1,000 Guineas Antepost Tips: Tony Calvin is embracing a 100/1 shot in Sunday's classic

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Tony is taking a swing at a 100/1 shot in Sunday's 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket

Newmaret Guineas weekend is fast approaching and our resident tipster Tony Calvin takes a brief look at the 2,000 before talking us through his 100/1 tip in the 1,000 on Sunday...

  • Tony Calvin takes an early look at the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas

  • Male classic looks set to be fought out by market leaders

  • Fillies version could provide an upset and Tony has a 100/1 tip


The vibes for the form horses at the top of the 2,000 Guineas market are pretty strong, but that is maybe not the case for the female version, so the latter Classic is where I will be focusing this column.

Just a few lines on the boys first, though.

Will Auguste take 2,000 Guineas before Triple Crown bid?

It seems that Aidan O'Brien really does think they have a potential Triple Crown horse on their hands in Auguste Rodin - Camelot being downed by a drug-fuelled Encke in 2012 clearly still smarts - and that is a long-held view of theirs, it appears.

I remember speaking to Ryan Moore ahead of the Betfair Royal Ascot preview, filmed in Dublin last June, just days after the horse's unlucky maiden debut defeat at the Curragh, and he said this was their Derby horse.

And the manner in which this impeccably bred son of Deep Impact and Rhododendron has gone on from then, recording three victories, including that uber-impressive win in the soon-not-to-be Vertem Futurity at Doncaster, indicated he could well be taking the Guineas en route to Epsom and Donny.

The betting tells you the same - he is currently trading at around 2/1 on the exchange for Saturday - but his stablemate, runaway Phoenix Stakes winner Little Big Bear, can boast marginally the better juvenile form and he could have something to say about that.

If he stays. He is 5/1+ on the exchange if you think he will.

Throw in the Dewhurst 1-2 Chaldean and Royal Scotsman, the likes of Sakheer -- all the above are 9/1 and less, win-only, in the exchange market - and you do find it hard to see an outsider spoiling the party.

And I couldn't see a betting angle at the top-end of the market.

However, that is certainly not the case with the 1,000 Guineas, which looks ripe for an upset.

Low prize money surprised me

Before I crack on, I just happened to note the winning prize money for the mile Classics when starting to write this and it surprised me.

A first-prize pot of £283,550 seems very low to me, but perhaps the riches that have been on offer in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Dubai, Australia and Hong Kong this year has distorted my thinking.

Order Of Australia copped £237k for winning a "local Group 2" at Doha in February for god's sake!

I am sure there are even more extreme samples, but it did hit home just what a hole UK racing is in on the prize money front.

Market leaders set standard but will they be primed?

Anyway, on to the 1.000 Guineas, and a brief note to say that I think we are looking at good to soft ground for the weekend, nothing worse (famous last words).

You don't need me to tell you that Group 1 winning juveniles Tahiyra and Meditate set quite a daunting standard for the others to reach on their juvenile form - maybe not doubtful stayer Lezoo, admittedly - but just how primed will they be?

It looks as though Dermot Weld has finally committed (ish) his filly to Newmarket now, but it has possibly all been a touch half-hearted from a trainer who hasn't saddled a winner since November (his horses were running well without winning in April to add a bit of balance).

Just how smooth the preparation of Meditate, runner-up to Tahiyra in Ireland and second to Lezoo in the Cheveley Park before proving a dominant winner at the Breeders' Cup, has been is also open to question.

She came back a "little sore" after a gallop at Tipperary in February, so they may have been playing catch-up with her.

100/1 selection should relish extra trip

I fully respect the claims of the trial winners Mammas Girl and Remarquee, as well as the three Godolphin fillies, but I have an inking this could be a 66/1 Billesdon Brook or 50/1 Homecoming Queen type of year.

I hope so anyway, as I am sticking up Embrace at 100/1 each-way, three places, with the Betfair Sportsbook. I presume she is an intended runner.

Back Embrace Each-Way, 3 Places, in Sunday's 1,000 Guineas

100/1

I appreciate we may get four or five places come the weekend , but I am happy to go each-way now given the price (the 100s is available In six places in the marketplace and she is currently trading at 130.0129/1 on the exchange).

Plenty, perhaps rightly, were getting carried away with the aforementioned Remarquee's Fred Darling win, but surely the neck runner-up Stenton Glider (48.047/1 on the exchange ) is ridiculously overpriced compared to her, and similarly so is the Newbury fourth, Embrace.

Embrace went into the Newbury trial on the back of a Wolverhampton novice win at two, so it is hardly surprising she went off at 16/1 (and at a Betfair SP of 24.61) but I thought she shaped very promisingly in being beaten just 4 ¼ lengths there, sandwiched in between much higher-rated fillies in Swingalong and Magic Sunset in third and fifth.

She travelled well in rear behind a wall of horses before Jim Crowley decided to come stands' side and that may have been a mistake in hindsight, but she still finished off her race well under tender handling, more than hinting that a step up to 1m would suit.

There is perhaps a shade more speed than stamina in her pedigree, but she is by Lope De Vega out of a Group 3-winning miler of William Haggas', but I have no doubts she will relish the extra furlong, And maybe the better ground, too, as it was heavy at Newbury.

Of course, she has a mountain to find on form, and could easily be outclassed - the bare form of the Fred Darling needs markedly improving on by all those re-opposing here - but I'll take my chances.

We are dealing with a filly with just three starts under her belt, after all - and the Newbury run was her first on turf, as well - and hopefully the Owen Burrows yard (who had their first winner since January last week, albeit a 1/12 poke) is ready to kick into gear. He can be a streaky trainer.

Good luck.

I'll be back later in the week as we have ITV Racing from Friday to Sunday.


Recommended bets

Back Embrace at 100/1 each-way, three places, with Betfair Sportsbook in Sunday's 1,000 Guineas.

ANTE-POST (April 16 onwards)

PROFIT AND LOSS: -1

Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

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