Sandown 15:10 - Wicklow Brave and Midnight Game
There probably won't be many harder Cheltenham puzzles to solve than the one that Saturday's 24-runner Imperial Cup at Sandown presents, and all the top stables are represented by some likely sorts, too.
Given the stable's record in the race you can fully understand why David Pipe's unbeaten Bidourey heads the market, "Saturday king" Paul Nicholls will be expecting a big run from his Betfair Hurdle fourth Calipto, and I don't think that Nicky Henderson would have expected that one of the gossip horses of the last two seasons, West Wizard, to ever be let loose off a mark of 132 in a handicap.
All clearly have good chances but I reckon that the trainer who is widely expected to clean up at Cheltenham next week, a certain Willie Mullins, could provide the answer here with Wicklow Brave at odds of 25.024/1.
This time last year Wicklow Brave was sent off an 8/1 chance for the Supreme and actually traded at 2.35/4 in running when sitting second going to the last, before losing four places late on the run-in and eventually finishing sixth.
And this is a horse who had earlier beaten Lieutenant Colonel by four lengths in heavy ground at Punchestown.
Clearly, things haven't gone to plan since last year's Festival but he has dropped to a mark of 138 and I thought that there was enough promise in his midfield run in the Betfair Hurdle last time to risk him at the prices here.
A tardy start at the tapes saw him set off plum last, but he travelled well throughout the race, and made his effort after the third last. That run soon petered out, not helped by losing a couple of lengths when swerving around a faller, but the Betfair Hurdle was a strange race in that nothing really could get into the race from off the pace.
If Mullins can coax the horse back to the form he was in this time last year, then he will outrun odds of 25/1.
I am happy to go in two-handed in this, and my other selection is an even bigger outsider in the shape of Midnight Game at odds of 60.059/1.
He is actually a former Mullins inmate - he ran off a mark of 150 in the County Hurdle two years ago - but has recently come to his current stable via Gordon Elliot, Ellison picking him up for 26,000gns from Gigginstown back in September.
He has had the two runs for Ellison and there was a lot of promise in his 25/1 second to Dark Dune at Newcastle last time.
I backed the winner that day and he was given an excellent ride from the front, and I thought that Midnight Game wasn't given too hard a time of it in second once his rider knew that he couldn't reel in the winner, though he was still comfortably clear of the in-form Smooth Stepper in third.
With the excellent Gavin Sheehan taking over from a 5lb claimer, I reckon Midnight Game has a fighting chance in this off a mark of 130, some 20lb lower than his peak rating two years ago. And Ellison knows how to sweeten a horse up, and ready it for a big handicap prize.
Sandown 14:00 - Great Try.
Nicholls may be out of luck in the big one on a Saturday for a change - though there is stable confidence behind Calipto - but I like the chances of his Great Try in another fiercely competitive handle at 14:00.
I think he could have been let in very lightly here on the evidence of his three hurdling starts to date. A useful bumper winner, he was beaten by good horses at Aintree and Newbury - both of the winners of those races have won since - before winning in a good time at Bangor last time.
The step up in trip should really suit him, and I can see him running a very big race here. Odds of around 10.09/1 or bigger would be very fair.
Sandown 14:35 - Mosspark
I am also going to chuck a couple of quid at Mosspark in the 14:35 at odds of 7.06/1.
He ran better in a first time visor over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time, and the handicapper has dropped him another 2lb for that fair effort.
Stepped back up in trip, he looks weighted to win now as a mark of 128 looks very tempting indeed on his hurdles form and a couple of chase starts earlier in the season.
There are two 50k Wolverhampton handicaps on C4 too, and while I am going to keep my powder dry personally, I'm happy to give you my thoughts on both races. I'm generous like that.
Chookie Royale loves it here and is a fully deserved favourite in the opener at 14:15, after seemingly a career-best effort at Chelmsford last time. But if he does run 5lb or so below form, there are several in here that could give him a race, including some fellow improvers and a French raider.
It could be that Grey Mirage presents a fair win and place option at around 10/1, but this race isn't for me in truth.
Neither is the Lincoln Trial at 14:50, but Santefisio very nearly tempted me in at a double-figure price. He hasn't run to anywhere near his best at Lingfield on his last two starts but he would go close here if returning to his close third here over course and distance in January.
Here is hoping that you have a few winners over the weekend to get the old betting balance up for Cheltenham next week. I'll be back at around 5pm on Monday afternoon with Day One Festival tips.
Recommended Bets
Back Wicklow Brave @ 25.024/1 in the 15:10 at Sandown
Back Midnight Game @ 60.059/1 in the 15:10 at Sandown
Back Great Try @ 10.09/1 or bigger in the 14:00 at Sandown
Back Mosspark @ 7.06/1 in the 14:35 at Sandown