Cheltenham Festival Focus: Double down on 7/2 team captain for Brown Advisory

• Back Ballyburn again for Browns

• East India Dock should be the Triumph Hurdle favourite

• Maughreen gets the nod before hurdle debut

• Our Cheltenham offer is live! Get a completely free bet every weekend until the Festival

In week 14 of the Cheltenham Focus column, Daryl Carter rounds up the week, focusing on the Juvenile Hurdle division, where he highly praises East India Dock's Cheltenham performance. He also highlights handicappers that caught the eye, including Unexpected Party, who will be primed for another Grand Annual tilt and last week's Ultima selection that caught the eye.

Daryl says it will be "madness" if Willie Mullins skips Cheltenham for Aintree with the classy Anzadam, as he would have him over Lossiemouth and doubles down with an existing ante-post selection.

Unexpected Party primed for another tilt at the Grand Annual

On Sunday, 19th Jan at Windsor, Jinko Blue landed the three-runner Hampton Novices Grade 2 Chase. This was slowly run as expected with the small field, and the winner was fortunate to score with a lousy blunder from the runner-up, Lowry's Bar, handing him the race at the third last. Jinko Blue didn't impress me with his jumping throughout and took advantage of a good opportunity here. As for the festival, it's a no from me, but the runner-up could head to the Ultima Handicap 14/115.00 but only looks averagely treated on this evidence from a rating of 144.

Johnnywho, third, was beaten 27 lengths, but he was only three lengths down at last before being eased right down. He is undoubtedly lined up for something like the Kim Muir 10/111.00, and he has now had his final qualifying run to enter handicaps.

Sticking with Windsor on Sunday, Jubilee Alpha won the Mares' Novices Hurdle and was cut into 8/19.00. This was a good performance, but I'd be surprised if she was up to the task of the festival race. The big eye-catcher was Nicky Henderson's third Khrisma, who was given a sympathetic ride by Nico De Boinville on her British debut. She will improve a good deal for the run and could be a player in March, but she is priced accordingly at 12/113.00. The level of this race was around the mid-120s mark, not typically good enough for a festival victory.

Matata and Protektorat were two other eye-catchers on the Windsor card with potential festival chances. The former slammed home in a handicap from a rating of 155 and was given a whopping RPR of 166. That seems extremely high, and the form should not be relied upon. The runner-up, Unexpected Party, was only nursed into this race, and he looks like a massive player for a repeat in the Grand Annual 14/115.00, which has been his target all season.

He was the horse to take from the race, having gone with plenty of zest and tucked in behind the field with no interest in winning this race, to say it bluntly. Should he line up, he will be five pounds better off with last year's runner-up and Grand Annual favourite, Libberty Hunter, who heads this market.

Protektorat was another wide-margin winner at a venue where front-runners seem to hold a decisive advantage on the limited evidence. He is now 10/111.00 to repeat his victory in the Ryanair, which looks rather significant, and he is peaking at the correct time, but age looks his biggest stumbling block right now. Dan Skelton has his older horses ready to peak in March.

Rocky's Diamond threw his hat into the  Stayers Hurdle 16/117.00picture at Thurles on Thursday with a Galmoy Hurdle victory. Only nine lengths third to Home By The Lee in December, he took a step forward to score here, and one would be forgiven for thinking he is highly progressive. Still, this was very slowly run, and he was well positioned towards the fore. The sedate pace wouldn't have suited those held up at the rear of the field, so this is one to be cautious of.

Quai De Bourbon was on many punters' lists for staying handicaps at this year's festival. Still, he will need another run to qualify for the National Hunt Chase and finish in the first three over three miles. The same applies to runner-up Chapeau De Soleil. Both are smart novices, but they don't have many options and time is running out.

All hyped up on price?

The previous year's German Derby winner, who fetched 1,400,000euros in October, Palladium, had a lot of hype surrounding his hurdling debut, and this was only ok. The four-year-old ran out a comfortable winner but received 13lbs from the runner-up, who briefly put it up to him. There was nothing special about this performance where the time figure was ok, but the form was average. If he hadn't had the media attention around his purchase price, would we be talking about him following this? I doubt it. He is an unappealing 16/117.00 for the Triumph Hurdle.

Diva Luna was beaten at 2/91.22 at Sandown on Friday and had no excuses. She now looks a million miles from being a Mares Novice Hurdle winner (out to 20/121.00), and even for her biggest fans, this will be hard to forgive.

On Saturday at Fairyhouse, Kawaboomga did Kopek Des Bordes backers a good turn by boosting the form, winning a strong Maiden Hurdle and scalping William Munny. Unusually for Ireland, this was a very well-run race, and the winner was comfortably on top at the line. He looks promising, and the Turners 14/115.00 is a realistic option following this effort.

William Munny did most of the heavy lifting, setting a good, strong end-to-end gallop, but he had no answers at the finish. William Munny had been second to Workahead at Leopardstown on the same card at Kopek Des Bordes, and the speed figures from those two races now look reliable. Those Leopardstown winners can seriously be considered for Cheltenham novice hurdle races.

Cheltenham Trials Day - East India Dock is so fast

The Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase has a good record of producing festival winners. Still, amongst the changes at the festival this year, it may not be a reliable source for winners, with both the victor, Jagwar, and runner-up, Billytherealbigred, heading to the 2m4f Novices Handicap, which will indeed feature a future Grade 1 contender from across the sea. It was a good performance from the winner, but I wouldn't rush to grab the 6/17.00.

A big eye-catcher at the Trials meeting was our Ultima Handicap selection Iroko - now 8/19.00. He was given a considerate ride, so much so that the stewards looked into it. Immediately taken back at the off, he cruised through this well-run race and would rate handicap NAP material if turning up on the festival's first day over his optimum trip of 3m.

A very impressive East India Dock won the JCB Triumph Trial in an excellent time, and this performance excited me. I've been lukewarm on this horse since his debut, but this was the perfect performance and an excellent trial. He jumps immaculately and is very quick from A to B. He set a strong gallop from the front and quickened away like a smart horse.

From the first hurdle to the line, he recorded a circuit time of 4.02.90, nearly ten seconds quicker than Constitution Hill. Before anyone gets overexcited, Constitution Hill's victory in the Unibet Hurdle is no comparison, given it was a piece of work for the Champion Hurdler.

However, East India Dock was 6.57 seconds ahead of that field at the fourth hurdle and 8.31 seconds ahead by the time they reached three out to emphasise the strong gallop. East India docks circuit time also bettered Sixmilebridge's Grade 2 Hurdle victory by six seconds or 24 lengths. From two out to the line, East India Dock recorded 59.32 to Sixmilebridge's 1.03.13 and Constitution Hills (again, a pinch of salt here) 58.87.

The wise thing to do is to remove Constitution Hill entirely from the equation, and by doing so, East India Dock's performance is easily the best on the card. Based on this evidence, he is undoubtedly a 140-rated horse. In the juvenile division, that rating is almost good enough to land a typical renewal, and he is the fastest horse in the field at the time of writing and is now 3/14.00 for the Triumph Hurdle.

Constitution Hill looked back to his old self as he blasted away the useful 146-rated Brentford Hope in the International Hurdle, making him look very ordinary. He seems primed for a big performance in March, and 4/51.80 is fair. He could shorten further following next week's Dublin Racing Festival where Lossiemouth and Stateman will be in action.

The Stayers Hurdle division continues to look weak after Strong Leader and Crambo finished outside the top three in the Cleeve Hurdle. Solid 145-rated handicapper Gowel Road landed the race, having previously been behind Lucky Place at the same venue on New Year's Day. This is a poor division, and the Brits are not surpassing the 150 mark, so none of these are of interest in March.

I'd love to see Anzadam take on Con Hill

On Sunday, our Champion Hurdle selection, Anzadam now 10/111.00, had nothing more than a piece of work to land the Limestone Lad Grade 3 at Naas. We learned very little, but he has shown his well-being, and I think he could be a serious player in March.

The cry from the Twittersphere was, "He has no chance in a Champion Hurdle, having beaten an 11-year-old stayer in Beacon Edge." It's funny, as when Lossiemouth did the same at Fairyhouse, she was a "Champion Hurdle cert." That social channel does make me laugh.

One thing we know from the sectional data from Fairyhouse is that Anzadam is a speedy horse, and I'd have him over Lossiemouth any day of the week. However, I had concerns when Willie Mullins was apparently said to be considering Aintree for this horse. That would surely be madness.

On Sunday at Naas, Dancing City scored in the Grade 3 Novice Chase over Bioluminescence and Good Land. He is a good horse and a stout stayer, but he is so slow, and I'd be amazed if he had the pace for the Old course. For those backing him, I would remind you that Paul Townend will likely choose Ballyburn in the Brown Advisory 4/15.00.

The runner-up Bioluminescence did her Mares Chase claims no harm at all, and 6/17.00 is starting to look very appealing.

Market Movers

What's on this week

The highly anticipated hurdling debut of Mares Novice Hurdle favourite Maurgheen comes at Punchestown on Monday.

Looking to the weekend, there's Grade 1 action at Sandown with the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase before the outstanding action on Saturday and Sunday at Leopardstown for the Dublin Racing Festival.

Double down with Ballyburn for the Brown Advisory @ 7/24.50 1pt

It's time to double down with Ballyburn for the Brown Advisory at a very generous 7/24.50 before the Dublin Racing Festival. He is the horse in the ante-post markets that offers outstanding value. Had Willie Mullins confirmed his target as the Brown Advisory (which this column predicted) at the start of the season, he would likely be 7/42.75 chance for this race despite his defeat to Sir Gino as the trip would have been a valid excuse.

Ballyburn improved at Kempton and enhanced his reputation, having jumped well at high speed under circumstances that would never have seen him to his best effect. It's always worth asking yourself how the likes of Dancing City would have faired at Kempton given that task.

However, the markets love an unbeaten horse, so he is not the "flavour of the month" at the moment, but time will show he had an impossible task against Sir Gino.

There are plenty of positives for Ballyburn. His return to a left-handed track, his dominant win of the Gallagher's Novice Hurdle last term, and his unexposed stamina will be a significant asset.

He is one of a handful of horses that could quickly go very short should he score at the DRF, and now is the time to back him again. He is one of the only horses ante-post I want to keep getting stuck into.

Back Maughreen to win the Mares Novice Hurdle @ 5/16.00 1pt

I was so impressed with Maughreen's bumper victory at Punchestown 378 days ago that I can't leave her off this list now she holds an entry on Monday. She has held her market position at the top of the tree despite not being seen, and there are two reasons for that. First was her impressive victory over the now 126-rated The Lord Maid and 119-rated Amanha, where she barely came out of second gear. The other is that the division has not offered a lot of promise this season.

Therefore, she is worth chancing before her hurdling debut that she will make up into a propper sort. Her RPR rating for her bumper victory was seven pounds clear of the ten previous winners, and it's wise to remember she was only 8/19.00 for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.

This is a risky bet because a poor showing on Monday will almost certainly see her at a considerable price, but I am happy to take the risk as victory could easily see her a 7/42.75 favourite in a weak year.

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