Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a maiden handicapper at Carlisle

Excuses for last two runs

Carlisle 13:40: Real Terms 1pt win 10/1

Real Terms didn't build on a good handicap debut last season but I think there were excuses for those two runs and she can bounce back on her first start of the year.

Her handicap debut was over 1m2f at Wetherby and she was beaten three quarters of a length by Bollin Margaret who won her next two starts.

They dropped Real Terms back a mile next time at Musselburgh to run in the Sunday Series but she looked to lack the necessary pace for that trip and wasn't given a hard time while edging right in the closing stages.

She ran over a similar trip to the one she races over today on her last start at Hamilton. After tracking the leader on the rail, she was nudged along three furlongs out. However, she couldn't get a clear run and was then squeezed up between Innse Gall and Golden Dove.

Real Terms dropped back to last and came under pressure but it was too late to make any significant headway and she could only gain one place to finish fifth.

She's been dropped 3lb for those two runs so now races off a 2lb higher mark than when finishing second behind Bollin Margaret who was completing the first leg of a hat-trick. I'm also expecting her to be well positioned tracking Lord Torranaga.

It may be that she will need the run on her first start for 309 days or that handicap debutant Cappoquin will be too good for this field, as she steps up in trip having had an interesting collection of performances so far.

However I think Real Terms is a little overpriced given her potential for improvement and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.