Time to get the trading tweeds dusted off, and if there isn't such thing, there should be, in anticipation for the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. For those that have taken a long-term position both laying and backing, the Tuesday to Friday offers the chance to execute those well laid-plans and trade up or down on the day. Last term almost £154million was matched over the course of the four days, with the kick-off Supreme one of the busiest with over £8million on the back and lay side.
I have my own in-running tales, and while I have had a few horses defeated at 1.011/100 as a backer at Cheltenham, two that stand out for me were Starluck and New Year's Eve.
Starluck was a wonderful little horse, and I had backed him ante-post for the 2009 Triumph. I was also lucky enough to be there that day covering the meeting for Timeform Radio and had a great position down at the foot of the hill. That was the vantage point seeing him swagger into the race with his customary free-wheeling style. I thought I had it in the bag, as I said to Dave Farrar, in hope, that day: "Isn't he moving wonderfully Dave?"
Or words along those lines. Maybe a bit more colourful.
He then met the famous Cheltenham Hill, and he lost. Done at 1.654/6. I didn't lay off. Lessons learned and all that. Or not was in the case of New Year's Eve - who was my Champion Bumper project for 2012, and I always like a Bumper project.
I was a John Ferguson devotee at the time, and I still yearn for those days of seeing an ex-Godolphin runner who finished fourth in the Arc to run over hurdles at Market Rasen. A great idea, and I wish it was still going.
New Year's Eve was fancied in the betting too, and it looked good when he hit odds-on in the run. He got to as low as 1.384/11 only to be outstayed by Champagne Fever who turned out to be alright in the end. I reflect on that now and think could Champagne Fever do it on a wet windy afternoon in a Conditions race in a field of four, with two Godolphin runners that haven't won for ages over 1m6f at Nottingham?
Backers of Champagne Fever didn't care that day, and he hit a high of 36.035/1 in-play. He also won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at 14.527/2 in-running from 5/1. A good Cheltenham horse, and remember that hill can provide in-running fun and games.
Will we see another Mount Ida and win for the 999/1 backers?
The in-running Exchange headline horse from 2021 by a country mile was Mount Ida - although with the way she stays, perhaps a few country hectares?
Her victory in the Kim Muir last term was so bizarre, it could almost be part of Prestbury Park's very own tales - and few would believe it. She jumped off under Jack Kennedy as a 4.216/5 leading contender pre-race, and those that had laid at those odds would have been sitting very comfortably in the early throes. To transfer yourself to a layer that day, and four fences in, with a series of awful, clumsy leaps out the back, her chance appeared over as quick as the race started as the prices were going higher and higher.
The two jumps at the water and the following fence; were a pair of the most erratic leaps from a Festival winner I've ever seen.
That meant the layers who took her on at around 4.03/1 would have had ample opportunity to garner a green back as about a minute-and-a-half into the race she was cooked, and the price started to go violently upwards. Laying at 3/1 and backing back at double figures could have been the start, but what unfolded as she was anchored out the back was remarkable.
She looked beat, and well beat, and within two minutes of a contest that was run at a frenetic pace, it was game over, as she had hit the top price of 999/1 in-running. Or so it seemed with regards to it being game over.
To flip the story, there are unfortunately layers that do take on such 1000.0999/1 shots, ergo we'd have no market. The sum of £102 was matched at the ceiling price, and there wouldn't have been many to argue and question those layers. Nearly £4.3million was traded on the 3m2f race as a whole, and a fair chunk of that would have been those scrambling to get out of a position or to minimise the losses. And those looking to get on, perhaps again? It's what makes a great in-running contest; like T20 cricket - fast, frenetic, and wild price swings.
Mount Ida was merely having some fun under Jack Kennedy, and as she started to warm up, it was clear from before the half-way point she was back in the race. Of course the opportunity would have been there to back at high prices still, but in the space of less than 10 seconds, the 999/1 had gone down to 500/1. A steeper drop you won't see. The indicators started to flash to get the backers at top price dreaming when Simon Holt called her getting back into contention at the water jump for the second time.
Even for those that pressed on the blue side at 100.099/1 would have had some great chances to trade and gain a green book.
In the end, she won by nearly seven lengths, to cap a truly staggering victory. Mount Ida may have her own ideas, and while she can jump like a "bag of hammers" as Jerry Hannon famously said, her staying power at Cheltenham looks unrivalled.
Kennedy somewhat understatedly reflected on the curious win by saying: " She wasn't jumping or travelling early on but she warmed into it lovely and she was doing her best work at the finish. I had planned it going a bit smoother in the early part of the race in my head but I was left in the position I was left in. I just had to do what I could from there."
And do it she did. For those that found any of the £102 at 1000.0999/1, well done. But spare a thought for the layers. Perhaps they had their day when they took her on on her next start at Fairyhouse when he was beaten in-running finishing third. Done at 1.664/6.
She's entered in two races at this year's "Fez", and while she is in the Gold Cup as a 120.0119/1 outsider, the market has her pinned as the favourite for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase on the Friday too, at 3.259/4. Will history repeat itself?
Even with a ragged display of jumping 12 months on, layers will be wised up now, but she did gives us the Miracle in Montpellier, and who knows if she can do it again?
Tremendous Banter from Belfast on his big day
Another chunky in-play winner came on the Friday with Belfast Banter - who won the 2021 County Hurdle as an unfancied 33/1 chance.
Peter Fahey's hurdler at that point was fast becoming a bit of a bridle horse, as he had collected some previous as a smooth traveller that didn't find an awful lot in a finish and had finished second more times than he had won - which reminded me of Starluck not getting up that hill. Indeed, he had racked up four odds-on defeats in-running prior to his glorious moment at Prestbury Park - and some of those defeats were joyous for the layers at prices of 1.031/33 and 1.111/9.
He had has day, though, and last spring he came good with a fast pace in a quick time to beat 24 other rivals with a price matched during the run at 190.0189/1. The third that day Milkwood played the role of villain for the afternoon and he was traded as low as 1.21/5 in defeat.
It was emotional too for jockey Kevin Sexton, who gained his first-ever Festival winner with the unlikely hero, he said: "I got quite emotional pulling up. I actually stopped riding two years ago because it just wasn't happening for me. I had a couple of injuries and I got kind of into a low place, and if it wasn't for my family, my girlfriend, friends and Peter, I wouldn't be back riding. In my head I had given up. To be here riding a winner is unbelievable."
Belfast Banter's history as a smooth traveller dictated his price at 189/1 in-play, as it was more to do with historical evidence rather than run style. The 7yo received a great ride that afternoon from Sexton, and as the Racing Post pointed out; it was a fourth winner of the week for sire Jeremy. Although the BB's relatives were all a bit classier in Appreciate It, Black Tears and Sir Gerhard.
This year's County Hurdle favourite is Top Bandit at 9.417/2 and is a very interesting runner regarding his in-play trades. In his first three bumpers he was beaten at 1.211/5, 1.241/4 and 1.132/15 when he finished second on three successive starts. He's really found his feet this term though with three wins in novice company, including one at Cheltenham in October.
He has a mark of 139, an 11lb jump up from his latest novice win and has a great profile for the race with a nice weight.
Alan Partridge was well-known for his love of tremendous banter, and it was Partridge who often ended a tale in his book "Bouncing Back" with the phrase "Needless to say, I had the last laugh". Indeed, Peter Fahey's hurdler had the last laugh that afternoon.
Slowly does it with Chantry for the Gold Cup?
Chantry House's victory in the 2021 Marsh as it was known (also Golden Miller) saw him win at a BSP of 10.09/1, yet he was matched at 17.016/1 in-play in what was the biggest traded race of the whole meeting on the Exchange - just over £9.3million.
The chaser has been called a few names this year, but I wouldn't mind owning a horse rated 162. You could call him anything you like if he was mine, indeed, you could also call me anything you like for him.
As a novice he always looked in need of an extreme trip, and he'll get his wish as he is in the Gold Cup betting as a 21.020/1 outsider. Judged on his victory at Cheltenham in beating Santini in perhaps one of the worst-ever Cotswold Chases at the track. It was a real battle of the Don Polis.
While one wag commented on Twitter he will be lapped in the Gold Cup, traders will be hoping that is right. He can be a lay at 21.020/1 and a back at Mount Ida prices for a green book, or you could just be patient and if you are keen to back him (and there could be a few), and use Keep Bets in-play and order a price two or three times higher.
It's still somewhat surprising he only hit 17.016/1 in-running last term.
Jeff Kidder was another big price winner at 170.0169/1 in-play, although his BSP in the 2021 Juvenile Hurdle was 120.0119/1, so I'd have missed him with a million goes.
What was interesting was the fact the superstar marquee horses rarely traded higher than their BSP, as if the layers won't take any chances at all. Shishkin only went to 1.68/13 as a high from 1.558/15. A staggering figure considering he has to jump and face some serious rivals. While the great Honeysuckle's Champion Hurdle win was a similar story with only 2.79179/100 given in-play. There never seems to be any drama with her at all.
Bob Olinger could be destined for greatness, and his 3.814/5 in-play high for his Ballymore win last term was the highest he has ever been matched in his career.
I wish I could back a Bob Olinger everyday, although I'm still waiting for the once in a lifetime 999/1 Mount Ida win. Good luck for the Festival and hopefully you can find a big one in-play. Just not when I'm a layer.