Williams out to break nine year barren spell
Venetia Williams has trained six winners at the Cheltenham Festival and has a good chance of adding to that tally at this year's showcase meeting with plenty of likeable runners.
Williams has a nine-year barren spell to overcome in order to get back in the Cheltenham winner's enclosure with her last success being Carrickboy in the 2013 Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase. That success was a third win in that particular race- now known as the Plate Handicap Chase.
The yard also won the race in 2009 with Something Wells and in 2007 with Idole First.
The other two Cheltenham Festival winners Williams has saddled are Samakaan in the 2000 Grand Annual and with Idole First in the 2005 Coral Cup.
Since Carrickboy in 2013, Williams has sent out 78 runners at the Cheltenham Festival with no wins and five second-place finishes. However, the majority of those horses were unfancied. In fact, only 3 of those 78 runners were sent off at single-figure odds.
The five horses who finished second were all double-figure prices at 33/1, 33/1, 20/1, 33/1 and 33/1. Therefore, her bigger priced horses have often outperformed expectation and proves Williams' longshots are certainly not ones to dismiss lightly.
Williams has trained two third placed finishers in the past nine years where their SPs were 8/1 and 40/1. She has also had two fourth place finishes at 14/1 and 20/1 showcasing again, that there is value to be found with her horses to hit the frame at decent prices.
Three runners hit the frame at 2021 Cheltenham Festival
In 2021 Williams saddled eight runners where she had one second, one third and one fourth. Cloudy Glen finished second at 33/1 in the Kim Muir, Ibleo was third at 9/1 in the Grand Annual and Cepage finished fourth at 14/1 in the Ultima.
Added to those who hit the frame was a good run by Fanion D'Estruval at 66/1 to be fifth in the Ryanair, admittedly last of the finishers behind Allaho who put most to the sword. Royale Pagaille finished sixth in the Gold Cup at 14/1 where Aso finished also ran and finished eighth at 150/1. Her final two runners were Burgundy Man who unseated in the Boodles Fred Winter at 150/1 and Didero Vallis who pulled up at 33/1 in the Kim Muir.
The year previous wasn't as happy a hunting ground for Williams in 2020. The yard sent out just five runners with two finishing seventh, a faller and two who pulled up.
2019 was similar to 2021 where Williams saddled eight runners which resulted in a second place for Aso at 33/1 in the Ryanair. Didero Vallis finished fifth at 16/1 in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase. Yala Enki was seventh at 100/1 in the Gold Cup. Burrows Park finished ninth at 25/1 in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.
There were two 16th place finishes from Eminent Poet and Uhlan Bute at 66/1 and 50/1 in the Pertemps and Kim Muir respectively. The final two runners both pulled up, Calipto at 14/1 in the Ultima and Gardefort at 28/1 in the Stable Plate.
Focus on the Handicaps
When diving into the stats for Williams's Cheltenham Festival runners, there have been 200 bets at a 2.5% win success rate and a -51 P/L but 28 places which sees a 14% place success rate.
The races to focus on for Williams's Festival runners is certainly the handicaps, more importantly, the Plate Handicap Chase in which she has had three winners. Those wins include a one-two in the race where Something Wells won at 33/1 from his stablemate, Ping Pong Sivola in second as the 13/2 favourite.
Each of Williams's three winners of that race where double figure prices so it's worth noting her runners in the Grade 3 Plate Handicap Chase at big odds to finish in the places.
This year she has five entered in the race, those being: Chambard, Pink Legend, Espoir De Guye, Farinet and Fontaine Collonges. The shortest priced runner of those is Espoir De Guye at 21.020/1 at the current time of writing. Farinet is a current 26.025/1 shot, Fontaine Collonges is also at 26.025/1 which is also the price about Chambard. Pink Legend is the biggest price of the five at 34.033/1.
The Plate Handicap Chase is the race to focus on for Williams's runners and each look a fair price to be chancing to outrun their odds. Of course, many of these horses have multiple entries so that is worth baring in mind.
Chambard is also entered in the Ultima and the Kim Muir. Pink Legend is also entered in the Mares' Chase. Espoir De Guye wasn't declared for the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury so looks likely to head straight to Cheltenham for the Plate Handicap Chase. Farinet was declared to run at Newbury so may not take in his Cheltenham engagement but is also entered in the Ultima. Fontaine Collonges only has one entry and that is for the Plate Handicap Chase.
Could this be Williams's strongest Festival yet?
Williams has a total of 38 entries from 24 horses so this may well be her strongest year yet in terms of numbers. It also looks likely that this will be Williams's strongest year in terms of success rate with many leading fancies.
L'Homme Presse looks to be the stable flagbearer at this year's Festival where he's entered in both the Turners' Novices' Chase and the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase. He is sure to be prominent in the market for either race but will have tough competition whichever route he takes.
He has an optimal profile for the Grand Annual on recent renewals and may be another to further bolster Williams's handicap winning record at the Cheltenham Festival.
Funambule Sivola effectively ruled himself out of a tilt at the Grand Annual by winning the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase last time out. That has taken his mark to 159 and instead of the Grand Annual, he's now in the Champion Chase mix where he will have a huge task on his hands to overhaul Shishkin and Energumene.
Royale Pagaille is yet another flagbearer for the yard and will try his hand in the Gold Cup again this year. He was a novice in last year's Gold Cup where admittedly, he was only a novice in name with plenty of previous chasing experience to his name. He should cope with the nature of the race a lot better this year, but the concern is whether he'll get his preferred soft ground to be seen to optimal effect.
Green Book is entered in the Coral Cup as well as the Ballymore and the Albert Bartlett. He may well be a second winner of the Coral Cup for Williams and has had a solid season.
He won back-to-back handicap hurdles in December before being sent off as the joint favourite for the Lanzarote Hurdle. He was hugely unfortunate at Kempton to unseat when hampered at the second hurdle. He got back to winning ways in a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown in February before being found out in Grade 2 company behind Hillcrest at Haydock. Being back in a handicap should see him to better effect.
Cheltenham form this season
Williams is two from 10 at Cheltenham this season winning The Dipper with L'Homme Presse and a Grade 3 3m2f Handicap Chase with Commodore in December.Williams's career Cheltenham track stats are 9% with 58 wins from 630 runners dropping to 7% over the last five years with five from 68.
Credit to Gaultstats for these statistics where more information can be found on the website to enhance your Cheltenham Festival knowledge. There is the opportunity to donate to charity for the free statistics and trends courtesy of Bryan Gault.
It'll be no easy feat for Venetia Williams to overhaul her rivals with her Grade 1 entries. L'Homme Presse looks the most likely winner in that sphere however, she should have a strong battalion to go to war with in the handicaps. Brave Seasca is the most interesting should he run in the Grand Annual. When focussing on the Plate Handicap Chase, do not dismiss Williams's runners at big prices- such is her good record in the race.