Rhys Williams' Monday Racing Tips: Barton a strong bet in without market

Promise in strong bumpers

Hexham 13:52: North Parade 1.5pt win 12/1

Dazzling Glory and Geronimo dominate the market in this race and both have shown a fairly good level of ability. Geronimo won on his second start over hurdles at Newcastle and Dazzling Glory has run well in all three runs in bumpers. However, there's another horse who I think showed just as much promise in bumpers as Dazzling Glory who seems to have been underestimated by the market.

North Parade made his debut at Wetherby last season and ran well despite showing plenty of greenness, having to be shaken along after only a few strides. He had to be nudged along going away from the stands but generally travelled well after that until the end of the back straight. He was squeezed up leaving the back straight when going for a gap towards the inside and was pushed along after. In last place entering the home straight, he gradually found his stride and stayed on strongly in the closing stages to finish 9¾ lengths behind the winner in fifth.

The four horses that finished ahead of him that day are now rated 131, 134, 141 and 125 over hurdles so considering the inexperience he showed, that was a very good run on debut.

He was a bit disappointing next time at Doncaster but that was on heavy ground. He raced prominently in a tightly-packed small field and was nudged along early in the straight before appearing to stumble slightly. Pushed along more firmly after that, he stayed in touch with Kearney Hill and Nells Son before dropping away just before the wings of the last hurdle and again looked to lose his footing on the badly cut up surface.

On Kearney Hill's only start since he chased home the now 135-rated Ashtown Lad at Wetherby on hurdling debut while Nells Son has won both starts in bumpers since.

North Parade returns today after 415 days off and having had a wind op. It's worrying that he's been off for so long as that suggests he's had a problem and I'm not certain that he wants the ground quite this quick. He also looked quite ungainly at Doncaster but that may have been due to the awful surface.

Physically he looked a horse to improve with him so it's encouraging that ran so well on debut at Wetherby. Clearly there are concerns on his hurdling debut, which is why he's a win only bet as it's possible he could completely flop, but if he shows the ability that he did at Wetherby then he will be far more competitive than his price suggests.

Promising last run in Irish point

Hexham 17:05: Radetzky March 1pt win 9/1

Of those that have run in bumpers, Fly By Milan sets the standard while Kayf Hernando was unfortunate to lose on debut at Kinsale after a bad mistake at 2 out. I'm not sure they set an insurmountable standard, however, and a horse with unappealing form figures arguably showed as much ability on his latest start.

Radetzky March failed to complete on four of his five starts in Irish points for Tom Keating but ran better than the bare result suggests at Oldtown two starts ago and ran very well at Ballindenisk on his latest outing.

In a five-runner race at Oldtown, he raced prominently for a long way and was still in front at 3 out. He started to weaken on the long run to 2 out but was still in a share of second at 2 out before having nothing left and being pulled up. The winner of that maiden was strongly fancied when third for a Navan bumper since while the runner up won over hurdles at Warwick earlier this month.

Radetzky March improved on that on his most recent run. He travelled strongly in midfield for much of the race and was shaken along to make headway turning into the straight. He jumped 2 out just behind the leader and came under stronger pressure to challenge going to the last. He was about a neck down and still in with a chance when falling.

That left Kilbeg King clear. That horse has since easily won a Uttoxeter bumper and, if he was running in this, would probably be challenging for the position of favourite.

Radetzky March has now joined Laura Morgan and the sharper test of a bumper looks likely to suit him given what he showed in points. The stiff climb in the closing stages at Hexham may not be ideal but I think there's not much between what him and Kayf Hernando achieved in points and while that horse might be open to more improvement, any 7/1 or bigger appeals on Radetzky March.

Kempton 17:20: Tom Barton w/o Adrien Du Pont and Envoye Special 3pt win 11/8

Adrien Du Pont and Envoye Special dominate the market for the hunter chase at Kempton and I'm not going to try to beat them. Instead, there's a very appealing bet in the market without the pair of them.

Tom Barton has never been the easiest of rides and can throw in the odd very sulky effort and his jumping under rules has tended to lack fluency but he's got a fairly good level of ability. He ran well at Wincanton two starts ago when fourth behind Caid Du Berlais and he ran well for a long way at Stratford last time, when finishing behind Envoye Special, on ground that would have been softer than ideal for him.

While he may not be Mr Consistent, I think he's far more reliable than his opposition in this market which is why he's such a strong bet. He's currently joint favourite with Sheer Poetry. That horse showed some ability under rules in the past but she's been off the track for 1096 days. She's also now with a trainer whose 21 runners in points and hunter chases since the start of 2016 all failed to complete and his one horse in Arabian races in 2012, managed a best of sixth in four starts. Hardly an appealing profile when backing one coming back off a huge absence.

Dissertation is next in and is also coming back off a long break, albeit just the 717 days for this one. She ran surprisingly well in the two-miler on Cheltenham's hunter chase night in 2019 but she often looked a tricky ride in the past and I'm not certain wants 2m4f at the pace this is likely to be run at.

And then there's Only Time'll Time who hasn't completed a race since finishing 95 lengths behind the winner in fifth at Lingfield at 2017.

Therefore, while Tom Barton is rarely one to place maximum faith in, he's significantly more appealing than his three rivals in this market and as long as he's ridden to put the least pressure possible on his jumping (so to not try to match Adrien Du Pont) I think he's far more likely to beat those rivals than the 11/8 suggests.

Prominent tactics will help

Tramore 19:10: Duty Calls 0.5pt e/w 66/1

Winged Leader and Wrong Direction set a good standard in the hunter chase at Tramore but I think a horse at a huge price could outrun his odds.

Duty Calls may not have the most appealing profile given that he's failed to complete in three of his four starts in hunter chases but I think he's got some ability. Last season, he was ridden very patiently but they changed tactics at Toomebridge on his first run of this season and he won comfortably. He then chased home Mr Mantilla, who won his next two starts and ran at Cheltenham, and High Stakes who won his next three starts including a wide-margin wide in a bumper at Wexford.

They reverted to patient tactics at Fairyhouse and he ran badly but a return to riding him handily was having a positive impact until he came down at Downpatrick. When Pyrios went clear, he raced at the head of the chasing pack and he jumped to the front at the second fence on the final circuit. He was joined by Saint Benedict going to 4 out and still appeared to be going well when he reached for it a little and crumped on landing.

His jumping has been an issue in the past but I think he's generally jumped much better when ridden prominently and those tactics are never a bad idea around Tramore. It may be that he lacks a little of the class of the front pair but if he's ridden handily and his jumping holds up, I think Duty Calls will run better than 66/1 suggests.