Didn't get a clear run last time
Chepstow 14:25: Epeius 1pt win 9/1
Epeius finished behind Bama Lama over C&D last time but he didn't get a clear run and I think he could be capable of reversing that form today.
Epeius was a bit awkwardly away from the stalls that day and raced on the near rail a bit further back than midfield early on. Shaken along at halfway, he was starting to make headway 1½ furlongs out when his run was blocked. He had to be steadied and switched inside and finished strongly from that point to take sixth without ever looking like challenging the winner.
That run was on the back of another good run in defeat at Windsor behind Hagia Sophia, who has won again since, and Epeius is likely to have a good pace to close into today with a middle draw hopefully giving David Probert more options of where to get a clear run.
He is a little worse off than he would be in a handicap with a few of his rivals but I think the market is currently overplaying that and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.
Likely strong pace to close into
Chepstow 16:00: Bolly Bullet 1pt win 20/1
Bolly Bullet has been well beaten on his last two starts but I think he has a chance to bounce back this afternoon.
It's easy to forgive his latest run at Salisbury as he was very awkwardly away from the stalls and was poorly positioned as a result in a race where it was beneficial to be handy.
Prior to that he raced over a mile at this track where he raced far too keenly and dropped away quickly late on.
His most recent start over C&D was a respectable one off an 8lb higher mark than he races off today when finishing fifth behind Macs Dilemma. That race was only evenly run whereas I'm expecting there to be a strong pace today as this race is packed with front runners.
That will not only help Bolly Bullet to settle better in the early stages but will also give him a better chance to close late and pick off those weakening in front. I think the removal of the hood is another positive for his chance too and the cheekpieces that he wore when narrowly beaten off 74 over C&D last year and are back on.
It may be that he will once again lose his chance at the stalls through being awkwardly away or it might be that he's got a serious wind issue as he's generally shown very little since having a wind op last year but I think if he's ever going to bounce back then these circumstances give him the best chance to do so and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Recommended bets
Back Epeius in the 14:25 at Chepstow 1pt win at 10.09/1
Back Bolly Bullet in the 16:00 at Chepstow 1pt win at 21.020/1
RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022
Staked: 238.50pts
Returned: 321.43pts
P/L: +82.93pts