Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams says Johnny to upset favourite at Market Rasen

• Selection looked in need of sharper test in points

• Fav's point form nothing out of the ordinary

• Johnny Dogs is overpriced at Market Rasen

Market Rasen - 17:40 - Back Johnny Dogs

Woodie Flash is a very short-priced favourite for the opening maiden hurdle at Market Rasen. But Johnny Dogs is capable of putting up more of a challenge than the market suggests, given the ability he showed in the Irish pointing field.

Woodie Flash was well beaten on debut at Boulta where he would have finished seventh but for the carnage at two out.

He was likely a lucky winner at Ballinaboola on his second start. On that occasion, Typhoon Flyer fell and took out Walks Like The Man at two out when Woodie Flash was back in third and seemingly being left behind by that pair.

He was bought for £20,000 following that, which I think sums up the lack of much quality in those runs, and it's his connections rather than achievements which are causing his price today.

Johnny Dogs took much longer to get off the mark in Irish points, scoring at the seventh attempt, but he showed promise prior to that with racing over a shorter trip in mind.

He was too keen when dropping away quickly in the closing stages on debut at Tralee in May last year but stepped up on that on his first start for a new yard at Tattersalls Farm in December.

He was dropped right out and was in a share of last turning down the back straight for the final time. He started to make headway going to four out and after jumping that he made a big move to be in a share of second at three out but the run flattened out and he was soon left behind by Insurrection.

Johnny Dogs was given another patient ride next time at Turtulla and had eased into a share of the lead at three out which he got all wrong and took a heavy fall. He fell at the first at Nenagh after that before failing to see out the trip at Bandon when they went back to prominent tactics.

He caught the eye at Lingstown two starts ago when far more patient tactics were used once again before he made a big move after four out to jump three out in a share of the lead. But the effort of making such a move on softening ground took its toll and he dropped away late on.

Johnny Dogs finally got off the mark last time when gifted a soft lead and he took advantage. He's regularly looked in need of a sharper test in points and while I would ideally have wanted to see him racing over a shorter trip than this, I think this will be more suitable for him than the three miles he's been racing over in points.

The way that he's travelled in points suggests that if this turns tactical then he could have too much speed for Woodie Flash.

There is a concern that he might be too keen if they try to hold him up in this small field and it may be that two miles over fences is where he will be seen to best effect in the long run. However, I think there's too much between the front pair in the market given what they've shown in Irish points and any 5/23.50 or bigger appeals.