I'm going to start this preview by recognising the fact that not all of you will be happy upon the conclusion, as it is long odds-on that I will have failed to mention your idea of the most likely winner.
The Cesarewitch, like many of the big handicaps throughout the Flat season, is one of those races in which people form very definite opinions as to what they think will run well and it is incredibly difficult to eradicate those opinions, or at least suggest an alternative point of view, once they have become entrenched.
I would very much like to take Tony Martin, trainer of Ted Veale, by the shoulders and give him a good shake whilst roaring "Run him at Newmarket!" into his face as it would appear that the plan is to swerve the Cesarewitch and instead run over fences in a few weeks. His chance is so compelling that, in my mind, Ted Veale has already won the Cesarewitch and I'm finding it particularly difficult to move on and find an alternative bet.
Needs must though and a good starting point would appear to be Tiger Cliff, winner of the Ebor when last seen in August. That impressive success continued the four-year-old's race-to-race improvement and there is little reason to think that he won't kick on again given the way his career has gone to date. We know he'll stay, as he was an arguably unlucky second in the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles and was only hitting full stride late on in the Ebor, and we're pretty certain that he possesses the ability to defy a BHA mark of 104, just 6 lb higher than for his Knavesmire triumph.
The conundrum is the price, with Lady Cecil's charge currently trading at 8.07/1. If he's that sort of price on the day then he is the bet, without a shadow of a doubt, but from an ante-post perspective I'm not sure. This very much depends upon your own personal preference with regards to betting but for me at least the best play is to back something at a slightly bigger price now and then get Tiger Cliff on side come the day.
Another obvious Cesarewitch candidate is Pallasator, who made his seasonal reappearance in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock last month. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott is more than capable of getting one ready first time up, but Pallasator is an absolute beast of a horse and I had reservations as to just how well he would go. "Very" was the answer and he was deserving of extra credit as things went, left with far too much to do but making up loads of ground isndie the final couple of furlongs to grab third.
Pallasator didn't look entirely straightforward that day, coming off the bridle a long way from home and hanging a bit, but he found plenty for pressure and left the impression that he had more to offer, particularly when granted a greater test of stamina. In similar style to Tiger Cliff the suspicion is that he will wind up being better than a top-end handicapper, and it would come as no surprise were he to begin to prove that from now on.
The Charles Byrnes-trained Domination, winner of the Cesarewitch Trial last year, didn't run in the main event itself but seems set to do so this time around as long as the rain stays away. The six-year-old has been campaigned over hurdles recently, winning his last two races and looking worth a go at graded level in that sphere, but this has always been the target and he is likely to be primed for the day. His trainer reports that he won't run if it comes up soft however, so a weather watch is the call at this stage.
Whilst on the topic of the Cesarewitch Trial, this year's renewal was won by Mark Johnston's Oriental Fox, who produced a big career-best to triumph by three and a quarter lengths. He clearly benefitted from the emphasis on stamina but to some extent we know where we are with him now, and there are likely to be other improvers for the trip in the Cesarewitch itself.
The horse that finished third in that race, namely Brockwell, is arguably of more interest than Oriental Fox with the four-year-old having raced closer to the overly-strong pace than the rest of the principals. The cards have rarely fallen right for him this year but he did shape better than the bare result and is one to bear in mind at 32.031/1.
The penultimate horse to mention is Lieutenant Miller, who started out over hurdles but has done well on the Flat this year, hitting the mark at Doncaster in April and posting good efforts in defeat since at both Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. For all that he didn't put the Goodwood race to bed as it looked he might at one stage, leading virtually on the bridle prior to being mown down by Broxbourne, there remains an unexposed element to him on the level which certainly puts him on the radar for this race.
The final one were going to discuss, and ultimately the one I'm to advise backing at this stage, is a horse that will be an unknown to the majority of the UK racing public. Trained in France by Mikel Delzangles, who isn't averse to sending a raider across the Channel, Smoky Hill will race from a BHA mark of 91 on his first race outside of his native country.
The four-year-old, an expensive and well-bred purchase as a yearling, was successful in a minor race at Maisons-Laffitte in July and stepped up on anything he had done previously to finish fourth in the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur, beaten just three lengths by Domeside. I encourage you to go and watch the race (click HERE) and form your own opinions but my overriding thought was that he would be ideally suited to the demands of the Cesarewitch.
Travelling well for a long way in mid-field, Smoky Hill simply couldn't quicken quite as well as the three that beat him but he stuck on for pressure in dogged fashion. The Cesarewitch is likely to be run at a stronger gallop, which will suit, as will the extra two furlongs as he was going on at the finish at Longchamp and should have no problems in staying.
The 15.529/2 floating around about Smoky Hill seems more than fair, particularly when considering that a mark of 91 could underestimate his true ability and that we probably haven't seen the best of him yet. Tiger Cliff is well worth a saver come the day but, at this moment in time, I'm more inclined to side with the French and take Smoky Hill.
Recommendation:
Back Smoky Hill @ 15.529/2 in the Cesarewitch
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