The Festival's ever-growing appeal and position as the fulcrum of the National Hunt calendar has ensured that merely obtaining a run in a Cheltenham handicap is an increasingly difficult feat. This year the 11 Festival handicaps have attracted a record number of entries- 1,145 to be precise- and it looks as if plenty of unexposed and interesting performers will miss the cut. The Imperial Cup, set to be run at Sandown on Saturday, offers trainers a chance to secure a vital 5 lb penalty for their contenders and it looks like being an informative affair in regards to sorting out the field for the County Hurdle.
One surprising omission from Saturday's field is the Evan Williams-trained Court Minstrel. Having shown ability last year in bumpers, Court Minstrel has taken well to hurdling, looking like a horse that may be considerably better than the BHA mark of 131 he was allotted by the handicapper following a luckless run behind Dodging Bullets in a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham. His mark was left unchanged following one subsequent effort in the Tolworth Hurdle, where he was probably unsuited by the heavy ground, but, while he is potentially thrown in, he looks unlikely to get a run in the County Hurdle. He would have a favourite's chance were he to line up, and he will probably be declared whatever happens, ensuring backers get their money back should he be balloted out, but, from an ante-post angle, it could be worth concentrating on those with a greater chance of running.
Claret Cloak, who has a BHA rating of 135, also needs plenty to come out but, considering the amount of doubly-engaged horses ahead of him, should just sneak in, even if he fails to win the Imperial Cup on Saturday. He is another lightly-raced individual that could be well ahead of his mark, his seasonal reappearance at Ascot in October a most encouraging performance, but the form of trainer Emma Lavelle would have to register as something of a concern, her last winner coming in December.
Similar sentiments apply to last year's third-placed horse Sailors Warn. The form of the 2012 County Hurdle looks solid and Edward O'Grady's charge is rated only 1 lb higher, but it is disconcerting that the yard haven't had a winner since November, even allowing for the fact they have had fewer runners than in previous years.
Having expressed doubts about both the Lavelle and O'Grady yards, it would be unwise to be too pessimistic about their contenders, both having excellent chances at the weights if you could be certain they were at the peak of their powers. They are entitled to respect, particularly if their trainers were to have a winner prior to the Festival, but the lingering doubts mean we turn elsewhere for the ante-post selection.
One Irish raider that merits consideration is Ted Veale. The six-year-old novice produced a career-best effort in the valuable Boylesports Hurdle last time, finishing third having travelled strongly for much of the contest, and would seem ideally suited to the demands of the County Hurdle, the fast pace and quicker ground likely to be in his favour. Considering the money that poured on Tony Martin's charge prior to his latest effort, connections evidently feel that he has a bit in hand over the assessor and a mark of 134 should ensure that he just creeps in at the foot of the weights with an excellent chance of success.
Almost certain to get in, unexposed and trained by Paul Nicholls, Ranjaan would appear to have plenty going for him. The five-year-old has only had the one spin over hurdles this term, finishing midfield in the ultra-competitive Ladbroke Hurdle, but he shaped significantly better than the bare result on the testing ground, racing with zest for much of the way before weakening in the straight. He has since performed with credit in a jumpers' bumper, beaten only by something of a specialist in Dr Livingstone, and it was encouraging to see him once again race with enthusiasm. He still looks well treated over hurdles, is open to further improvement having had just the five starts in that sphere and the manner in which he took the scalp of Third Intention at Taunton last year was visually impressive. Ranjaan appears to be an attractive price at 23.022/1 and is likely to start significantly shorter, particularly if the ground dries out by the final day and Ruby Walsh is booked to ride.
Two horses at decent prices that need to be monitored are Kazlian and Pine Creek. Both are engaged in Saturday's Imperial Cup and probably need to win to guarantee a starting berth in the County Hurdle, and they are of interest for differing reasons. The David Pipe-trained Kazlian certainly looks well handicapped based on his effort in last year's Fred Winter where he was committed for home far too soon, eventually weakening into fourth place. Unsurprisingly, following such a hard race, Kazlian ran flat at Aintree, failing to show the same sparkle he had for much of the way at Prestbury Park, and his two performances this year have also been disappointing, prompting fears the Fred Winter may have bottomed him. However, Kazlian has been given a break, and the return to a sound surface could also lead to an improved performance. With the Pipes famed for their success in the Imperial Cup, it wouldn't be the greatest shock to see Kazlian bounce back to form.
John Ferguson's Pine Creek is inexperienced over hurdles but has created a good impression in his fledgling career, winning at Doncaster last time despite a few sloppy jumps on the way round. It was encouraging to see him knuckle down under pressure after the last and he is capable of better.
Tominator has more than one Festival target, but he will need to secure a penalty on Saturday if he is to have any chance of getting a run at Cheltenham. A useful stayer on the Flat, Tominator's jumping hasn't been immaculate, but he put in a better round at Sandown, winning with more in hand than the winning margin would suggest, and a large-field handicap could play to this strong traveller's strengths.
In a fiercely-competitive race, with some of the leading market principals likely to miss the cut, there could be a bit of ante-post value in backing Ted Veale and Ranjaan, both of whom appeal as horses likely to get into the race and thrive when faced with a fast-run contest. Plenty remain open to progress, but this lightly raced pair may be capable of improving more than most and should be kept onside.
Recommendations
Back Ted Veale @ 18.535/2 & Ranjaan @ 23.022/1 in the County Hurdle
