Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a maiden at Dundalk

Potential to improve in very weak race

Dundalk 18:30: Ballysax 0.5pt e/w 100/1

Guiliana and Gold Wing head the market for this fillies maiden but they've had 23 attempts without winning between them and both are wearing headgear for the first time. Stardayz is the obvious alternative as she drops back to a more suitable trip but the market hasn't missed that whereas I think it has missed the potential for improvement of an outsider.

Ballysax had two runs last year for William Knight and showed a bit of promise on debut over a mile at Nottingham. She was extremely green early on and was frequently shaken along towards the back of the field. She was pushed along early in the home straight and made a bit of headway but she wasn't given a hard time after and finished twelfth.

That was a much stronger maiden that the one she contests today and she showed some ability while also suggesting that there could be plenty of improvement to come given how green she was throughout the race.

Ballysax finished tailed off on her only other start for Knight but that came on very testing ground at Haydock where she raced handily before dropping away very quickly with three furlongs to go.

It was at least encouraging that she showed more mental sharpness early in the race that day and I think today's artificial surface will be far more to her liking than the ground at Haydock.

She's since been off the track for 259 days and switched yards to join Bill Farrell. It might be that she will need the run today or that she's had a problem that means she won't progress from her debut but I can't let her go unbacked in a race of this quality and any 50/1 or bigger appeals.