Saturday Racing Tips: Glen Forsa leads Tony Calvin's fresh trio of bets

I know that many will view this as a bit trite and uppity, but there are 20 races on ITV on Saturday and Sunday - and plenty more high-class racing besides - so control and discipline is key.

Pick your battles wisely and selectively, as a scattergun approach will probably not serve you well on a weekend of such unrelenting action.

And that is before I start on the Six Nations.

I always place the vast majority of my bets 24 hours or so before a race or event starts, and only tend to get involved on the day itself when going in again on drifters and putting in in-running keep bets on the exchange.

That approach tends to lend itself to discipline. Not always profitable, but you get my drift.

Anyway, here endeth the lesson, as both Sean Connery and Kevin Costner said in trite, uppity and highbrow tones in The Untouchables, and let's get down to business.

I better not unearth 10 bets after that intro.

Small fields hold no appeal at all

I always find the unremitting flow of small-field Graded and conditions races helps me minimise the betting skirmishes, so I am not even going to mention the following races - the Contenders Hurdle and the Scilly Isles novices' chase at Sandown, both of which have attracted just declarations, and the four-runner Towton Chase - as they have zero imminent punting appeal.

Sure, the likes of L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor are great prospects, but I can kick them into the long grass for now.

Four of the other eight terrestrial races are worryingly dead-eight contests - one non-runner and those fixed-odds each-way bets suddenly look very poor trades - so keep an eagle eye out for withdrawals, especially on decent ground that some connections may baulk at, late doors, after walking the course on Saturday morning

We currently have eight in the ITV opener at Sandown at 13:15 and the ground here is basically good with a bit of ease, after the course watered this week (and publicised just how much too, which is to be applauded). Some rain is forecast on Friday, but not a great amount at the moment.

It is obviously a very tight-knit race with some tactical unknowns - see the pace maps for all 11 ITV races below - but I didn't really shift from my Tuesday position that Frero Banbou interested me most.

A course and distance winner on good to soft, he did very well to win in heavy at Lingfield last time and a 6lb rise for that length win was justified considering the runner-up was a well-handicapped improver, with an in-form third some 18 lengths away.

But I thought he was basically his price at around 9/2 (the 11/2 and 5/1 in the marketplace was taken on Thursday afternoon), so there is no pressing need for a bet.

Beauport will benefit from forecast rain

The 2m7f97yd handicap hurdle at 14:55 is one of the trickiest of its kind I have seen all season, so little wonder those extra places have been drafted in by the layers.

Beauport would surely have beaten Dashel Drasher with a more astute ride at Newbury last time - but, let's face it, all the jockeys gave the winner too much rope there - and I agree with this course winner, who went up just 2lb for that second there, being installed among the favourites.

I may back him win-only on the Exchange to ensure I don't lose if he wins, or even at the Sportsbook's very fair 13/2 each-way, six places. If they get the rain during Friday, which will suit him - I live relatively close by and they must have copped some on Friday morning - I definitely will, in fact.

Dans Le Vent stands out in strong field

The problem is that so many in here have excellent claims - such as fellow 6yos Born Patriot, Ree Okka and Orbys Legend, as well as the year-younger Green Book, effectively brought down when 9/2 joint favourite for the Lanzarote Hurdle - that it is hard to see the woods for the trees.

But, as regards solid place-only prospects, I rate none higher than Dans Le Vent.

He may not have the handicap upside of the younger brigade, but if he reproduces any of the form of his last three starts then he will surely need to be dragged kicking and screaming out of the first six.

If he gets another ride like he did in the Lanzarote last time, I suppose it is entirely possible, as he clearly was held too far out of his ground in near last place in a race in which it paid to be prominent. In the circumstances, he did remarkably well to finish fifth.

But Isobel Williams claims 5lb for a reason, so punters know where they stand pre-race. And it means we can often get a far bigger price than we should.

The sniffiness of some led this horse to going off at a Betfair SP of 20.97 when winning over an extended 3m on good in a competitive handicap at Haydock three starts ago, and I thought he was lucky to not be raised again (she went up 7lb for Haydock) when fourth in the Relkeel, a race in which Williams couldn't claim.

Hopefully, he will ridden a bit handier here, and he has a long straight and a hill to rescue the situation if he is not, and I reckon the return to a longer trip and expected better ground (though the rain may get in) will really suit him.

One firm laughably had him at 14s on Thursday, but I am happy with 9/1 each-way, six places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

He is currently 11.010/1 on the exchange but I think you will get bigger than that, so you may want to wait. He could well drift markedly late on, as he did at Haydock, in which case I am happy to press up.

It was shades of Frero Banbou when assessing Linelee King's chances in a very trappy eight-runner 3m handicap chase at 15:30.

There is little doubt in mind that he is well handicapped after a luckless third over 2m4f at Ayr in December. He would surely have won well there but for sprawling four out, and the handicapper kindly left him alone.

But Olly Murphy, who broke a barren spell with a winner at Leicester on Wednesday, is clearly still in two minds as to his best trip - he also had him over 2m3f at Wetherby this weekend - and he could not have hoped to have bumped into a less competitive handicap than this.

He is a fair price at around 9/2 on the exchange, but no more - he was 11/2 on Thursday - especially facing this stiff 3m, for all he is largely unexposed over staying trips.

Glen Forsa on winnable mark at Musselburgh

The nasty eight is again evidence for the 2m6f veterans' handicap chase at Musselburgh at 14:05 and what makes this even trickier is that all of them like to be ridden aggressively or forward.

So you can imagine the jockeys having a chat beforehand to try to sort out what's what there. A scurrilous suggestion, I am sure.

Common sense will hopefully prevail, and I am hoping Lorcan Williams takes a back seat if the early burn-up occurs, as his mount Glen Forsa is surely on a very winnable mark, especially as he is also eased in trip on better ground.

Aunties and uncles and all that, but if he was coming here straight here after his Ascot fourth on his reappearance, off this 8lb lower mark, he'd be 6/4.

He clearly went too hard that day, going miles clear, only to be reeled in up the straight - he hit 2.18 in running - and this one-time 154-rated chaser (he went off 9/2 for the 2019 Arkle) is clearly a winner-in-waiting off 129 on that run.

But, in addition to the pace concerns, he hasn't shone in two starts since - though he ran better than it appears at Donny last time - and I was deliberating whether to stick him up here.

As I really only fear Calipso Collonges in a truly-run race, the answer is yes at 4/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook. He really could eat these up and spit them out back, dropping into 0-130 grade, and three of Charlie Longson's last six runners have won.

My two ante-post, each-way picks have made it to the final field of eight in the Scottish County Hurdle - Diocletian at 12s and Fiveandtwenty at 8s - at 14:40 and they are shorter now, so there is no need to press up.

If you want to read my Tuesday argument for them, you can do so here.

I didn't expect Anna Bunina to rock up after being undone by Doncaster's watering policy last week and I greatly fear her, as a mark of 133 underplays her talents on genuinely good ground.

To be honest, I may personally have a small saver on her at 8s+ win-only - again I will wait to near the off as the course is expecting a very wet Saturday (up to 15mm perhaps) - but I have to be happy with the ante-post positions.

As regular readers of these columns, and listeners to our Weighed In and Racing Only Podcasts, will know, I generally pay little or no attention to jockeys.

But I have to admit that my initial love for Step Back in the four-miler at 15:45 was somewhat curtailed when seeing Lily Bradstock has had just five rides this season, and she does, understandably, look like a work in progress from the replays I looked at.

Again, I may have a minor tickle on Step Back at 10/1+ but the inexperience of the jockey does worry me, so my sole tip in the race was going to be Coup De Pinceau, but then he was pulled out at 8.17am on Friday morning.

Good luck sorting out what looks a tremendous Grade 1 Juvenile at Leopardstown at 13:35 but there were too many unknowns for me. And the going could end up far more testing than anticipated with plenty of rain forecast (they had 7mm on Thursday night) on heavily -watered ground.

Market leaders Fil Dor and Vauban obviously bring the best form to the party, but I reckon the layers have a fair chance of getting both beat here, such is the unexposed nature of the opposition, but good luck in finding out which one.

I may actually lay the pair at 6/4 and 13/8 respectively, but I will see what the prices are when the Exchange market forms properly.

Delta Work has menacing potential at Leopardstown

The only other Irish race on ITV is the Gold Cup at 15:15 and I was sorely tempted by Delta Work at 15.014/1 or bigger on the exchange.

No, not tempted, I am recommending him as a bet. He is 14/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to bet here.

On the face of it, he has very little chance on recent starts, but go and have a look at his run in the Savills Chase here last time, and I thought he was actually moving up menacingly 2 out when a bad mistake stopped him in his tracks.

It was game over there but this is a horse with three Grade 1 course and distance wins to his name, including in this race in 2020, and he isn't far off the form horses in here at his best.

Maybe, the first-time cheekpieces will revive him too. Mind you, in an interview on ATR on Wednesday Gordon Elliott said he was going to take all the headgear off him and ride him handier, so I don't know what is going on.

The fact that he is wearing them could actually be construed as a negative, but I hope they ride him cold in a race with so much pace in it - going forward would be a big mistake in my opinion, but what do I know? - and I will take my chances at the price, albeit to minimum stakes.

Good luck.

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PACE MAPS ON ITV RACES (or my best guess...)

Sandown 13:15 - Lead/Prominent - Moonlighter?, Bun Doran?; Midfield - Gunsight Ridge, Frero Banbou, Tamaroc Du Mathan; Held Up - Rikoboy, Dolos, Hatcher

Sandown 13:50 - Lead/Prominent - Global Citizen, Goshen, Song For Someone; Midfield - Guard Your Dreams; Held Up - Hunters Call

Sandown 14:20 - Lead/Prominent - L'Homme Presse, Pic D'Orhy, Fugitif, Gladiateur Allen; Midfield - Mister Coffey

Sandown 14:55 - Lead/Prominent - Ree Okka, Green Book, Flemcara; Midfield - Jesultique, Call Me Lord. Orbys Legend, Born Patriot, Dolphin Square, Emmpressive Lady, Padlyourowncanoe, Ask Dillon; Held Up - Dans Le Vent, Beauport, Onagatheringstorm, The Brimming Water, Easysland, The Cob, Garo de Juilley

Sandown 15:30 - Lead/Prominent - Farinet, Five Star Getaway, Undersupervision ; Midfield - Linelee King, Deise Aba, Kapcorse, Le Milos; Held Up - Real Steel

Musselburgh 14:05 - Lead/Prominent - Calipso Collonges, Col Mix, Glen Forsa, Valadom, Broken Quest. Brotherly Company. Pyschedlic Rock, Boy's On Tour

Musselburgh 14:40 - Lead/Prominent - Fiveandtwenty, Highly Prized, Socialist Agenda; Midfield - Wild Max, Anna Bunina. Glory And Honour; Held Up - Diocletian, Pearl Of The West

Musselburgh 15:45 - Lead/Prominent - Step Back, Highland Hunter, Captain Cattistock; Held Up - The Wolf, Mighty Thunder, Robin Des Foret, Coup Des Pinceau

Wetherby 14:30 - Lead/Prominent - Ahoy Senor, Ashtown Lad; Midfield - Noble Yeats; Held Up - Saint Palais

Leopardstown - 13:35 - Lead/Prominent - The Tide Turns, Vauban, Fil Dor,; Six Feet Apart; Midfield - Icare Allen , Ben Siegel; Held Up - Scenic Look, Adaly?. Il Etait Temps

Leopardstown - 15:15 - Lead/Prominent - Frodon, Kemboy, Conflated, Cilaos Emery; Midfield - Minella Indo (possibly prominent?); Asterion Forlonge, Janidil Held Up - Delta Work