Daryl Carter's Tips: Lucander 20/1 is one of the days best bets

• Daryl says Kinross is the form horse in the July Cup

• Lucander 20/121.00 is overpriced with conditions to suit

• Takes a 50/151.00 punt with Dawn Of Liberation

14:00 York - Back Isla Kai @ 10/111.00 1pt

A good opening contest and a few course regulars return to the ring, but Isla Kai - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is overpriced and appeals most with conditions set to be in his favour.

Nigel Tinkler's runner could only manage fourth in this race last year on good to firm ground, but it was an excellent run considering his best performances have come when soft has been in the going description.

He is now 11 and 12 pounds better off with the Blue For You and Eilean Dubh, who finished two lengths ahead of him when he went off a strong 2/13.00 favourite for this in 2022, and it was a step back in the right direction on the all-weather at Newcastle last time.

His record with soft in the going reads 131111, with RPR ratings of 93, 95, 98, 94 and 100, most recently at Ripon when scoring from the widest stall in gate 12 despite being hassled for the lead. Those ratings suggest he is a solid performer once the ground gets even a little testing, and with the ground already good to soft and further rain due on Saturday, he will surely have optimum conditions.

He has run very creditably on the Knavesmire despite three of his last four runs seeing him drawn in the car park in stalls 17 of 20, 18 of 18 and 15 of 15, and his run in this race last year saw him birthed far better in stall one.

He is in stall nine of 12 today, but there shouldn't be too much competition for the lead, and Rowan Scott is back in the saddle. Back him no shorter than 8/19.00.

14:50 Newmarket - Back Tafreej @ 4/15.00 1.5pt

Tafreej - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has his best days ahead of him judged on his effortless win at Yarmouth last time, and although he was entitled to win as he did, it was by far a career-best performance.

The return to the Yarmouth track that saw him a winner as a two-year-old had a part to play in his victory, but in line with his pedigree, the move up in distance played a substantial role.

He had been threatening to perform like that in three previous outings, including when catching the eye from the wrong side of the track at Newbury on the seasonal return on soft ground before getting stuck in a pocket at Goodwood next time over the shorter trip of seven furlongs. To be fair, he took a while to get going there, but it was just another example of his race-by-race progression.

His latest outing saw him continuously denied a clear run at the tight-turning track at Chester - a course that never played against his strengths; having mentioned above, he takes a moment to get going.

Still, it was a solid finishing effort from him there despite not handling the final bend, and he looks to be coming to hand at the right time.

Tafreej has gone up six pounds for his Yarmouth romp, but the booking of the excellent Adam Farragher sees him negotiate three of that, so there's undoubtedly scope in this rating given his "race-by-race progression" this season. He makes plenty of appeal here ahead of the useful Quantum Impact. Back him no shorter than 3/14.00.

15:10 York - Back Dawn Of Liberation @ 50/151.00 0.5pt e/w

It takes a huge leap of faith to back Dawn Of Liberation - 50/151.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - after his lacklustre run at Ascot, but he is better than we have seen thus far this season, evident by his running on fourth at Chester in May when failing to handle the tight bends.

This race has a habit of throwing up big-priced winners, and while that's no reason to back him, perhaps the return to York is.

He ran a blinder in his Maiden contest here when looking for a stiffer test over seven furlongs when chasing home the smart Hoo Ya Mal.

Before his Ascot run, my theory was that he needed a flat track, hated Newmarket and wanted ten furlongs. I still believe in that theory, and there's no better place to test it than York as he moves up in distance.

It won't be an excuse despite having not raced on ground softer than good; this is his final chance. Back him at 33/134.00 or bigger for small stakes each way with six places on the Betfair Sportsbook.

16:05 Ascot - Back Lucander @ 20/121.00 1pt e/w

With the ground turning soft at Ascot, very few of these will handle conditions if history is anything to go by. Although there are stacks of promise in favourite La Yakel - who I followed for much of last season - he is making his seasonal return, so he could easily prove vulnerable.

The horse that looks extremely overpriced is the six-year-old Lucander - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was far from disgraced at Ascot last time in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes off of a big weight when not getting a clear run at things.

He shaped well at Epsom on his previous start despite the race not being run to suit his hold-up style of running, and he will handle today's soft ground far better than most, having recorded two of his seven wins on soft ground.

Couple that fact with his consistent RPRs this season means he is highly likely to give his running - which is more than can be said for most of these - he looks overpriced. Back him no shorter than 10/111.00.

16:27 Chester - Back Holguin @ 9/43.25 1pt win

Holguin - 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has an excellent opportunity to return to the winner's enclosure. Finally dropped in grade from a good draw in stall two under David Probert, he will prove challenging to peg back on the front end.

He showed plenty of dash as a two-year-old, so this sharp speed favouring track should see him in the best light, and the return to an easier surface is another positive stacked in his favour.

A repeat of his excellent second at Haydock when narrowly touched off by the useful Angel Bleu when denied a clear run, and this track will suit better than the stiff seven at Ascot when running better than his finishing position suggests.

He is well-found in the market, and rightly so, given the classy Brad The Brief has questions to answer over this distance, and Witch Hunter looked like he was feeling the effects of a very productive season at Newcastle.

Mount Athos is interesting with Franny Norton booked and will likely keep the company up front along with He's A Monster, but they have a tough ask at the weights. Back him no shorter than the current 9/43.25.

16:35 Newmarket - Back Kinross @ 11/43.75 1pt win

Kinross - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is the form horse in the race, and he made a very encouraging return to action when five lengths off the winner in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He went off at an SP of 6/17.00 for that contest despite connections making it clear that the July Cup was his intended target and the ground was much too quick for him while he was only passed late on by winner Khaadem once eased off by Frankie Dettori.

That run aside, his last outing over six furlongs was his Group 1 Champion Sprint Stakes victory at Ascot, and before that, a fourth in the 2022 Platinum Jubilee, but again on ground faster than he wanted (Good to firm).

In 2021, he was a considerable eye-catcher in the Champion Sprint Stakes when he was continuously denied a clear run and finished on the bridle.

He holds top-class form from last season, particularly when tackling ground with soft in-the-going description with form figures of 111911 in the previous three years in Britain.

He makes plenty of appeal here, even at his reduced price since writing this column. I want to be against the Commonwealth Cup form, and Azure Blue may want the ground on the quicker side, but she is an ever-present danger.

Vadream is not out of this, and neither is Run To Freedom at big odds but an on-song Kinross will prove challenging to beat with a sound clip to aim at courtesy of Art Power, Little Big Bear and Shaquille (should he break on terms). Back him no shorter than 5/23.50.