Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin gets two more on side in the Caspian Caviar

I am more than happy with Monday's 20/1 each-way ante-post play on Romain de Senam for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at 13:50, even though he now trades at a slightly bigger win-only price on the Exchange.

It is easy to see why the layers are fielding against him now after he traded at a low of 12.011/1 on the ante-post line, as the race has held up better than seemed likely at one-stage midweek - the connections of the market principals Master Tommytucker and Al Dancer declined the option of going down the Peterborough Chase route on Friday - and you can pick holes in his claims.

Encouraging signs for ante-post tip

I am surprised that they have not declared him to run in a hood, as that headgear has been on for all his best efforts for previous trainer Paul Nicholls, but the stick you can beat him with most I guess is his Cheltenham record.

His hurdles form is fine - indeed he was beaten only a head in the Fred Winter here back in 2016 - but his form over fences is patchy, and he never went a yard when pulled up in this race two years ago.

However, it is certainly not all doom and gloom on that front as she finished a good fifth in this contest off a 7lb higher mark on soft ground in 2017, and the handicapper has given him a big shot here.

I suggested this looked like a long-term plan in Monday's piece and that has been confirmed to me as accurate since. Shades of "Kuenssberg sources" there, so apologies.

Sure, that is no guarantee of success, and most in here would have had at least one eye on this race as well, but Dan Skelton is not a bad man to have on your side when lining one up - for example, none of his three recent County Hurdle winners had run in the calendar year of their successes - and the horse could not have had a better prep than his fourth over 2m at Aintree last time.

We know that trip is well shy of his best so the way he travelled so sweetly through that race and finished so close, without the jockey really going for it, is highly encouraging.

And that came on ground that Timeform called soft - they also said the same of his Newton Abbot win last year - so perhaps he doesn't need it nearer to good to shine.

His jumping has to be another concern as he can hit one, but maybe the Skeltons thought he fenced better without his usual hood last time, so that could explain that omission.

His usual tongue-tie is back on though, and hopefully the trainer, who only got this horse from Nicholls in the summer, will be doing his best George Peppard impersonation after the race.

For non-A-Team fans, his character - Hannibal Smith, and yes I did have to look it up - used to say: "I love what it when a plan comes together."

I won't tip him again but if you want an investment on the race, he is very backable at 22.021/1 or bigger.

Cepage loves Cheltehnam

The question is whether I want another horse on my side in what is a hugely competitive 17-runner handicap.

I think Cepage is probably my idea of the safest each-way bet in the race, albeit at a single-figure price, as he loves it around here and he has finished second and fourth in the last two runnings of this race.

And he clearly didn't get home when tried over 3m1f at the Festival in March, a race in which he traded at 2.546/4 in the run, when we last saw him.

Ask me the horse most likely to place and I would say Cepage all day long, and as a result I couldn't put you off backing him at 13/2 each-way, six places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

In fact, I suggest you do. He also a brilliant record when fresh.

Okay, he is on a career-high mark here of 155 and is vulnerable to an improver, but he is only 1lb higher than when beating Spiritofthegames here in January (the runner-up was second to Coole Cody in the Paddy Power this season) two starts ago and he simply looks as solid as you get.

I can fully see the case for Windsor Avenue and Champagne Mystery (whose owner Trevor Hemmings can do no wrong at the moment) at four times the price, but I must admit the closest I came to putting up another horse, Drumconnor Lad at 85.084/1 and bigger on the Exchange. Anything bigger than 60.059/1 is worth a small dart.

In fact, I could not live with myself if he won and I wasn't with him at a huge price.

I did half a cojone when going strong on him each-way over 2m at Ascot last time and he never got into the race there at any stage there - he was parked out the back, and it was a very lack-lustre effort - and he missed a subsequent engagement at Leicester at the end of last month, too.

So he has plenty to prove here, hence his price.

But I was really impressed with him when winning at Ayr in a good time in October and he looks fairly handicapped off a 5lb higher mark - and he showed he stayed this trip well enough when a close second at Kempton back in March - so I am giving him another chance, with blinkers replacing cheek-pieces, presumably to buck his ideas up after the Ascot run.

To be honest, the booking of 5lb claimer Conor Brassil is not a massive positive in my book, not least because he hasn't been riding much of late and I know very little of him, but no way I am going to let a horse I rate go off at this kind of price unbacked and untipped.

It may be folly to have three bets in such a wide-open handicap, but it is done, move on.

Having written the thick-end of 1,000 words on the Caspian Caviar, I am only going to focus in-depth on races where I can see a bet from here on in, so at least you won't get any moans about small-field novices' chases for once.

It is not often you see all the five-day entries standing their ground at the overnight stage, but they have in a cracking 10-runner International Hurdle at 15:00 and the only downside is that the Grade 2 is impossible to call as a result. As far as I am concerned, anyway.

A place-lay of Goshen at 1.910/11 or shorter could be the way to go, I suppose, as he has blow-out potential.

Anyone who saw Ask A Honey Bee finish second over 2m6f on good ground at Newcastle a fortnight ago will be in little doubt that an extra 2f with a bit more dig on a stiffer track will suit him in the 14:25.

But he isn't any stand-out price at around 5/1 on the exchange in another very competitive and open race - and the spectre of a non-runner in a dead-eight should also worry would-be each-way backers - for all he would probably appeal most of the field.

Take a chance on The Bay Birch

I am going to take a chance with The Bay Birch at 21.020/1 or bigger in the last at 15:35.

She ran a strange race over fences at Newbury last time, as at one point I thought she was coming with a promising run from the rear, only to immediately flatten out, and then to run on again. Only moderate late gains, admittedly.

She has been running pretty well over fences this season though, while her mark has come tumbling down.

She had a chase rating of 152 after winning at Chepstow in October 2019 but is down to a mark of 130 now, and her hurdling level is some 5lb lower at 125, too.

That clearly makes her of interest, and she decent track form, too.

It is obviously a punt but I quite like the angle of cheek-pieces being put on her for only the second time - the first was when she finished a good eighth over an inadequate 2m off 140 in the Grand Annual here in March, where she stayed on really well from the last after looking likely to tail off two out (the in-running comment is plain wrong) - and Sam Twiston-Davies getting the leg up is another plus (although probably not for his Friday night as he is riding at 10st).

I'll take my chances at 20/1+.

Buying the farm at Doncaster?

We also have three ITV races at Doncaster but clearly five-runner novices' chase and novices' hurdles don't really cut it for me as betting mediums - the chase is very likely to be reduced to four as The Mighty Don ran at Cheltenham on Friday, and I would be against Monmiral at 4/5 or less - and the only race of real interest is the 3m handicap chase at 15:15.

Course and distance winner Boldmere is the right favourite in here, as he would have won the Grade 2 Towton at Wetherby last February and he is very well handicapped off 142 on that run - he is a fair bet at 7/2 or bigger - but I am going to take leave of my senses and back Singlefarmpayment at 9.08/1 or bigger.

I will put in to lay back my stake at 2/1 or a touch bigger myself though, so you may want to follow suit (and I do know we will not be the only ones, hence 2s and not around evens).

We all are aware what you get with this horse, as he has been a consistent shirker and hasn't won since 2016 - and he has been beaten seven times after trading at odds-on! - but boy is he on a winnable mark on 137 now.

Yes, I know. I hear you.

The most recent of those odds-on failures came in the soft at Cheltenham last December - just the 1.444/9 on that occasion - but I am lured in on the back of his first run for Henry Oliver at Sandown last month.

It appears his saddle slipped there at the Railway fences - though his critics may say that probably helped him - so he shaped extremely well in the circumstances, and this race could set up well for him (or at least my trade) with Jersey Bean and Manofthemountain likely to go forward, as may Rocky's Treasure and Sizing Codelco.

He should be able to travel into the race in his customary fashion then, and Oliver has re-applied the hood (missing at Sandown) the horse has worn for all his best runs, so the stage is set.

It could be an act we have seen many times before but maybe a change of scenery to Oliver could provide a different ending, and the trainer has banged in a couple of winners (a third of his seasonal tally) at big prices this week.

Ridicule away. I am backing him regardless.