Whatmore to defy the absence
It's yet another Cheltenham Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 2m4f127y at 13:55. I love these races throughout the calendar, at each Cheltenham meeting as every contest is as competitive as the next. We have a lot of the same protagonists contesting these graded handicap chases, which makes each one feel like a meeting of old friends.
We have 11 declared runners for this particular race which looks a typically open affair. I wanted to be against the current market leader, Farinet as he has plenty to prove. Yes, he comes into this race in solid form however, he needs to show that form away from Sandown and on a decent surface.
It was impossibly tricky to find a horse that fitted all the trends needed for this contest therefore, I've taken a different approach when assessing the race.
One horse who doesn't fit the profile seemingly needed for this race is Whatmore. Now recent renewals will tell us that in order to win this race you need a horse aged six or eight, rated in either the mid-150s as a class act or as an improver still rated in the mid-130s. A minimum of two starts that season is ideal and the horse should have either won last time out or at least, ran well in a Listed race or in a Cheltenham Grade 3 Handicap. Prominent racers also have a huge advantage in this particular contest and a break of two to six weeks since a horse's last run is another plus.
One horse who fits none of these trends is Whatmore however, I'm finding it very difficult to get away from Henry Daly's charge at his current price of 8.07/1 with four places available on the Sportsbook as well.
We haven't seen this 10-year-old since November 2020 where he finished second in the Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase at Newcastle. He ran a solid race in defeat behind Yorkhill on that occasion but clearly has had an issue since.
He isn't a big, barrel of a horse so I'm hoping that he shouldn't need this reappearance run to achieve peak fitness. He is a horse who has a very good record when fresh after winning or placing on his last four seasonal debuts.
We know this horse can be readied after a break therefore and hopefully, he's now over whatever ailment kept him off the track for so long.
Henry Daly is also the man to have onside when looking to chance a horse on the back of a lengthy break where you would be in profit if backing all his chasers on the back of a yearlong absence (credit Andrew Mount).
There are very few horses in this race who look feasibly handicapped with conditions to suit. The only horse who may have plenty of mileage in his mark is Whatmore who has been given 2lb back during his absence and runs here off a mark of 140. He posted an RPR of 149 last time out so provided he is fit and sharp for this return, he looks feasibly treated.
I hope Whatmore isn't ridden too far off the pace with Torn And Frayed and Coole Cody likely to blast off in front. The trends tell you that prominent racers are advantaged so ideally, Whatmore can be ridden prominently and get a tow into the race.
Midnight Shadow can prove his class yet again
It's another very open handicap chase for my next race to cover, this time from Doncaster in the form of the Listed Sky Bet Handicap Chase over 2m7f214y at 15:20.
This is yet another very open, hugely competitive contest where chances can be given all round. I've run through the trends once more which landed me on some interesting angles into the race.
The first point to note is that this race lends itself well to older horses. The last three renewals have gone to two 10-year-olds and a 12-year-old last year. The sweet spot in terms of an official rating for this race is 145 or 146. Two starts already that season is a minimum with at least one month since that latest outing.
A horse doesn't have to have won last time out but it's significant if that horse ran well enough in either a good staying handicap chase or over this course and distance. There doesn't seem to be a bias in terms of the running style but if really homing in, then prominent racers have a better record.
The three horses who initially stood out on that basis were Janika, Fusil Raffles and Midnight Shadow. I'm concerned about the Janika we have nowadays where he simply doesn't look the force of old. His last win came in the 2019 Haldon Gold Cup which earnt him a career high mark of 166. However, it's been a definite decline of form since those glory days and for all he's well handicapped, I couldn't trust him to back him.
At the head of the market is Fusil Raffles who was another who ticked plenty of boxes however, he is only a seven-year-old which does concern me in this race. I'm also concerned about his stamina for the three-mile test here. Yes, he won the Charlie Hall on his penultimate start but as we all know, that was hugely fortuitous. He was keen in that run and basically looked to win despite the petrol gauge ticking quite a way out.
Therefore, the horse who I want to be siding with again is Midnight Shadow. I say again as I have tipped this horse up on his latest couple of starts and he didn't let me down on either occasion. He won the Paddy Power Gold Cup like a smart horse. That win built on his third in the Old Roan at Aintree where he probably should have finished second but for a mistake at the second last.
He then ran another corker back at Cheltenham last time out to finish third in another Grade 3 Handicap Chase. He was giving plenty of weight away in that race on the back of a 7lb rise for his previous victory.
He has another 1lb rise to contend with here but he's just had a solid season. He has the ideal conditioning for this race with three runs.
The slight concern I have about his chances in this race is the hefty mark he's running off on 155. However, he is the standout class angle in this race for me and looks as though he can defy the weight.
Of course, the stamina question is another that is going to have to be answered by Midnight Shadow but if he's going to see out the three-mile trip anywhere, it'll be Doncaster on good ground. He looks a solid bet at 10.09/1 with six places available instead of four on the Sportsbook.
Hillcrest to tower over his rivals once more
I'm actually moving away from a handicap for once now with my final race to dissect and that is the Grade 2 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle over 2m4f at 15:40.
I thought it was very significant that Hillcrest had been declared for this race and not the River Don Novices' Hurdle over three miles at Doncaster. But we know what a gruelling race that is so it's understandable that Henry Daly may not have wanted Hillcrest to endure that test. He's also therefore, staying over 2m4f and is back at Cheltenham so he should have all variables in his favour.
We know this seven-year-old is a staying chaser in the making, you simply have to look at him to know that. He's a monster of a horse in terms of height and width which naturally made plenty of people sceptical about him as a novice hurdler over an intermediate trip.
However, he wins despite this clearly not being his ultimate game. He has only been beaten once in his career and that was on debut where he was defeated by a nose in a Doncaster bumper. Since grabbing plenty of people's attention there, he's remained unbeaten. Winning his second bumper start and is now three from three over hurdles.
He faced his biggest challenge last time out when he was put into a highly competitive Listed Novices' Hurdle over this course and distance. He towered over his rivals when walking around at the start and the concern was whether he'd have the speed and agility to cope.
He was sent forward by Richard Patrick where he lobbed along in front, turning over one stride for his rival's two. He in an intelligent horse as he pricks his ears when approaching a hurdle and assesses his own stride.
However, with his big rangy stride cadence, he finds it difficult to get out of his own way when in short. As the race quickened, his jumping got better as he had more speed to sight the longer strides which showed off his scope.
He was merely dossing when joined by I Am Maximus who came with a strong looking challenge. Hillcrest's demeanour swiftly changed once thrown into the battle and it took him a few strides to respond. He kicked into top gear eventually and as soon as he did, the race was over and he stayed on powerfully up the hill. He even had the energy to spook at a parked-up gator belonging to the ground staff on the run to the line.
He clearly had plenty in reserve on that latest outing and there should be a lot more to come from him. He looks a solid win only bet at 2.526/4