Daryl Carter's Tips: De Vega 3/1 to dominate at Musselburgh

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Daryl Carter has three tips for Wednesday's racing.

Daryl Carter has three tips on Wednesday, and his NAP is a recent column winner that can back up by dominating his rivals at Musselburgh...

  • Three Wednesday tips from Daryl Carter

  • Daryl hopes a recent column winner can go back-to-back at Musselburgh

  • Says Calvert can make it second time lucky at Kempton


14:40 Catterick - Back Glory Fighter @ 6/17.00 1pt

Glory Fighter - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is, as many of these are, an exposed older sprinter, but when given his conditions, he is still more than capable of putting on a show. He is drawn well for his prominent racing tactics today in stall three and returns to the scene of his last victory.

He boasts form figures here at Catterick over five furlongs of 123, and the narrow defeats came as a favourite in a Class 4 event last May and the other in a strong Class 2 contest.

Interestingly, his latest success came in first-time cheek-pieces back in June. Connections removed that headgear at Thirsk last time, but he did well to finish a two-length fourth, having been poorly drawn against the bias, and now they reapply that headgear.

He is on a workable rating on balance, and his victory earlier this year married up very well on the clock with a race later on the card won by a two-year-old debutant now rated 85.

He has optimum conditions at a track he likes and is handicapped to have a decisive say in proceedings. Sacred Jewel is the other interesting runner, given her unexposed profile, but she will need to have benefitted from her three-month break and leave her two runs this season well behind her to figure.

Glory Fighter has solid claims in this contest; anything 5/16.00 or bigger is acceptable.

Back Glory Fighter @ 6/17.00

Bet now

15:00 Musselburgh - Back Love De Vega @ 3/14.00 1.5pt (NAP)

There's an excellent case to be made that this track doesn't suit the hold-up style of running that sees Abduction to best effect, and his 0-7 record at this venue may back that up. Still, he has been better than the bare result on many occasions here, including at the back end of last season in October, so he is not taken on lightly but is overbet naturally on his effort at Ayr.

He has had Love De Vega - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - in behind before at his beloved Ayr, where his form figures read 6111, but unlike his latest start, this race will not be set up for his typical come-from-off-the-pace style.

Instead, we might see that Love De Vega gets a complete solo on the front end from a good draw in stall two, and that will allow Ben Curtis - who has an excellent record on this horse - to get away and dominate from the off.

The selection took advantage of a drop in grade last time at Hamilton and a return to six furlongs to get off the mark. Still, he is effective at this trip, and this is a sharp seven, and with the opportunity to dominate, he will prove hard to catch it what could turn into a speed contest.

There's still mileage in his rating of 80 on the evidence of his previous form, and he is ten pounds better off with Abduction for their meeting at Ayr last September.

On A Session was highly disappointing for this column in July, and he looks to be on a steady decline, while Judgment Call and Manigordo are of a level and don't look ahead of the handicapper.

This rates a good opportunity for the Johnston runner to record back-to-back victories, providing they can get the tactics right, and having shown an excellent head carriage and attitude at Hamilton, he could quickly rack up a sequence.

Back him at 11/43.75 or bigger.

Back Love De Vega @ 3/14.00

Bet now

18:00 Kempton - Back Calvert @ 15/82.88 1pt win

This looks like a fantastic opportunity for Roger Teal's Calvert - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - to get off the market at the second attempt, having offered plenty to work on at Windsor last time and his main rival, Alnoory, was behind him on that occasion with little excuse.

One of the most irrelevant things mentioned in horse racing is the effect of one or two-pound differences in the weights. It drives me insane and is unrelated to a horse's winning chance, so I won't even acknowledge that he is one pound better off with the rival mentioned above, ops.

The switch to the all-weather is a more critical factor for the son of Golden Horn, who could improve for this surface as his brother Defined and his dam Criteria did - both scorers at this venue - while Golden Horn progeny have a healthy 17% strike rate on the artificial surface.

Calvert's debut saw him travel strongly, and he was last off the bridle when an unfancied 40/141.00 chance but was denied a clear run at a crucial stage and was poorly positioned in a race that turned into a dash down the home straight.

He should improve his fitness and experience, and he won't find many better opportunities than this to get off the mark. Local Hero is bred to be speedy and an interesting newcomer, while Rich Harry has stamina to prove at this distance and may be searching for a handicap rating.

Back the selection at 13/82.63 or bigger.

Back Calvert @ 15/82.88

Bet now

Recommended bets

Back Glory Fighter to win the 14:40 at Catterick @ 6/17.00 1pt win

Back Love De Vega to win the 15:00 at Musselburgh @ 3/14.00 1.5pt win

Back Calvert to win the 18:00 at Kempton @ 15/82.88 1pt win

DARYL'S P/L

Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update Sept 1st

Advised Stakes = +66.02pts ROI 8.23%

SP = -38.6pts ROI -4%

BSP = +100.2pts ROI +12.49%

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