Saturday Racing Tips: Golan Fortune to get the better of Fiddlerontheroof at Warwick

Regular readers of this column and Betfair Podcast listeners will know that nothing gets my goat more than the unremitting stream of small-field novices' chases, and it is business as usual with just three lining up for the Grade 2 at Warwick at 13:50.

Market outsider to come out on top

However, contrary to the visuals of my anguish, I do actually study them for a bet, and when I looked at this race soon after the 10am declarations on Thursday - and before I saw any updated prices - I said to myself I would tip Golan Fortune at 6/1 or bigger.

So here we have it. A bet in a novices' chase. Wonders never cease.

The first firm up on Thursday morning made him a 17/2 chance (which duly went in about five minutes) but he remains a bet at 8.07/1 or bigger on the exchange. He would remain a bet at 6/1+.

I do have some less-than-amusing recent "previous" with this horse as I managed to get a few quid on him at 50/1 each way, at an enhanced three places, in the Kauto Star at Kempton last time.

For about 99% of the race he looked sure to finish third at worse - the 40/1 chance traded as low as 6.411/2 in running - only for If The Cap Fits to come from out of the clouds to claim the minor placing on the line, prompting me to swear non-stop for the next 10 seconds.

Not even any connecting words, just profanities.

But he clearly ran a stormer there, and I think he deserves a lot more respect than his price suggests.

This winning pointer is already a better chaser than he was a hurdler - he previously impressed when winning on his chasing debut at Ludlow - and I can see this test around here suiting him, albeit he probably wouldn't want bottomless ground (it is currently soft, heavy in places, and the course is due to get a bit more rain, possibly up to 8mm, on Saturday).

Mind you, he finished second to a then-rated 142 Topofthegame in soft ground on the Sandown hurdles track, so he can handle testing conditions, all right.

I'd like Kielan Woods (who has taken over since the horse has been sent chasing) to go from the front but if he decides to take a lead, so be it.

I know Next Destination will take plenty of beating but he does carry a 5lb penalty and I am happy to take him on at the price, for all he appeals more at 8/11 than Fiddlerontheroof does at around 7/4.

I don't see Fiddlerontheroof as a three-miler, especially in the likely ground, and good luck if you have been backing Colin Tizzard's horses this season.

Lottery in the Novices' hurdle

The Grade 2 novices' hurdle at 14:25 is the stuff of betting nightmares to me.

Don't get me wrong, there are any number of very likeable youngsters in there - perhaps chief among them Make Me A Believer and Jay Bee Why - but that is the problem.

No-one is going to be surprised if either of that pair win, but the same applies to at least four others in the race - nine of the 12 runners come into the race as last-time-out winners - and there are just too many unknowns for me, not least if it turns heavy.

And nothing stands out form-wise and on the clock, either. From my point of view, anyway.
I previewed the Classic Chase at 15:00 at length on Tuesday and the two I came down on were Captain Chaos and Le Breuil.

I didn't put either up ante-post as all the fancy prices had gone on the former - he opened up at 16/1 in a place on Monday (which I admitted to snaffling, as well as some 12s), but he was into 6/1 at the time of filing on Tuesday - and Le Breuil was entered for the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick on Thursday, so he was untippable.

You can read that piece here.

Catterick was snowed off, so Le Breuil comes here as something of an afterthought, and Captain Chaos's price shortened further into 5/1 on the exchange in the interim (perhaps unsurprisingly so given the field has narrowed to 13 from 22 at the five-day stage).

Now, a win for either clearly would not shock me - last year's runner-up Captain Chaos has the blinkers back on for the first time this season and is back down to a very attractive mark, and Becher third Le Breuil is also handicapped to win again - but I am worried that they could take each other on up front, and other possible forward-goers are also present in the shape of Storm Control and Achille (the latter has a dangerous profile).

Confronted with a possible burn-up over 3m5f in deep ground, they could all change tactics I suppose and go steady, but this race promises to suit a horse that can sit handy in midfield, hopefully not too far off the pace, and appear on the scene late, and I strongly considered Django Django.

Jonjo O'Neill is still not enticing

You can count on the fingers of one hand how many Jonjo O'Neill horses I have tipped and backed in recent years - Tegerek in this season's Greatwood Hurdle was one, but I literally can't think of another off-hand, simply because I can't work out the stable or their MO - and I nearly made an exception here.

There are plenty of negatives. He hasn't finished within 33 lengths of the winner in three starts this season, and he very disappointing on the face it when backed at big prices at Newbury last time. And he is 2lb out of the handicap here too, with Richard Johnson likely to put up some overweight at 10st, unless he doesn't eat for 24 hours.

He also looked a bit of a pig of a ride in parts at Newbury, not to put too fine a point on it, before consenting to plug on a bit late doors, and I imagine the first words Jonjo O'Neill Jr said when he came in were "He needs headgear".

The first-time cheek pieces are on here and if they sweeten him up sufficiently to enable him to return to the form of his 4 ½-length Newbury defeat of Notachance (one of the market leaders in here) on heavy ground last season then he can go very close.

He will need to travel more kindly to keep in contention around here - the cheek pieces worked for the trainer's Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes Trophy - but his trainer looks to have always viewed him as a dour stayer and he gets the chance to show it on his first venture beyond 3m2f.

In the final analysis though, I wanted more than around 12/1 given the many doubts surrounding him, so no bet.

However, I may stick Captain Chaos (who I think is the most likely winner), Le Breuil, Django Django and Achille in combination tricasts myself.

Come On Teddy is not a bad price at around 9/2 on the exchange in the 15:35, and the same can be said of the in-form Flemcara at 8/1+ and 2017 winner Tobefair at 11/1 or so.

Then I clocked the claims of Kepagge, who is a massive danger to all if he stays this extra 4f, and Ardlethen, and I was very confused.

In fact, I was going to leave the race well alone but the more I looked the more I decided I was backing Ardlethen, running in the same colours of Captain Chaos (so I won't be sad if the Newboulds, who had a winner here on New Year's Eve in 2019, have a double on the card), at around 14/1 to small stakes on the exchange.

He fell at the second over fences at Ascot last time, so Dan Skelton has obviously decided to ditch chasing for the time being - he has mixed it in some very good company in that sphere though, and ran well enough when sixth in the Ladbrokes Trophy in November - and he returns to hurdles on a very fair mark off 137.

Two hurdle starts ago (his last run over the smaller obstacles came in the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree) he gave The Cashel Man 5lb and a 7-length beating - that was back in February 2019, admittedly - and the runner-up went on to attain a peak mark of 147.

This could well be a confidence-booster and maybe they will be happy with a qualifying run, but I think Ardlethen is worth a speculative win-only bet at 14.013/1 off a mark which definitely underestimates his ability. It is only a modest wager, though.

One last thing. There isn't a lot of pace in here and one of his better efforts came when he made the running when second in the Towton, so maybe connections should consider a more aggressive ride than of late.

Conditions a huge factor over at Market Rasen

It promises to be very heavy going at Market Rasen if they get even more rain throughout Saturday, so favourite Edwardstone and 7/2 chance Oscars Leader (who could get an easy lead) are the two to focus on in the 2m125yd handicap hurdle at 14:05.

I would marginally favour Oscars Leader at the prices, but there is little juice in the five-runner market.

The same goes for Eileendover v Grangee in the mares' bumper at 15:15, a race which has disappointingly cut up to just seven runners.

This is probably not a match at all, in truth, as the likes of Merry Mistress was very impressive in heavy ground at Hereford, but with ¼ 1,2 place terms means this is certainly no each way betting contest.

Let us hope all eight stand their ground in the 2m7f16yd hurdle at 14:40, as I think the two market leaders are worth taking on in this ground and each-way players will be looking to get involved.

The problem was that I couldn't find a solid, attractive alternative, win-only or each-way, against them, so I may just lay the pair of them personally. I'd be willing to stretch to around 9/4 (Lil Rockerfeller) and 2/1 (On The Blind Side) to get both in the book.

I have got a lot of grief on the Podcast for my Keeper Hill love this season, but I can see him going well on his return to hurdles. However, price is everything and he and the rest of the field didn't scream out as bets to me, given their various doubts, and that prospect of a place-changing, non-runner.

Good luck. It really is a low-key, small-stakes Saturday.