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Haggas can finally get off the mark with special sprinter
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Al Husn very underestimated in Yorkshire Oaks
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Orbaan and Dutch Decoy the pair to benefit from a pace collapse
13:50 York - Back Relief Rally @ BSP 2pt
Relief Rally - currently 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has drifted from opening odds of 7/42.75, which, in fairness, was too short, and this slight drift is nothing more than a market correction. I expect money to come for Aidan O'Brien's filly, so backing her at BSP might be the way to go.
William Haggas' filly has been almost foot-perfect in her short career to date, most recently blitzing a field, admittedly, with quantity over quality, in the Newbury Super Sprint. Still, she pulled miles clear of her group on the stand side and was at a pace disadvantage to those that raced the far.
She probably wasn't at home on the rain-softened ground either, so her performance deserves an upgrade, and her final two furlongs, which clocked the fastest of any by a clear margin, suggests this step up to six furlongs will see her improve further.
She is a very speedy filly, but every run and the reading of her sectionals and pedigree suggest moving up to six furlongs is the way to go, and she could be a real top-class sprinter.
In turn, I rate Cherry Blossom as her biggest threat, but one that will be seen to best effect over seven furlongs and further, and she might fall short of the turn of foot needed to cope with Relief Rally, mainly if she contributes to the pace.
The current 9/43.25 is fine, but I suspect we will get an BSP around 11/43.75 or 3/14.00.
15:00 York - Back Orbaan @ 16/117.00 1pt e/w and Dutch Decoy @ BSP 1pt win
There is so much pace on in this race that they are sure to come back to those that like to be ridden with restraint, and one horse I have had in mind for this contest for much of the season is Orbaan - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has been better than the bare result on many occasions this term.
He was in fine fettle this time last year, but this season's recent form figures don't tell the whole story, so he looks to have been missed by the market.
Last year, he was a huge eye-catcher in this race when a fast-finishing fourth behind stablemate Blue For You, who had first run after Jason Watson and Orbaan, had nowhere to go on the inside rail. In finishing strongly, he passed the progressive Northern Express, for whom he is now 12lbs better off and 14lbs better off with the winner Blue For You.
Four of the selection's five victories have come over today's distance of 1m, while the other over seven furlongs came at Ascot (very stiff seven).
Today sees him return to York for the first time since this race last year, and he left the impression at Sandown that a return to optimum form was on the horizon when doing well to finish within three lengths of the winner, having been held up off a steady pace.
Today's scenario of a big field and solid pace should suit him perfectly, and there will be little to no excuse, providing he gets a clear run at things today.
Back him at 12/113.00 or bigger.
The other I want on the side is Dutch Decoy - currently 9/110.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has been in fine form this season and could have done with a more aggressive ride in the closing stages in the Golden Mile at Goodwood when he looked to finish with running left having been ideally positioned.
Some will say that Oliver Stammers's back in the saddle is a negative, but he has ridden this one to good effect this season from off the pace and in the hope that connections revert to hold-up tactics from stall 15, he could get the pace collapse.
He had twice finished with a flurry this season at Sandown, including under Stammers, and his draw may leave him no option but to drop in. The handicapper has treated him very fairly, given he has been beaten less than four lengths in his last five starts, and he remains reasonably treated whilst being a steady improver this season.
Soft ground may have been against him at Goodwood, considering his record is 0-4, so it may have been an effort to upgrade and return to a faster surface for which he is 4-11, which is another positive.
I want to back him win-only, so use BSP.
15:35 York - Back Al Husn @ 6/17.00 1pt
It is a fascinating contest that will see favourite Savethelastdance encounter a fast surface, which is certainly not a positive despite her second-placed finish in the Epsom Oaks on similar ground - I remember how easily Soul Sister travelled all over her.
She was excellent in pulling the race out of the fire at the Curragh, but she may not get away with that in this company now, tackling her elders for the first time on a speed track like York.
It was disappointing that Bluestocking could not get the job done at the Curragh, having hit the front and traded at 1.11/10 and that run exposed her stamina to a degree.
Free Wind has excellent claims on her Hardwick fifth behind Pyledriver and her Group 2 victory here, with Stay Alert and Sea Silk Road back in fifth and sixth.
It would be no surprise to see her bounce out of an uncharacteristic poor performance at Goodwood now back on a sounder surface, and she is feared most, but Al Husn - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is the highest rated in this field and she is improving with each run.
She was well positioned to score in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last time, but she saw it out strongly and stuck her head down to battle on at the finish. That's a powerful form line in the context of this race, and in turn, she wasn't well positioned at Newcastle off a slow pace when Nashwa was able to dictate and get the first run while she saw a denied passage and still was able to mow her down at the finish.
You could argue Nashwa wasn't at her best when tackling the all-weather surface for the first time at Newcastle or when making the running. Still, she couldn't have had things anymore her way, and the very top-class horses should be versatile while form was boosted by the third, One For Bobby, who she had beaten in last year's Nassau Stakes.
One For Bobby landed a Group 3 in France next time over Bolthole (subsequently 3/4 length second to Place Du Carrousel, who previously beat Nashwa 3/4 of a length in the Prix de l'Opera Longines) to give the form a solid look, and Nashwa won the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes before finishing runner-up in yesterday's Juddmonte International.
Al Husn has an excellent attitude and is improving at a rate of knots this season, building on her promise as a two and three-year-old. And her pedigree suggests the best is yet to come, moving up to 1m4f for the first time.
She continues to be underestimated in the market but is only one of two Group 1 winners in the contest (the other favourite, Savethelastdance). Her only defeat since 2021 has come at the hands of an on-song Via Sistina on the back of her most extended break to date when making her seasonal return at Newmarket - a track, despite winning twice at, I am not sure she is in love with.
She will relish this York flat track, and a quicker surface will benefit her, having scored in comfortable style on both occasions outside of her debut on a sounder surface and the first of those, the times suggested the ground was much quicker than the going description of "good".
There's plenty to like about the progressive four-year-old, and I'd have her vying for favouritism in this contest at 3/14.00, so while the Sportsbook is ducking her a little, she still makes an appeal at the 6/17.00 on offer. I clarify that Free Wind is the filly I fear most, perhaps suggesting the forecast wouldn't be out of turn.
YORK EBOR FESTIVAL DAY 2 SUPERBOOST
Back Ryan Moore to ride a winner from one of his six rides - was 4/11 - now 1/12.00!
*Max £10
Recommended bets
Back Relief Rally to win the 13:50 at York @ BSP 2pt
Back Orbaan to win the 15:00 at York @ 16/117.00 1pt e/w 6 places
DARYL'S P/L
Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update Sept 1st
Advised Stakes = +66.02pts ROI 8.23%
SP = -38.6pts ROI -4%
BSP = +100.2pts ROI +12.49%