Finally getting a suitable test
Chelmsford 14:55: Sir Joseph Swan 1pt e/w 16/1
It may turn out that Thunder Flash is too good for these but the market hasn't missed that and there's a horse at a much bigger price who I think could run better than his price suggests.
Sir Joseph Swan made a slow start to his career when well beaten at Newbury and Brighton (didn't handle the undulating track) but he showed enough in his following two starts at Windsor to suggest that he could be competitive in a race of this quality.
On his third start in a novice race over a mile, he travelled well before being outpaced with around two furlongs to go. He wasn't given a hard ride as the leaders quickened away and still looked to have something left at the line, finishing sixth.
He was moved into handicap company for his next start over the same C&D and ran better than the result suggests. Having raced in midfield through the first half of the race, he was shaken along with around half a mile to go and was then hampered. He lost his position and appeared to be going nowhere under pressure with around 1½ furlongs to go but he ran on well late on to finish sixth.
Sir Joseph Swan has failed to build on that in two starts since but I thought he was always out of his comfort zone with ridden handily in first time cheekpieces over a mile at Kempton and the heavy ground looks an obvious excuse for his latest start at Windsor over 1m3½f.
He's now dropped back in trip to 1m2f and I think that could be ideal for him as he looked short of the necessary speed for a mile at Windsor. His dam won two races on the flat over 1m2f and 1m4f and Sir Joseph Swan's full brother won over 1m2f.
It might be that he's just not straightforward and won't build on the promise he showed in those two starts over a mile at Windsor or he might be a horse who needs to be given time and won't start showing his true ability until next season but I think he has the ability to be competitive in this and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Recommended bets
Back Sir Joseph Swan in the 14:55 at Chelmsford 1pt e/w at 17.016/1
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
Staked: 293.50pts
Returned: 352.60pts
P/L: +59.10pts
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