Daryl Carter's Tips: 10/1 King can reign returned to his favoured Kempton

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Daryl Carter looks to Kempton's 19:00 for his only bet of the day.

Daryl Carter heads to Kempton for his sole bet of the day and looks to an overpriced handicapper at his favoured venue...


It's a very tricky day on Wednesday. I struggled to get enthused by the racing at Catterick, which is subject to a morning inspection. I don't mind admitting that Class 6 sprint action at Catterick isn't my forte.

I quickly headed over to Kempton.

I am very keen to keep a close eye on the 18:00 Fillies' Novice Stakes. The John And Thady Gosden runner, Juneberry, looked like a sure-fire improver at Lingfield as a two-year-old, and she could be pretty useful this season. However, Winter Snowfall represents another powerful pair, William Buick and Charlie Appleby, and there's early money for her.

They won this last year with the smart Sapphire Seas, who went on to be rated 104. This one is a half-sister to Dancing Goddess, whom the yard sent out to this venue in 2022 to make a winning debut, so they must be taken seriously.

Still, there was no bet; only one race piqued my interest...


19:00 Kempton - Back King Cabo @ 10/111.00 0.5pt e/w

I was a big fan of Hickory last season, but he became frustrating to back. Still, he has sound claims here. He goes without the visor, but I didn't think he needed it last term, and I am not sure that contributed to his good efforts, but rather the scenarios he found himself in.

Saffie Osborne in the saddle is a positive for James Fanshawe. She has only been booked three times in the last five years to no avail, but two of those were on this lad, and they resulted in a second in the Moet And Chandon and a third in a highly competitive Ascot contest in September behind the smart Quinault.

Both of those efforts are easily the most potent form in this race. He has proven to go well fresh, has won two of his three starts here, and has now eased into a Class 3.

Those are big positives for him. However, my only concern is that it would seem a waste of a rating to have him fully wound up for this 7k pot after he went so close in some of last season's biggest handicaps.

Perhaps that's me overthinking things, but I would almost certainly be looking to handicap him for June if he were mine. Still, a horse with this profile would typically be a more substantial bet, but I was firmly expecting him to be around the 7/24.50 mark with a view to backing him at 3/14.00 or bigger.

However, the Sportsbook want to keep him on the side and has gone very short 9/43.25. That is a price I can leave alone with this reasonably competitive.

Zero Carbon has an outstanding AW record, finishing first or second in six of his nine starts, including two victories at Kempton. He might need the run, and stalling eight of nine is a tough draw in this company.

Revolutionise always seems to run well and can never be discounted.

At the same time, Follow Your Heart appears in many course and distance form lines when searching and is a solid marker.

He was worth an upgrade on his Wolverhampton effort last time, having had an outside draw to negotiate, being forced wide for much of the race, and running to free after being hustled up early in an attempt to gain a position.

He looks overpriced on his Kempton form, in which his last visit saw him have Caragio and Zero Carbon behind, and his penultimate effort saw him only narrowly held by Caragio and Oisin Murphy, having had to wait for room.

That, in turn, brings King Cabo - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - into contention, who had Follow Your Heart back in third when an even money favourite here in September and is drawn well in stall one and may get the run of the race.

King Cabo is now 12 pounds better off at the weights, with Follow Your Heart moving back up to a more suitable trip of seven furlongs for the first time this season. He has form figures of 1249153 at this venue in his career (and the form is better than they initially view). On the AW, his record over this trip reads 1253. The fifth was a seasonal return run in 2022, the third was his debut, and the second was the narrowest of defeats.

Seven furlongs is undoubtedly his optimal distance, with career form figures reading 12631253, and he is handicapped to have a say, thanks to the claim of Ethan Jones.

Furthermore, his Newbury form, when a narrow third to Flying Secret and Popmaster, is up there with the best in this field.

Perhaps the combination of the move back up in distance, the return to Kempton, and the ideal draw in a race he may be able to dominate can see him return to the progressive form he showed last season. He looks worth a small each-way play.

Kiwano, if, and it is an if, on a going day, has more to offer. He either runs exceptionally well or folds tamely. Stall four is a good draw, and the move up in distance should be no issue based on his dominant victory over six furlongs here in January 2023. However, he is untrustworthy.

The selection appeals at 10/111.00 or bigger.

19:00 Kempton - Back King Cabo @ 10/111.00

Bet Here

Now read: Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Grand National 2024: Tips, Odds and Predictions


Recommended bets

Back King Cabo to win the 19:00 at Kempton @ 10/111.00 0.5pt e/w

DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 1st

2024 P/L = +62.87 ROI 24.51%

BSP P/L = +51.2 ROI 19.94%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +8

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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