Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says back Skeltons to score at Doncaster

Before I crack on with the analysis, just a quick line on the pace maps for all ITV races you will find at the end of this column.

I flagged up the possibility of doing these on Twitter last week and there seemed to be a degree of interest, so here we go.

It is certainly not an exact science, as most horses have varying run-styles, for a number of reasons (field sizes being the most obvious), but these are my best guesses as to how they will be ridden on Saturday.

If they help in any way, then great, if not, no problem. There could be some betting angles - for example, will they go from the front on Lisnagar Oscar in the Cleeve Hurdle? - but it is probably not a stellar weekend for them providing many clues.

I do them as a matter of course before I get stuck into the races, so I thought I may as well provide them here, so use or ignore as you so wish.

A little bit of Magic

I am going to start ITV's seven races in chronological order and at Cheltenham, and hopefully some of you will have blagged some decent prices about Magic Saint in the 2m4f+ handicap chase at 13:55.

I couldn't tip him on Tuesday as the Betfair Sportsbook team were fully alive to his chances in a race very likely cut up (10 of the 18 at the five-day were doubly declared) and made him "only" 7/1 when he was bigger everywhere else, and top at 10s.

Damn and blast those alert odds-compilers, as when the market was reformed after Thursday's 10am declarations, he was the 7/2 favourite across the board.

Actually, he has already drifted from 7/2 and is actually now out to 9/2 fixed-odds and edging 6s on the exchange.

Obviously, a fair bit of the initial price contraction is down to there being seven withdrawals at the overnight stage, and they included market leaders Falco Blitz, Fusil Raffles and Simply The Betts, to name just three (the former, as low as 4s on Tuesday, is a surprise no-show).

What I said about him on Tuesday stands, and I will quickly re-iterate here: he shaped far better than his 12-length fourth would suggest at this track last time, when he was sent off at three-figure price at Betfair SP, and he was dropped another 2lb for it.

He is now 5lb lower than when beating Fanion D'Estruval over 2m here in November 2020 - he is also now 12lb shy of his peak rating - and the better ground, on a course he goes well at, is very much in his favour, too.

But there are negatives, not least that all his best form has come at 2m and he has looked a weak finisher on occasions over this trip, for all he stays it and the good ground here will help no end as regards the stamina issue.

The fact of the matter is that he is 0 from 10 on his attempts at 2m3f and beyond, and someone made a good point on Twitter on Thursday. Could they be looking to drop him another 2lb or so, with an eye on the Grand Annual again (he went off 9/2 favourite for that race in 2019)?

I will also certainly back him win-only on the exchange - just before filing he has drifted out to 7/1 - but I will look elsewhere for the purposes of the here and now and this column.

A Quest-ion of price

Spiritofthegames, 33/1 on Tuesday, is another dangerously well handicapped horse off 137 now - he was beaten ½ length off a 12lb higher mark in this race in 2020 - but he has been running like a drain of late (including over hurdles last time) and his price has ebbed away, too, now in to 11/1.

However, it really wouldn't be a massive surprise if he went close here, or indeed the recently nibbled-at Jacamar, up just 3lb for his strong Kempton win last win,, but the more I looked at the race the more I thought Galahad Quest was the way to play this now.

With the Sportsbook going four places, I obviously thought each-way was the way to go.

Unfortunately, so did others too, as no sooner did the 6/1 about him go up on Thursday, then it was immediately taken - and then I sat with head in hands when the 5s went in the evening - and we are now looking at 4/1 there after he was trimmed again on Friday morning.

He is currently 7.413/2 on the exchange, so I have to suggest you back him at 6s or bigger there, with 11/2 and bigger acceptable, rather than my preferred each way route.

Then that win-only price came into 5.95/1 too at 10.30am. so I decided to pull the bet. If he drifts, then I will back him and here is why.

He was one of the eyecatchers of the season when a 2-length third to Good Boy Bobby on his return at Wetherby in October and I don't mean that in a "not off" way, even though he wasn't given a hard time after travelling supremely well (1.715/7).

That form worked out very well and he also shaped far better than the bare form when fifth in the Paddy Power here next time, as he never really got competitive from well off the pace, and both of those runs - either of which give him a winning chance here - came off a 3lb higher mark than this.

The wheels have come off a bit since, as he fell at Aintree and ran a tame race here last time, but maybe four quick runs caught up with him that day and a four-week break will have hopefully freshened him up.

He may ideally want softer ground than he will encounter here - actually it wouldn't be a big surprise if good going saw a few non-runners on the card after connections have walked the course on Saturday, as the course are not watering - but a chase mark of 132 definitely underestimates the raw talent of this Grade 2 hurdles' course winner, and it was good to soft at Wetherby.

Hopefully, he hits 6/1 or so again pre-race.

The other three contests on ITV have attracted fields of just five, five and six and I don't have any objections to the prices, so I am not betting in those.

After the way he performed at Kempton, I couldn't have Chantry House at around even money on the exchange for the Cotswold Chase at 14:30 - he was one of the gambles of the season when sent off at just 3/1 for the King George - but Aye Right and Simply The Betts are hardly saying "come and get me" either at their prices.

Aye Right would interest me most, as he just looks very solid and is fair at 4s, but it's an empty comment without a bet attached, and I am not getting involved. Let's move on.

Oscar is probably a big price

Then Stayers' Hurdle favourite Klassical Dream got summarily chinned in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park on Thursday but I don't think Champ will be downed at odds of 1/2 in the Cleeve Hurdle at 15:05 even if this promises to be a very messy affair with no guaranteed pace.

Paisley Park did make the running when disappointing at Newbury, but I can't see that happening again, so I reckon Lisnagar Oscar could be the most likely candidate to lead them, if he only does so sparingly.

And 25/1 is probably on the big side about this former Stayers' Hurdle winner, for all he is woefully out of form.

His best effort in the past two campaigns came after an aggressive ride at Haydock last year but, if he declines the pace invitation, then this could be very cat-and-mouse tactically.

The six-runner Ballymore trial at 15:40 looks a great little contest featuring some very promising types but, once again, it is not a betting race for me, though North Lodge's Aintree win has worked out well and he would have been very tempting at 13/2 had his trainer Alan King been in better form.

On that note, keep an eye out as for how King's runners perform through Friday. He has a couple of fancied horses, it seems.

Anna bet looking good at Doncaster

The only real punting race over at Doncaster is the Skybet Chase but luckily we got in early with our bet in the Grade 2 mares' hurdle at 14:10 as I am very happy with Tuesday's 7/1 ante-post position on Anna Bunina, now only five go to post.

I am very surprised to see Western Victory among the quintet as she must have had a very hard race over 3m at Ascot last weekend, as she went like a bat out of hell early doors, only to capitulate when headed 2 out and be eventually beaten 35 lengths.

Hardly easing in gently for new trainer Emma Lavelle there, I'd have thought, but presumably she has come out of it bouncing.

Last year's winner Miranda is the right favourite form-wise but she has a 6lb penalty and she gave her backers a fright when nearly refusing to race prior to winning at Ludlow last time. Not what you look for when backing an evens poke.

No, I remain keen on Anna Bunina and actually think 4/1 remains a fair price, and the best bet in the race, for those new to the party.

I know she didn't shine at Musselburgh last time but this is a mare who wants good ground, and I really hope she gets that here (even though it is good to soft in places for some reason).

I certainly don't want to hear jockeys coming back from races at Doncaster on Friday and saying it is over-watered. And it does concern me that they watered the whole track on Monday, and were still at it on Wednesday and Thursday.

Leave it alone, clerks, for god's sake. Cheltenham have, so why not Doncaster? It is good ground in January, not like a road in August.

If it is genuinely good ground, and she comes back to the form of her Cheltenham and Ayr handicap handicap runs last spring, then I can easily see her winning this.

Her trainer John McConnell also has a fair chance with 6/1 poke Mahler Mission in the River Don at 14:45 but that seven-runner race looks a tricky one to solve.

Of course, the 17-runner Skybet Chase at 15:20 is no kids' four-part jigsaw , but I am happy with the 20-1 Monday position on Canelo without the need to press up (that King form troubles me a touch, as mentioned earlier).

The case for him is simple. Last year's fourth is very well treated again now on a course he goes well at, and the cheekpieces (in which all his best form has come in) replace the visor he sported for the first time at Kempton last month, a race in which I think he shaped okay in, despite being beaten around a fence.

If this has been the long-term plan for him, then King has got him here on a very good mark.

I also talked up Debece's chances on Monday but I couldn't tip him ante-post because of his fragile nature. By all accounts, he is exceptionally hard to keep sound, which I imagine is why he has missed his last two engagements, most recently in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day.

I was going to recommend him win-only at 10.09/1 or bigger on the exchange, given his blow-out potential due to the physical issues, but the Sportsbook are 15/2 , six places, so I have to take my each-way chances on those terms.

I was not happy when the 8s went at 8.45am, but 15/2 is fine.

I don't think there is much doubt he is better than his current mark of 135, for all he is an 11yo now, and hopefully a wind op since his last start has helped, too.

To put it mildly, he wasn't given an optimal ride when second to Fortescue on his debut for Dan Skelton at Sandown last season - it was a proper Barry Crocker, in truth - and he still remains well treated, despite going up 5lb for the run.

The winner ran a cracker when third off a 15lb higher mark in the Peter Marsh last Saturday. And I think he will love this ground.

Right, that's me done. Another quiet Saturday, but best of luck.

PACE MAPS

Cheltenham 13:55 - Prominent/front-runners: Coole Cody, Farinet, Torn And Frayed. Midfield: Eden Du Houx, She'sasupermack, Galahad Quest. Held Up: Magic Saint, Whatmore, Gaelik Coast, Spiritofthegames, Jacamar

Cheltenham 14:30 - Prominent: Aye Right, Simply The Betts, Santini. Midfield: Chantry House; Held Up: Kauto Riko

Cheltenham 15:05 - Prominent: Lisnagar Oscar? Midfield: Champ, McFabulous. Held Up: Paisley Park (did make running at Newbury), Dandy Mag

Cheltenham 15:40 - Prominent: Hillcrest; Harper's Brook?; Midfield/Held Up: A Different Kind; Held Up: Balco Coastal; North Lodge, Picanha

Doncaster 14:10 - Prominent: Western Victory, Dazzling Glory ? Midfield: Miranda, Anna Bunina. Held Up: Miss Heritage

Doncaster 14:45 - Prominent: Mahler Mission, Unanswered Prayers, Coolbane Boy. Midfield: My Bobby Dazzler, Bridge North, Not At Present. Held Up: The Real Whacker

Doncaster 15:20 - Prominent: Storm Control, Grand Sancy, Debece, Midnight Shadow, Rocco, Some Chaos. Midfield: Cap Du Nord; Kapcorse, Demachine, Cloudy Glen; Janika, Windsor Avenue, Nuts Well, Hill Sixteen. Held Up: Fusil Raffles, Canelo, Hurricane Harvey.

ANTE-POST BETS ALREADY ADVISED
Anna Bunina at 7/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook in 2.10pm at Doncaster on Saturday.
Canelo at 20/1 win-only with Betfair Sportsbook in Skybet Chase at Doncaster on Saturday (3.20pm)