Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey is chancing three horses to bounce back

Dolos to uphold his fine course and distance record

It was incredibly difficult to narrow down just a few races to cover this Saturday with quality and competitive action coming at us left, right and centre. The first race I was intrigued by however, is one of our earlier contests in the form of Sandown's Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 1m7f119y at 13:15.

This really is a tight little contest with a whole host of horses who can stake significant claims but there is one horse I think has been sighted specifically at this race.

That horse is Dolos who won this race in 2020 and 2019 off much higher marks than the nine-year-old is running off now.

There is of course, the large shadow of the Paul Nicholls' yard form at present that lingers over Dolos' chances. We know that Nicholls gives his horses their flu jabs in January and it can often take a while for the form of the yard to pick up again.

I'm hoping that won't play as significant a role with Dolos as it looks like a return to this race has been the plan for the Kapgarde gelding.

Dolos first won this race in 2019 as a six-year-old with an official rating of 149 where he was ridden prominently. He came into the race on the back of three starts that season and had finished third of five in a Graduation Chase at Ascot on his previous outing. He was given a six-week break before running out a comfortable winner of this contest.

He returned to the race the following season as a seven-year-old when winning once more, this time off a mark of 157. Again, he raced prominently and came into the contest on the back of two outings that campaign. His last start before taking in the race was when finishing seventh of eight in the Tingle Creek over the same course and distance. He was given a two-month break and brought back for this handicap where he held subsequent Grade 1 winner, First Flow by half a length.

However, in those three outings he's managed to drop 14lb which is a trend we've seen more and more from the British handicapper this season.

He was never a factor last time out after being ridden in rear and I'm hoping he'll be ridden more prominently here.

The pace is likely to come from Moonlighter and Bun Doran which will hopefully, give Dolos a nice tow into the contest as he raced prominently in both victories in this race.

At an each-way price of 8.07/1, Dolos is feasibly handicapped in a race he has a cracking record in.

Anna has the perfect profile

We head north now to Musselburgh for the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle which is a 0-145 handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f124y at 14:40 which looks a wide-open affair.

This isn't a vintage renewal with the top weight running off a mark of 139 so that has to be taken into consideration when contextualising this contest.

Recent renewals of the Scottish County Hurdle show that a rating in the mid-130s to the mid-140s is optimal which rules out a fair few of these runners straight away. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth.

Six-year-olds have won 11 of the 17 renewals which is clearly, a significant trend. There are only three six-year-olds in this year's race with those being Socialist Agenda, Glory And Honour and Anna Bunina.

There is no significant running style that is favoured however, it has proven difficult to make all in this race- contrary to Musselburgh's usual bias. If a horse has had at least two starts that campaign, that is another positive and ideally, the horse reached the frame last time out.

This race tends not to go to last time out winners and has often been won by horses who have contested a graded race prior but may not have run well in it.

Therefore, I am tentatively omitting Highly Prized as a bet as we haven't seen him since May 2021. He is certainly running off the correct handicap mark to be a major factor in this race but I worry about his sharpness.

Glory And Honour was even more difficult to omit as a bet as his profile looks almost perfect for this race and I thought he posted a solid performance in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle last time out. However, his mark even before the 3lb drop he received for his latest start would temper enthusiasm. He hasn't even posted an RPR in his career yet that would suggest he's up to winning this race judged on recent renewals. That must be a concern so I'm leaving him to one side on this occasion.

Therefore, the runner I've come down on the side of is Anna Bunina as she fits almost all trends. She is a six-year-old, rated 133, who has two starts to her name this season and she contested a graded race last time out.

The concern would be that her latest outing was a disappointing effort when fourth of five in the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle when she was well touted. She was also given enough of a chance on her seasonal reappearance when running over this course and distance behind Tommy's Oscar.

She only finished ½ length behind the reopposing Fiveandtwenty on that penultimate start with Fiveandtwenty half of Anna Bunina's price here. Of course, both mares were well beaten behind the subsequent Grade 2 winning Tommy's Oscar in that handicap hurdle. Anna Bunina simply looked as if she needed the run on the back of a lengthy break and it was expected she could step forward for the outing.

She dropped away tamely at Doncaster last time out but I think it's significant that she's being turned out again just a week later. Clearly, there wasn't anything fundamentally wrong with her and John McConnell is happy to let her take her chance across the Irish Sea again.

She's well treated in the context of this race off her mark of 133 and she will certainly enjoy the sound surface. At an each-way price of 13.012/1 she has to be worth giving another chance to.

Gold Cup hero is overpriced

I couldn't resist a crack at the Irish Gold Cup on Saturday at 15:15 as it looks a hugely open race with a market that certainly isn't stagnant.

Frodon and Kemboy are vying for favouritism at the time of writing and both have evident claims. Kemboy comes alive at Leopardstown as shown when winning this race in good style last season and when a perhaps, unlucky second in the Savills Chase prior.

He again, ran a solid race when a closeup third behind Galvin and A Plus Tard in this season's Savills Chase at Christmas despite jumping to his right. He looks solid to give his running once more.

Kemboy is going to have plenty of pace pressure though from Frodon which will either help Kemboy by giving him company or the front two could cut each other's throats. We saw in the King George that Frodon is happy to go whatever pace to keep his head in front, even if that ultimately ruins his own chances as it did at Kempton.

I'm hoping Kemboy puts it up to Frodon and doesn't give him the uncontested lead he needs to see him at his best. Of course, there is further potential pace pressure from Conflated who likes to go forward. Then there's the added wild card of first-time cheekpieces on Delta Work who may also be vying for a prominent racing position.

All these factors temper enthusiasm for both Kemboy and Frodon. I'm therefore, taking the pair of them on at the head of the market. Instead, I'm giving another chance to the reigning Gold Cup hero Minella Indo.

Henry De Bromhead's star simply looks overpriced in this race at 5.14/1 on the back of one disappointing run.

It was well documented the trials and tribulations he had last season where his jumping went to pot. However, he resoundingly stuck it to his doubters when winning the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in impressive style.

It was reported that he was carrying significant condition on his reappearance start this season at Down Royal however, he still shaped well and showed plenty of promise for future targets.

Those future targets included the King George where he was well fancied however, the race didn't pan out at all as expected for Minella Indo supporters.

It was a clear plan by connections to not let Frodon get an uncontested lead in the King George once again. It was unfortunate though that only Minella Indo was nominated as the sacrificial lamb to disrupt the reining champ.

Of course, many will point out that his two career starts at Leopardstown haven't exactly gone smoothly either. However, I can forgive both. He fell in the Savills Chase last season before jumping with no confidence on his next start in the Irish Gold Cup. He showed the memories of his tumble and was never a factor.

His jumping was clearly worked on significantly at home and he has looked far more confident ever since. I hope he can bounce back here and prove his class once again.