Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is an 18/1 handicap debutant at Hexham

• Shaped with more promise than results suggest
• Starts off in handicaps on a very lowly mark
• Rhys Williams thinks Kicksaftersix is overpriced at Hexham

May be capable of improvement on handicap debut

Hexham 15:10: Kicksaftersix 1pt win 18/1

Kicksaftersix has only completed on one of his four starts over hurdles and was beaten 102 lengths on that occasion but I think he could be capable of better than that and despite being 9lb out of the handicap today, he could run well at a big price.

He started his career with Warren Greatrex and showed ability on his first two starts in bumpers at Exeter and Worcester. The four horses that finished ahead of him on debut are all now rated 110+ over hurdles and at Worcester he came up against future Persian War runner up, Outlaw Peter.

However, Kicksaftersix's career hasn't gone so well since. He fell at the second on hurdling debut and his jumping lacked fluency at Doncaster where he quickly dropped away turning into the home straight.

He did show more on his final start for Greatrex at Fontwell where he was very handy from the off and was in front jumping the last in the back straight but once headed turning the final bend he was quickly beaten and finished tailed off.

He was bought by Martin Todhunter for £11,000 after that and made his debut for his new yard at Carlisle over 2m4f last month. He was held up and raced a bit keenly early on. When the pace quickened turning the final bend, he was soon left behind but wasn't given a hard time at all and was pulled up.

I think the drop back in trip will suit Kicksaftersix and the application of a hood for the first time will hopefully help him settle better too. He's also now facing much weaker company on handicap debut than has been the case in novice and maiden hurdles and I expect he needed the run at Carlisle so he will likely be fitter now too.

It might be that he follows the same pattern as many of his sire's progeny and is just a very weak finisher or that he's had a problem that means he now longer retains anywhere near the ability he showed in his bumpers but I think he's overpriced given the potential for improvement in a weak race and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.