the pace, and came from a similar position to Cinderella's Dream, whom I initially thought was given too much to do.
The winner clocked 11.88 in the final furlong and was the only runner to dip inside 12 seconds from seven to eight.
Quite why Crimson Advocate is 11/43.75 and bigger than Cinderella's Dream is a mystery. The Wathnan avarice is of course geared to those Royal Ascot winners, but she won fair and square and loved the fast going as a former Yankee.
Elmalka is held by Cinderella's Dream on their Dahlia efforts. Elmalka was second in that and subsequently fourth behind Sosie in the Prix d'Ispahan.
She hasn't quite kicked on from her 1,000 Guineas triumph 12 months ago where she recorded a Timeform rating of 111. In five runs since, she has only improved on that figure once with 113 in the Sun Chariot.
Who is the pick of the three-year-olds?
Donnacha O'Brien won the Falmouth with Porta Fortuna, a star three-year-old filly, 12 months ago and he's looking to do it again with Atsila.
The Betfair Sportsbook doesn't particularly rate her chances at 22/123.00, and she needs to improve a lot from her seventh in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Her win in the Athasi Stakes Group 3 at the Curragh in May was boosted by Cercene's subsequent Royal Ascot win, and the third from the Curragh (Barnavara) has also won at Group 3 level since.
She holds entries in the Nassau, and the Matron Stakes, so they clearly are game for another crack at a Group 1, but her form would be in need of a massive injection of improvement and she hasn't faced anything quicker than officially good thus far.
It is a tricky one to weigh up as she might outrun her 22/123.00 price.
Father O'Brien, head of the Ballydoyle Parish, has surprisingly gone without a Falmouth victory for almost a decade. His last winner was 2017 with Roly Poly.
On January's juvenile form she's a big runner here surely at 9/43.25. The 5/23.50 on her was gone by Thursday lunchtime. Of course, with the three-year-old allowance there's some weight to add to her body of work, and quick ground might be her best too judged on Royal Ascot - as she recorded her best TF run of the season at 111, and she absolutely hosed up on fast ground when winning as a juvenile in the Churchill Stakes at Tipperary.
From the Classic generation, which is sparse for this, she looks far better than Elwateen, who didn't stay the Oaks trip, but didn't totally blow me away in the 1,000 Guineas earlier in the season.
Tactics and who will be ridden where?
Front runners:
Running Lion
Prominently ridden:
Running Lion
Elwateen?
Elmalka
January
Mid-division:
Atsila
Held up:
Cinderella's Dream
Crimson Advocate
Elwateen
Elmalka?
Atsila
January
Lady Ilze
As you can see, the one filly or mare that can naturally lead is Running Lion, but I don't think she's good enough to win this, and with Ballydoyle having no pacemaker, I wonder if January will revert to more pressing tactics.
She's been held up twice in two runs this term and was given the most to do out of the first three in the Coronation at Royal Ascot. The form might look a bit ropey, but the winner and second Zarigana, were both in a better place to attack over to the far rail (in particular Cercene) compared to January.
January was quicker than Cercene in three of the final four furlongs, and it was only the seventh to eight marker where she was a tenth of a second slower. My take on that with the times analysis was that her effort to come from further back with a very stiff finish told.
Trainer form since 11th June
Saeed Bin Suroor 4-15 at 27%
Roger Varian 14-56 at 25%
Charlie Appleby 11-44 at 25%
John and Thady Gosden 12-59 at 20%
Aidan O'Brien 17-82 at 21%
Alan Dudman's 1-2-3 Verdict
In receipt of 9lbs, the chance of fast ground and the potential to switch to front-running tactics - or at least more forward than at Ascot - January on her juvenile form in the Fillies' Mile has to be the answer. I wouldn't be surprised to see her stronger in the market from the current 9/43.25.
Crimson Advocate's stunning Royal Ascot win backed up her effort at Goodwood previously, and with the ground in the heatwave likely to bake, she has form on firm at Gulfstream and will have her conditions.
A fast run 1m are plusses but, whether she can produce the same last-to-first tactics in a small field, we'll see.
Running Lion, if making the running, might nick a place on her best form, but she finished stone last in this 12 months ago so can be passed. Elmalka has been weighed down with her Classic win like a Victorian diving suit, as she probably was lucky, but she's rated 111 and is 4lb shy of the top two at 115 and is more consistent than flashy.
Back January in the 15:35 at Newmarket
1) January
2) Crimson Advocate
3) Elmalka