The first four races of the opening day of Aintree's Grand National meeting have less than 10 runners. The last three have 24, 18 and 20. It's pretty obvious, then, which are lay-friendly.
The SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices' Chase at 13:45 has two that are likely to start at around 4.03/1 - Pic d'Orhy and War Lord. Both have been placed in Grade 1 chases at Sandown, but they finished a long way behind the winner - War Lord in the Henry VIII won by Edwardstone; Pic d'Orhy in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase won by L'Homme Presse.
If you want to lay one or other for a win, bear in mind Pic d'Orhy is officially rated 5lb superior due to his two Grade 2 wins but that is tempered by the fact that he has fallen or unseated on four occasions. War Lord has run 16 times over hurdles and fences and completed every time.
War Lord has come a long way in six months. Here he is in a Grade 1, yet he was the outsider of four for a handicap at Newton Abbot when he made his chasing debut in October. I'm tempted to put him up as a lay but the fact he has jumped 60 fences and not made an error means he is the most likely of the seven to finish, and the likely winner if Pic d'Orhy makes mistakes or falls.
Pied Piper taken to see off Brazil challenge
The Jewson Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle is another lay-friendly race with Pied Piper 2.1211/10 and Brazil 3.613/5 the two shorties. Petit Tonnerre 12.523/2 is next in the betting then it is 21.020/1 bar the three.
The two that head the betting both come on from Cheltenham. Pied Piper went down fighting in the Triumph. Brazil floored a monumental gamble on Gaelic Warrior in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.
There shouldn't be much between them but Pied Piper's form is the classier and I would expect him to come out on top.
In addition to putting up Brazil as a win lay. I suggest you lay Petit Tonnerre for a place 3.02/1.
The lesser fancied of JP McManus' two runners is unbeaten but the form of his wins at Dieppe, Compiegne and Market Rasen doesn't amount to much.
It certainly is no better than Knight Salute's Grade 2 win in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, Impulsive One's Scottish Triumph Hurdle success or Inca Prince's two Musselburgh victories since the turn of the year.
Given Pied Piper and Brazil should occupy the first two places, that's four horses with similar form fighting for third spot. On that basis I'm happy to lay Petit Tonnerre for a place.
Kemboy could struggle on his return to Aintree
Two previous winners of the Betway Bowl contest this year's renewal at 14:55 - Clan Des Obeaux won it 12 months ago, Kemboy won it in 2019. It is a matter of fact, rather than opinion, that the former remains in form. Kemboy, on the other hand, has turned in some ropey efforts since his last win back in February 2021.
In an open-looking Grade 1, there are four others shorter than 10.09/1. Conflated was a surprise winner of the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup - Kemboy, only fifth - and showed that was no fluke when running another good race in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. He was disputing second when falling two out, a little ahead of Eldorado Allen at the time.
Protektorat has a 100% record here on the Mildmay course. He won the Grade 1 novices' chase over two and a half miles last April, and the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase over this distance in December.
He crossed the line in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in third, a short head and a neck in front of Royal Pagaille.
There is not a lot to lose whichever of the six you opt to lay for a place but Kemboy makes the least appeal. He is going to have to improve on his form of the last 12 months to finish in front of the other five.
Intriguing rematch for the Aintree Hurdle
Three of the first five home in the Champion Hurdle line up for the Aintree Hurdle at 15:30.
The distance is half a mile further, and those four furlongs will likely determine which of the specialist two-milers comes out on top.
Epatante was runner-up to Honeysuckle at Cheltenham, with Zanahiyr a length behind her; Glory And Fortune was a further four lengths back in fifth.
Which one to lay is down to personal preference, but the ground has gone against Tom Lacey's runner which has drifted out to 15.014/1 in the last 48 hours.
Zanahiyr is improving and his latest run was a career-best. His CV says he has yet to win a Grade 1, and his only victory since 2020 came in a weak Grade 2 at Down Royal last autumn.
Epatante, in contrast, has won five Grade 1s over hurdles and the Grade 1 bumper in France that prompted JP McManus to splash his cash and buy her.
I'd rather back a horse that has been there, done it and has the tee-shirt, and lay an up-and-coming youngster that has yet to win at the highest level. I recommend laying Zanahiyr 3.3512/5.
The three races at the end of the card are not user-friendly for layers. I wasn't intending to play but if Jett gets any shorter, you might want to lay him win and place in the Randox Hunters' Chase at 16:05. The 11-year-old is not as fast as he was and it is difficult to take any positives from his recent second when odds-on at Fontwell.
Jett rarely falls but errors have started to creep in. He is currently 4.47/2 but if he went 3.02/1 in running and 1.51/2 for a place, I would be looking to lay him.