The Scottish Grand National, run in one form or another since 1867, is one of the biggest prizes for staying handicap chasers in the National Hunt calendar. Initially staged at Bogside Racecourse, over three miles, and called the "West of Scotland Grand National", the inaugural running was won by The Elk, owned by the Duke of Hamilton. The race became known by its present title in 1881, and was switched to Ayr Racecourse when Bogside closed down in 1965.
Currently heading the market for this year's renewal is the Paul Nicholls-trained Harry the Viking who has taken to chasing particularly well this season in winning two of his three starts. His latest run, when second to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, confirmed that the seven-year-old has stamina in abundance and marked him down as an obvious candidate for this sort of race. His previous run, beating Ikorodu Road by a head at Doncaster conceding 5 lb to that rival, also reads very well and, as he remains open to further improvement, he would look to be a leading contender to land this prize.
Since being felled by Harry the Viking, Ikorodu Road has gone on to record two wins in his subsequent three starts, including the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster. The nine-year-old is admirably consistent and genuine, evidenced by him achieving a similar rating in each of his last four starts, and he is as likely as any to give you a run for your money, although the suspicion is that he may just prove vulnerable to a better-treated rival.
One such rival could be the unexposed Portrait King, trained in Ireland by Maurice Phelan. The grey has progressed well in the three handicap chases that he has contested, finishing second at Fairyhouse on his handicap debut before winning at Punchestown and in the Eider Chase at Newcastle. The handicapper has raised him 9 lb for the latter success, which clearly demands a further step forward, but that cannot be ruled out given his profile.
A brace of horses that are coming to the race after failures in last Saturday's Grand National are West End Rocker and Junior, both having departed at the second fence at Aintree. The former has been hit with a rise in the weights for his runaway success in the Becher Chase in December, demanding further progression even if he is over the experience of Aintree, whilst Junior had clearly been laid-out for a tilt at the Grand National, a plan which went awry, and his participation here strikes as something of an afterthought.
Fruity O'Rooney can be described in similar terms as Ikorodu Road, a thoroughly genuine and likable handicapper who is highly likely to give his running. His latest run, when second to Alfie Sherrin at Cheltenham, actually represented an improved level of form having looked fairly exposed for some time. Again, he is almost certain to perform admirably from the front, but it is possible to see him being run down late on.
Galaxy Rock's latest start, finishing third at Bangor towards the end of last month, can be marked down as a promising effort returning from a short break, given that it was possibly being used as a stepping stone to Saturday's contest. The form of his November Cheltenham win has worked out well, with Carruthers and Hey Big Spender finishing in-behind, and this sort of test ought to suit ideally although, for him to play a leading role, it is likely that he needs to make a step forward.
Merigo, who won the race in 2010 and was runner-up last year, looks to have an excellent chance once more following a win at the track on his latest outing. His 2011 effort was a career-best, achieved racing from 12 lb out of the weights due to the presence of recent Grand National winner Neptune Collonges at the head of the field, and, after his first four starts this season were somewhat underwhelming, he looked back to his best when notching that victory last time. He will contest this year's renewal from an 8 lb lower mark than 12 months ago, making him a very attractive proposition from a handicapping viewpoint, whilst there has also been plenty of market support for him in recent days.
It is possible to make a case for any number of the participants, but it is Merigo who strikes as having the best chance of success. The 11-year-old has been given an excellent chance by the handicapper, is to the fore of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, and has been trained with winning this race as his primary objective. Harry the Viking merits plenty of respect, as does the progressive Portrait King, but it is sometimes best to stick with those that have been there and done it, and Merigo fits the bill perfectly.
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