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Stayers' Hurdle 2023 looks wide open
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Many await the return of Blazing Khal, including Daryl!
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Paisley a rock-solid place proposition.
The Stayers' Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt race open to horses aged four years or older. It's run on the New Course at the Cheltenham Festival and over two miles, 7 furlongs and 213 yards, with 12 hurdles to be jumped.
Punters patiently awaiting return of the Khal
Blazing Khal 6/1 fits nearly all of the stats and trends for this race and is the young pretender many punters are hoping will take the baton off of the old brigade.
Still, we haven't seen Blazing Khal since scoring in December 2021 when winning the Albert Barlett Grade 2 trial at Cheltenham. That day, he beat Gelino Bello, a subsequent fourth in the Lanzarote, a Novice Hurdle winner and Aintree Grade 1 winner.
It's hard to get a read on reports from the shrew yard of Charles Byrnes, but it looks as though all systems are go for a prep run before the Cheltenham Festival. All eyes will be on January 19 at Naas - a race he used for 2013 winner Solwhit before going on to Stayers' Hurdle glory.
While he has significant potential, the market does love it. You could argue he is short enough in the betting, having not seen him for more than 365 days.
His official rating of 147 would also leave him around 12 pounds to find with the average rating of a Stayers' Hurdle winner in the last 10 years (159.2). But he surely has improvement to come and is a huge player if he turns up here fit and well.
Porter has been far from floorless this season
Two-time previous winner Flooring Porter 5/1 has been trained with one race in mind. But it is alarming that he has produced two performances recording two RPRs this season in the 150s for the first time since 2020.
There looks to be a way to get him beaten and that's by hassling him for the lead. Dashel Drasher 25/1 could be the horse that ensures this is a true end-to-end gallop and may prove the downfall of Flooring Porter.
No horse other than Big Buck's has won this race three times, and he could easily find pace pressure in this year's renewal.
Home By The Lee, 6/1, has held Flooring Porter twice this season after finishing behind him in this race in 2022. Still, Home By The Lee could be viewed as on an upward curve on known figures. However, one thing he hasn't improved on this season is the clock and it could be the case that his rivals, including Flooring Porter, have been below par.
I am not convinced by Home By The Lee and think that he is not as good as his results suggest. I am taking a dim view of the overall form, which includes recent Jack De Bromhead Hurdle third Ashdale Bob 10/1.
What's wrong with Paisley?
I am not the first person to suggest that 2019 winner Paisley Park 14/1 is overpriced after two excellent efforts, and a race-topping RPR of 164 at Kempton, and even more so now after the entry stage.
He is not the force of old according to the figures, but it's hard to suggest he is far off, having done excellently well to chase home Champ at Newbury and then scalping that rival at Kempton this season.
All roads lead to the Cleve Hurdle before this contest, and he is a potential market shortener.
He does rely on a good clip but the market has seen as much as we have. There is no angle here to suggest he should be shorter and, at the grand old age of 11, he will attempt to be the first horse since 1986 winner Crimson Embers to win at a double-figure age.
That also ties in Champ 25/1 and Sire Du Berlais 66/1. This race usually goes to younger legs, but where are they all? They are non-existent, and should Blazing Khal not turn up, then Paisley Park's recent running may be enough to regain his title and bring the house down.
Those strange entries
Chacun Pour Soi 20/1 has a Stayers' Hurdle entry, strangely enough. A horse that has never been further than 2m in Britain or Ireland and hasn't been seen over hurdles since running in France in 2015 when recording an RPR high of 126. Who knows what goes on in Willie Mullins' mind?
Mullins has also entered Asterion Forlonge 16/1, Haut En Couleurs 25/1, Monkfish 20/1, Sharjah 14/1, and Sir Gerhard 16/1, which are highly unlikely to turn up here.
Summerville Boy 66/1, Hewick 40/1, and Goshen 33/1 complete the list of rather odd entries. Hewick is easily the most interesting of those!
The Verdict
Like many, I eagerly await Blazing Khal's return with Meet And Greet a very surprising no-show.
The young guns are where I am looking for Grade 1 Stayers' Hurdle success, although I am very tempted by Paisley Park in a field where many have shown their hand and many are unlikely to turn up. This has become very tricky.