Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Carroll miler to bounce back at Brighton

Excuses for last two poor runs

Brighton 13:00: Headshot 1pt win 8/1

Headshot has only beaten two rivals in his last two starts but there were excuses for both of those performances and now back on turf over a mile, I think he could bounce back this afternoon.

At Wolverhampton last time he was squeezed up between two rivals coming out of the stalls which left him in last place before he was pushed along to take a prominent position four wide on the first bend. He continued to race wide in that position until dropping away from just over a furlong out and finishing ninth.

Prior to that, he looked a non-stayer on 1m2f at this track when he travelled well to join the leader turning into the home straight but didn't pick up under pressure from 1½ furlongs out and faded quickly late on to finish last.

Earlier in this season, Headshot won a class 6 handicap at Bath off the same mark that he races off today and followed that up with a nose defeat at the same track under a 5lb penalty.

I think the drop back to a mile today and potential for a fairly good pace that he can track will suit and he showed four starts ago that he can handle this track when finishing second to Wisper.

There is a slight concern that the overnight rain may have turned the ground a bit slower than ideal for him but he will at least be racing on the best of it so hopefully that won't be an issue.

I think the market has overreacted to two runs for which there were clear excuses and any 15/2 or bigger appeals.