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25/126.00 Fil Dor holds excellent claims in soft Grade 1
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Tullyhill worth forgiving Cheltenham flop
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Daddy Longlegs must be well handicapped
Rachael Blackmore Superboost
Day one of the 2024 Punchestown Festival offers a superb card, and today we are boosting Rachael Blackmore on board Cheltenham Festival winner Slade Steel!
You can back Rachael and Slade Steel to finish in the top 2 in the 15:40 at Punchestown at the Superboost price of 1/12.00! (was 8/131.61).
15:40 Punchestown - Back Tullyhill @ 13/27.50 0.5pt e/w
Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Slade Steel was a worthy contest winner and hit the line with a fair bit in hand over Mystical Power, who has since confirmed the form with Firefox at Aintree.
The Henry De Bromhead runner is the clear form pick in this race. He has found only Ballyburn to be too good since going over hurdles, and he has had the Albert Bartlett and Martin Pipe winners behind on his journey. The fact that he skipped Aintree for this, his next target, and he comes here fresher than two of his four Supreme Novice Hurdle rivals is a positive in his favour. There will be an argument that the quicker ground and this sharper track may be against him, but it's tough to see him not involved if Rachael Blackmore keeps her mount handy.
It's a surprise that Mystical Power is out again so quickly, having won 18 days ago over Firefox. He is a horse that has done us a good turn this season, but he only tends to do a little once he hits the front. Mystical Power will be fascinating again once the hood is removed and will be positioned behind the selection, no doubt, with a plan to pounce late and use his smart turn of foot. He is a big danger to all, but he didn't have to improve to win at Aintree, and if it comes down to a battle on the final flight, I wouldn't be confident he would win.
Firefox keeps falling a shade short of this level, and I expect a change of tactics today. Even then, he has plenty to find on the bare form of the Supreme Novice Hurdle run with Slade Steel.
Slade Steel is the correct favourite, but this track does have its worries for him.
Perhaps there is a case to be made for Tullyhill - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who disappointed at Cheltenham finishing eighth behind Slade Steel, Mystical Power and Firefox but had previously looked firmly on the up before that and the weight of money behind him sent him off favourite for the Festival opener.
At the time, one concern for his chances was the quick turnaround, having won here at Punchestown just three weeks earlier with a strong time figure in deep ground. He travelled as well as anything at Cheltenham before stopping alarmingly quickly, and the comments of his rider Paul Townend of "he wasn't himself going down to the start" and that he "wasn't happy with him from halfway" may be a reason to forgive that effort.
Willie Mullins doesn't typically throw horses into the Supreme Novice with that quick of a turnaround, and with one he did, Cilaos Emery, he rejuvenated him to strike here in this race, reversing from a stablemate that finished ahead of him at the festival.
The yard holds Tullyhill in high regard, throwing him into the Grade 1 Bumper at this meeting last year when an excellent second to A Dream To Share. He was on an upward curve before Cheltenham. If that run came too quickly for him, he could be a major player in this contest, considering there was minimal ground separating those first five in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the final flight.
He will be well positioned to strike under Paul Townend, who keeps the faith with him, and this track plays to front-runners strengths.
Mystical Power and Firefox had hard races at Aintree just 18 days ago, and going from Cheltenham to Aintree to Punchestown is no easy feat. The selection offers some each-way value, knowing he will set the fractions.
The forecast quicker ground is no concern given his effort at this meeting last term, and now freshened up, he is worth chancing. After all, he was considered the yard-leading hope in the Novice Hurdle division with Grade 1 aspirations this season, so it's wise to expect a big effort.
16:15 Punchestown - Back Daddy Long Legs @ 4/15.00 1pt
Willie Mullins Daddy Long Legs - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has been priced defensively and for good reason, having shown his well-being by winning a run-of-the-mill contest at Ludlow last time, bouncing back from poor efforts in Grade 1 company.
Still, the fact that he was thought so highly enough to be tried at the top level means he must be of interest dropped into a handicap off this fair rating of 135. He was all the rage in the Triumph Hurdle market for the 2022/23 season before being allowed time to settle in at the Mullins yard, having had just one start on the flat in France. He was picked up for a hefty €210,000 and made an effortless winning debut at Thurles in November.
The form of this Maiden suggests this mark of 135 should be well within reach. The runner-up was point-to-point winner Cleatus Poolaw - now rated 134. The third, Irish Panther, was previously second to the useful Farren Glory - who won the Grade 1 Royal Bond - and Irish Panther did make Ballyburn work hard in a bumper contest at Punchestown back in February and finished ahead of the likes of Lecky Watson at the same venue in April. The fourth, Farmers Lodge, is rated 130, and the fifth has substance to its form also.
He is a risky proposition to be ultra-confident about. Still, one suspect's connections thought he would be a Supreme Novice candidate, not running in a valuable handicap off of a rating of 135. He is entirely unexposed and worth chancing at 4/15.00 or bigger.
17:25 Punchestown - Back Fil Dor @ 25/126.00 1pt e/w (NAP)
Dinoblue has done little wrong this season, wracking up two victories, including a Grade 1, and two excellent second-place efforts, including behind the smart El Fabiolo in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase when the winner was at the peak of his powers.
The Dublin Chase runner-up effort saw Captain Guinness well back in third, although she was no match for the winner. Mark Walsh gave her too much of a waiting ride at Cheltenham when they stepped up in trip and got touched off over 2m4f in the Mares Chase. That race never looked like the correct option for her as she looked all speedy.
The move back to 2m is a big positive, and she scored at this venue last season as the dominant winner of a handicap off 147. A repeat of that will not be good enough, but either of her runs this season should put her firmly in a position to land this event, given her form has been replicated even in her absence (Champion Chase distances).
Captain Guinness is not one to be relied upon and picked up a good opportunity in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, fighting off Gentleman De Mee. However, that's no more than you would have expected Dinoblue to do had she been in that race, and the mare is far more reliable.
Banbridge is interesting back on a sounder surface, but it's hard to know what to do with him, as Grade 1 winners should be able to handle the odd shower here and there. His jumping has been up to scratch this term, and connections mulled over, going up to 3m with him after Ascot not returning to this minimum distance. At the same time, the cheekpieces are a strange move, but he could have go well.
Saint Sam, Dysart Dynamo and Ash Tree Meadow should find this level too hot to handle.
The value in the race may lay with Fil Dor - 25/126.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who needs forgiving two runs over 2 1/2 miles on deep ground at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse. Still, connections left off his usually worn tongue tie last time when he never got put into the race (won by owner mate), and he looked like a non-stayer in the Ryanair Chase. The latest was surely a prep run for this contest.
A return to 2m is a positive on his two runs earlier this season when pushing Dinoblue all out at Naas when having to come from well off an ordinary gallop and then chasing home El Fabiolo making him work harder than the mare did when second at Cork put him in with a fair shout. Those efforts make his winning price of 25/126.00 look very big, and I would be hopeful of a return to more prominent tactics for which his best efforts have come.
He is still very lightly raced over fences, and he should have been a Grade 1 winner as a Novice last term when a shuddering blunder saw him respond tremendously to pressure only to fold late on when odds-on to win the Racing Post App, Novice Chase. It may be worth forgiving his only other run-over fences that followed when tried in cheekpieces (tailed off after two fences) in the Irish Arkle. His two efforts this term over 2m have been commendable, and with the tongue-tie back on today and reverting to his optimal distance, he can make his presence felt.
Back Fil Dor at 14/115.00 or bigger.
18:00 Punchestown - Back Monty's Star @ 5/23.50 1.5pt
The one of these that has improved the most from last season's hurdle campaign is undoubtedly Monty's Star - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and he looks to have a bigger performance in him after just three outings over fences and arrives here firmly on an upward curve while today offers the opportunity for him to claim a fairly soft Grade 1.
I wasn't overly impressed with him when behind Corbetts Cross at Fairyhouse on his seasonal/chase debut. Still, he improved significantly to reverse the form with Three Card Brag here at Punchestown before running another career-best at Cheltenham behind Fact To File.
He was worth a small upgrade in the Brown Advisory, having been posted widest of all for much of the race, and I am not convinced that track sees him to the best effect. He is a dour stayer and will have no issues with a drier surface. He ticks plenty of boxes, particularly as the two heading up the rest of the market have a bit to prove. Spillane's Tower has looked like a mud-lark; his form needs work, and his stamina needs to be confirmed, while there will be no hiding place for him in this field.
I am not a fan of Embassy Gardens, having done his figures last year over hurdles and seen him overhyped. However, he has improved for fences this term, including a dominant victory at this venue, and Paul Townend back in the saddle is certainly an upgrade.
The selection should be the clear favourite, and 5/23.50 or bigger is good value.
Now Read: 2,000 Guineas Runner-by-Runner Guide: O'Brien's City of Troy will stand tall
Recommended bets
Back Tullyhill to win the 15:40 at Punchestown @ 13/27.50 0.5pt e/w
Back Daddy Long Legs to win the 16:15 at Punchestown @ 4/15.00 1pt win
Back Fil Dor to win the 17:25 at Punchestown @ 25/126.00 1pt e/w
Back Monty's Star to win the 18:00 at Punchestown @ 5/23.50 1.5pt win
DARYL'S P/L
2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 1st
2024 P/L = +62.87 ROI 24.51%
BSP P/L = +51.2 ROI 19.94%
2024 P/L Ante-post = +8
DARYL'S P/L HISTORY
2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI
2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI
2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI
2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%