Aintree Tips: Hatcher the headline bet for Tony Calvin on day one of Grand National Festival

• It's day one of the Grand National Festival

• Tony has two double figure bets for the 16:40

• A value bet in the opener

• And a huge outsider at an each-way price

Aintree going good to soft, more rain forecast

Aintree watered as recently as Friday evening, the ground was changed to good to soft, good in places, after 10.8mm hit the track the day on Monday - it is good to soft on the National course - and it is pretty much rain all the way now, though they only got 1.4mm on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Friday are looking particularly wet, so bear that in mind - the weather sites often vary wildly as to the amounts but the main one I use has around 21mm coming from midweek into Saturday - and it is only that prospect which is stopping me having a right old pop on Hatcher in the Red Rum handicap at 16:40.

It may be a lot less as, in truth, we are all guessing.

Skeltons Hatching another handicap coup?

Hatcher - Aintree, 16:40

I rather showed my Thursday hand early on the Racing Only Bettor podcast, which went live on Tuesday afternoon (and which you can wartch below), but let's crack on. I am totally driven by prices, so I will make a call at the current odds.

Anyway, back to Hatcher. The horse did win on soft back in 2019 but all his best form has come on a better surface since, and the ground is a major concern.

However, he is so well handicapped that I have to side with him, albeit to much reduced stakes. The opening 20/1 on Tuesday morning looked mighty big, and the 16s went on Tuesday evening, but I am happy to back him to small stakes at 15.014/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is also available at 14/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to back him there.

I tipped him on his return at Newbury in November off a mark of 142, following which he drifted wildly in the final few minutes of trading (went off at Betfair SP of 40.34, having been 10/1 in the morning) and ran like a drain.

Undeterred, I said to a mate at the time that he was still a potential plot horse for the Grand Annual, though I must admit that analysis didn't look too clever after he again failed to finish at Doncaster and Ludlow, and he didn't even rock up at Cheltenham.

However, after a wind op and after a 103-day break, he ran a stormer when third to a couple of well handicapped horses in Black Gerry and Frere D'Armes at Ascot earlier this month, and he is surely weighted to win now he has shown there is some life in his 10yo legs.

He was dropped a very handy 12lb for his first three starts of the season - the handicappers do love Dan Skelton - and he can race off just 130 here, the same mark as that good Ascot third when exceptionally weak in the market (went off at a Betfair SP of 150.0) and that is some 13lb lower than for his last victory in 2021, after which he went up to 150.

If the ground doesn't get very bad - and Thursday is forecast to be the best day of the week, to look on the bright side, with minimal rain due - then he really is handicapped to do some damage, with a claimer taking off another 5lb.

The quick turnaround is another question mark but he wasn't given too hard time of it at Ascot and this is a horse who won four races in the space of less than two months back in 2018.

Sure, he has clearly had his issues in recent times but a mark of 130 seriously underestimates his peak ability if Skelton has genuinely coaxed him back to form. The stable may pull him out if the ground is riding worse than soft on the day, I suppose, but then no damage will be done. He is most definitely a win-only bet.

Hasankey my other bet in the race

Hasankey - Aintree, 16:40

I was actually going to recommend a bigger bet on Hasankey at 20/1 each-way, four places - at this stage anyway - with the Betfair Sportsbook, but that was cut into 12s on Tuesday afternoon.

However, there is still some 16/1 in the marketplace, so now look to back him at 17.016/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange.

There are no problems with worsening ground for him, as he is a dual heavy ground winner, and he ran a cracking race when second to Red Rookie on soft at Warwick last month.

I don't know anything about his regular 7lb claimer Lewis Dobb but he obviously gets on well with him, and the horse simply looks highly likely to run his race. Hopefully, that will be enough to see him run a biggie.

I have a Vision

Visionarian - Aintree, 13:45

The Grade 1 novices' chase that opens the card at 13:45 isn't on ITV and has seen its five-day numbers dwindle from 16 to just five, its absentees including Jonbon, and Banbridge maybe could be a late non-runner too if they get the upper end of the rain forecast.

So be careful if you are betting there as, not only will there be a hefty Rule 4 if he is pulled out (he is currently 13/8), the each-way terms will also change.

I thought if there was a bet in the race then Visionarian, a 2 ½-length second to Saint Roi in a Grade 1 on Boxing Day and proven on the ground and over the trip - and also a potential pace angle, along with Stage Star - looked very much on the big side at the Sportsbook's opening 25/1.

Douglas Talking is the obvious favourite in here after a hugely impressive Sandown win last time (he could have got more than 10lb for that) but he is already into 9/2 and I imagine he could be 4s before too long.

He has been trimmed into 16/1 there, and again into 14s on Wednesday morning, but I remain happy to chuck a few quid at him at 17.016/1 or bigger on the exchange (available at 18/1+ in the wider marketplace).

Chaos Control the fourth and final bet

Chaos Control - Aintree, 14:20

In truth, it is not actually a very attractive punting card, with the 28-runner Foxhunters' Chase at 16:05 and the 20-runner mares' bumper at 17:15 hardly screaming "come on and punt on me."

With 1/7 poke Constitution Hill winning bar a fall in the Aintree Hurdle at 15:30 and the Bowl at 14:55 attracting six runners - I will come back to those races in a minute - that leaves me with the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 14:20 to try to eke out a bet.

The Triumph Hurdle third Zenta is 7/5 in the youngsters' race, and obviously has a big chance with that 7lb sex allowance, but I think it may pay to think outside of the box in this race, as maybe the Cheltenham juvenile form isn't quite as good as the Betfair betting makes out.

Fellow female Pawapuri is interesting at 33/1+ on the exchange having shaped far better than her finishing position suggests in the Adonis but the anticipated ground would worry you, and I suppose the same applies to Chaos Control given he was pulled out in testing ground when trained in Ireland and current connections apparently believe he is better suited to a decent surface.

However, I reckon they should take a chance with him as he ran well enough on soft ground on his hurdling debut at Kempton and both his sire and dam were winners in heavy ground, and he was very impressive when a wide-margin scorer in a good time at Market Rasen last time out in February. That was on good ground, admittedly, but he really did bolt up there.

The horse he chinned by 22 lengths that day was beaten only a short-head next time up, and the third had previously finished fourth to Comfort Zone in a Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle trial beforehand, and I rate trainer Stuart Edmunds.

He is firing in the winners at the moment, with four successes this month going into Wednesday (he has four decent enough chances at Southwell). He landed a gamble with Hometown Boy at this meeting two years ago and his Gentleman At Arms nearly did me a favour at a big price when second in the Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle last season.

As with Hatcher, he may well be a non-runner and we simply get our money back if the heavens really do open, but I'll take my chances.

Back him at 25/1 each way, three places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I couldn't find an angle in the "Betting Without" market in the Aintree Hurdle and the Bowl at 14:55 really is the most trappy of races.

It is a very high-class renewal, don't get me wrong, but I can easily see any five of the six winning, and I wouldn't entirely rule out Ryanair fifth Ga Law stepping up in trip, either.

In fact, I'd probably back Ga Law at 50/1+ if given a free bet.

The Foxhunters' really is a complete no-no for me but I did have a look at the mares' bumper, but I am about as useful as a chocolate fireguard in these types of races, so I am not even going to burden you with a token, throwaway selection.

Good luck.