Clermont to get his rewards
The first race to look at is Ascot's Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f at 13:45 where one runner stands out as a leading fancy. That horse is the Jonjo O'Neill trained, Garry Clermont at 4.77/2 who fits plenty of the trends for this contest.
A horse aged six or seven has won this race for the past five years. A rating in the mid-140s has proven optimal with a preference for horses who won last time out. Unfortunately, there isn't a single last time out winner in this race which takes away that angle. However, if a horse has had two or three runs already this season then that holds more significance than the time since their latest run.
It's tricky to know exactly what racing style is most favoured in this race but ideally, it pays to be ridden prominently if judged on recent renewals.
The horse who ticks the most boxes therefore, is Garry Clermont to hopefully, build on his third in the Grade 3 Betfair Exchange Trophy at this track. That latest start was a very fair effort where Garry Clermont was continuing to stay on well in the finish over the 1m7f152y trip.
He was ridden in midfield which certainly aided his chances behind the strong pace that was set in that Ascot contest. However, the first and second horses were ridden wider throughout whereas Garry Clermont, for all he was kept off the inside rail was certainly closer to the inner than Tritonic and Onemorefortheroad.
He travelled through the race beautifully, clearly coping with the good to soft ground but the return to these soft conditions will certainly suit him further.This horse can count himself unlucky for his penultimate start where he finished second again over Ascot's 1m7f152y trip where he went down by just ¾ length. However, that doesn't tell the full story of the race. He again was ridden in mid-division where he powered through the contest, catching the eye throughout. Such was the ease in which he travelled into the race that if you had backed him, you were already on your way to the bookies to collect.
He sauntered into the lead and was asked to extend between the final two flights.
The winning and losing of the race came down to the final hurdle where there was no stride at all for Garry Clermont. The horse showed real intelligence though to create a stride for himself by running his hurdle down to his left but due to that manoeuvre, he lost momentum.
It was then left to the rallying Captain Morgs, who got a flying leap at the last, to land full of running and take the prize. The margin Garry Clermont lost at the final hurdle equated to the lengths gained by Captain Morgs's jump. Garry Clermont continued to battle back all the way to the line so despite showing plenty of pace, he also displayed his stamina over that trip.
I think this step back up to 2m3f will suit him and he can atone for his latest couple of place efforts back at a track he clearly runs well at and off just a 1lb higher mark.
Class angle to come to the fore in Handicap Chase
It's the turn of the chasers in our next race which is a Handicap Chase over 2m5f at 14:55.
This race is a wonderfully trappy contest where the top three in the market all look to have huge chances. Those three are Palmers Hill, Fanion D'Estruval and Killer Clown. It took me a long time to sort through this trio with each having a near perfect profile for this particular race.
I eventually came down on the side of Fanion D'Estruval at 6.611/2 to hopefully, give the weight away to his rivals in another handicap.
Venetia Williams's runner has been somewhat of an enigma of a horse from the moment he made his British debut. He looked like something special on that stable bow in November 2019 where he routed a good field of novice chasers by six lengths with an effortless jumping display.
The world looked his oyster however, he soon had a shock to his system when sighted at a frenetically run Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton on his next start. His jumping went awry which has been a theme of his career since.
There were plenty of glimmers of his ability the subsequent season where he was sighted at lofty targets in Grade 1 and Grade 2 company. He signed off last campaign with a fifth in the Ryanair Chase where he finished last of those who completed- at least he wasn't totally put to the sword by Allaho like so many others were. The only reason he was likely able to complete that race was because he was ridden in rear and therefore, kept out of the fire on the front end.
He ran a bizarre race on his reappearance this season in the Grade 2 Old Roan Limited Handicap Chase at Aintree. Different tactics were deployed as he was sent forwards yet that plan very quickly was forced to be abandoned after a slow jump at the first.
He soon dropped away and became detached, such were the poor jumps he was throwing in. Yet Charlie Deutsch, who knows this horse like the back of his hand, stuck with him. Somehow, when it looked as though Fanion D'Estruval was sure to have been pulled up earlier in the race, he blazed into the picture.
Allmankind admittedly, was tiring in front whereas Itchy Feet had been ridden with restraint which saw him bag second. Midnight Shadow in third would have finished closer to the winner had he not made an error two out which all paid to the quite astounding late flurry from Fanion D'Estruval.
The form of the Old Roan worked out very well and Fanion did his own bit of form boosting by winning impressively at Newbury when returned to a non-graded handicap. He jumped well and asserted over the 2m3f187y trip showing him to be a class above his rivals.
The subsequent 8lb rise of course, begs an entirely different question of him in this race against better horses than last time out who come here in top form.
However, this race has often gone to a horse running off a mark in the 150s- Dashel Drasher won last year off a mark of and Cyrname won in 2019 off 150.Marks in the 150s are still winnable ones and it looks significant that Lucy Turner has been booked to ride to take 7lb off Fanion's back.
Hopefully, that levels the playing field once more and Fanion D'Estruval can continue to find his level in another handicap.
Redemption day for one of two runners
The final race I'm looking at on Saturday is the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase over 3m1f125y at Haydock at 14:35. There are two runners I like in this ultra-competitive test of stamina.
I think the current favourite at the time of writing, Royale Pagaille is worth taking on for all his class and win in this race last year speak for themselves. He is however, running off a 7lb higher mark than last year and as admirable as it is that Venetia Williams is bold enough to run her top-notch horses in handicaps, I fear the weight may prove telling.
Therefore, the first runner I'm siding with is Remastered at 5.24/1. Yes, I can hear you saying it, 'not again Kate surely', but for the third time in a row I'm happy to side with David Pipe's runner.
It was very well documented how unlucky he was to fall when going well in the Ladbrokes Trophy. I can only imagine how sick connections of Remastered must have been as I felt fairly queasy myself, and that was just from tipping him!
It was brilliant to see him come out of that horror fall unscathed and he posted a really likeable and bold jumping display on his next outing in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase over this course and distance.
I was nervous as he bounded down to the first fence that the memories of Newbury may suddenly hit but there was no sign of that at all. One positive about a horse such as Remastered is that he's ever so slightly unhinged. He wears a red hood down to the start and always adopts his frontrunning style as that's essentially, his only way of going.
That therefore means, that a horse such as Remastered tends to have good bouncebackability. They're almost numb to the demands of being a staying chaser. I'm hoping that will again become apparent in this race following his tough slog to finish behind Enqarde last time out.
He gave the winner 18lb in that race which was a hugely brave effort from Remastered. Coming into the Peter Marsh on the back of a good run in one of the big staying chases in December is a positive and hopefully, he will finally get his rewards.
The second consideration who I simply cannot leave without a bet is Empire Steel at 6.411/2. Now regular readers of this column will be noticing a theme here. Yes, Empire Steel was another of my former tips in this column who also, fell when looking the most likely winner. Sometimes I do question if it's me who is in fact a curse- don't even mention the name Shan Blue...
I tipped Empire Steel to win the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day. He was a fair price considering the doubts about many of his rivals and looked a solid proposition for the contest.
All appeared to be going well as he took a lead behind the pace setters and was jumping well in a rhythm. That was until he met the fourth last fence on a long stride. Such was the ease at which he travelled into the contest that he opted for the longer stride and cleared the fence with plenty of scope.
He simply jumped the fence too well and knuckled on landing in a very unfortunate departure. The frustration was that he clearly had plenty left in the tank to even be coming up off that long stride. Yet he paid for it in a very tame manner.
Of course, it's never ideal to be siding with a horse who fell on their latest outing- not that I listened to that with Remastered last time out. But off a 1lb lower mark here, Empire Steel must be included as a selection in this race. I'd be kicking myself if he won unbacked after all.
Recommended bets
Back Garry Clermont 13:45 Ascot @ 4.77/2
Back Fanion D'Estruval 14:55 Ascot @ 6.611/2
Back Remastered 14:35 Haydock @ 5.24/1
Back Empire Steel 14:35 Haydock @ 6.411/2
Kate's P/L
Staked: 73pts
Returns: 109.8pts
Overall: +36.8pts