Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take aim at 25/1 L'Eau Du Sud in Haydock hurdle

• Watch out for the weather and double entries

• Cheer on Supreme pick in Haydock Trial

• Throw a speculative 25/1 dart in New Hurdle

I was surprised to see that Lingfield's three-day £1m Winter Million Festival meeting, starting on Friday, is not on ITV this year - apparently the snooker and darts on the channel put the kibosh on that - but they may need some luck with the weather to even be racing.

I imagine the track was still pretty much waterlogged/frosty under the covers on Tuesday morning after the weekend rain in the area. But the main danger to the meeting, and indeed all courses this week, are probably the freezing temperatures.

They have already claimed Chepstow, and Newbury this week. They probably will not be the last.

It is due to get as low as -5 at Lingfield on Friday night (though Saturday's card is all-weather, they are also firmly in minus territory on Thursday and Saturday) and the ITV action comes from Ascot, Haydock, and Taunton.

The overnight forecast on Friday for those three tracks is set to be around -3.

As for the ground it is currently heavy at Haydock, a mix of soft and good to soft at Ascot (despite 16mm on Monday), and soft at Taunton. There doesn't seem to be that much rain around - at the moment anyway - but we hardly have drying conditions.

Just three declared for Ascot Grade 1

Famous last words and all that but I sense all will be okay - Lingfield covered the entire track with frost covers on Monday - but Ascot will also be biting down to their toenails that both Energumene and Edwardstone (a precarious betting heat but 1/2 plays 11/8 on with the Sportsbook) make it to the Clarence House Chase at 15:35 on Saturday, or else it could be a colossal 175k damp squib.

Sure, a match-up of the first two in the Champion Chase betting would be great. But it is already something of an embarrassment number-wise anyway, with just three declared at the five-day stage on Monday, the other horse in the mix being the 151-rated improver Amarillo Sky (a 20/1 chance guaranteed at least £18.725 if he finishes third).

I have never seen so few entered in a race at this point, let alone a Grade 1.

I appreciate we had only four runners when Shishkin beat Energumene in the race last season, a contest laughably hailed as "the best of all time" in some quarters (I blame Brough Scott for kicking off that nonsense, and ITV and other broadcasters for running with the idea). But, either way, we can revisit this race later in the week, when I am currently betting no-offers that I won't have a financial interest in it.

Weather is spanner in works for antepost tips

These mares' hurdles never attract many entries either, so they have probably done well to get nine in the 60k 2m7f18yd contest at 14:25, though be aware that six of these - Coquelicot, Haute Estime, Malakhana, Molly Ollys Wishes, Terresita and Whitehotchillifili - have alternative engagements this week.

That fact should, theoretically, make this race very interesting from a betting point view but the layers aren't stupid and have priced it up accordingly, i.e. defensively.

Do you really want to be backing last year's winner Molly Ollys Wishes at 13/8 when she is also in a 100k race at Lingfield (and one with only 11 five-day entries) on Sunday?

Her stablemate Get A Tonic is probably more appealing at 5/2 but that price is hardly enticing. The other two who go to Ascot or nowhere this week are 6/1 chance Indefatigable and 10s poke Marsh Wren. The former carries a 6lb penalty (as does the favourite) and is out of form while Marsh Wren is rated a mere 120 and is unproven over the trip.

In fact, it is a theme of the weekend races that many horses have options this week, no doubt in part due to the weather and possible further abandonments, as well as Lingfield's Winter Million Festival presenting valuable alternatives in its second year and putting a spanner in the works for antepost punters.

Double entries make for punter's minefield

The two ITV handicaps at Ascot have healthy five-day fields at the moment but, again, there are a lot of double-entered horses in both.

There are 12 that could go elsewhere this week in the 23-strong 2m3f handicap hurdle at 13:50, likewise eight of the 18 in the 2m5f handicap chase at 15:00, while a further two in the latter race have the option of waiting for the SkyBet Chase a week on Saturday (Demachine and Ga Law).

The double-entered horses in the 13:50 are Bothwell Bridge, Djelo, Gunnery Officer, Jacamar, Le Patron, Lock' Corner, Malakhana, Might I, Pyramid Place, Rathmacknee, Terresita and Twinjets.

In the 15:00, they are Brave Seasca, Danny Kirwan, Dusart, Equuus Dancer, Fanion D'Estruval, Frero Banbou, One True King and Regal Encore.

In fact, Twinjets and Gunnery Officer are not even eligible in the 13:50, a race which looks well worth swerving at this point, as it looks a proper minefield. Le Patron, just a 6/1 chance, and Pyramid Place are in overnight at Wincanton on Thursday, so you can't back those two at this stage.

The Sportsbook originally offered a stand-out 10/1 about Too Friendly and that attracted a few punters (cut into 15/2 at 9.30am on Tuesday morning) as he has been running well from a stable back with a bang on Saturday.

He has never raced on anything worse than good to soft, however, and that would be a slight concern if the ground did worsen (though no rain is forecast at this point) or ride far more testing than the official description (which has been known).

The two that I liked most in the 15:00 were last year's winner Phoenix Way and Your Darling, the latter very interesting down in trip having traded at 1.99 in running before emptying over 3m here last time, but I was hoping for a fair bit more than 6/1 and 5/1 respectively. I can certainly wait for bigger prices about those two.

Keep an eye on Supreme bet this Saturday

I am bit wary about betting on very bad ground after last weekend, but my eyes will be on Rare Edition in the Supreme Trial in Haydock heavy at 13:30.

I have had very few Cheltenham nibbles this season and only one serious one, and that is Charlie Longsdon's horse in the Festival opener at 20/1+ on the Betfair Exchange and a bit more on at 14s non-runner money-back. I'd very much like to see him kick this lot out of the way and his jockey laughing as he does so.

I'd be hopeful he could as he was seriously impressive at Kempton on Boxing Day, and so was the handicapper who gave him a mark of 138 for that.

To put that into context, Tahmuras got put on the same level after his Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle win, and I actually think Rare Edition is marginally the better horse of that pair at the moment.

Certainly on the clock so far, as that emphatic Kempton win came in a very good time.

This clearly won't be easy as he will be carrying a 3lb penalty against six other last-time-out winners in very deep ground, so I don't see much mileage in backing him here at 13/8. I'll just be cheering him, and my longer-term position, on.

And I must admit this could be a very hot renewal. Three of these are also rated in the 130s (the 136-rated Pembroke is actually the top-rated at the weights, using official marks) and I was very impressed by Doyen Star's win at Chepstow back in November. By the way, only the mare Poetic Music has another entry this week.

L'Eau Du Sud can handle Haydock mud

Five of the nine in the Unibet New One Hurdle at 14:05 (for some reason they have dropped the first word from The New One's name) have other options this week, and those being First Street, Jason The Militant, Metier, Minella Drama and Nells Son.

In fact, the latter has been confirmed for a handicap chase at Newcastle on Thursday, so don't back him for now.

Epatante has been put in as the 4/6 favourite but I wouldn't be backing her in that ground.

It was going to be another no-bet race, with running plans up in the air, but the more I looked the more I was inclined to throw a speculative dart.

Step forward L'Eau Du Sud at 25/1 with the Sportsbook.

Now, I have no idea if he is an intended runner, he carries a 4lb penalty for his French Listed win, and he may be lapped anyway as he is only rated 131.

But will the penalised, and course virgin, Epatante even be entered on Haydock heavy?

I Like To Move It and First Street are next in the betting at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively and they will have never experienced conditions so deep, with the first-named very disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Both have 4lb penalties, too.

Jason The Militant is the other form horse, and one suited to mud - he would look huge at 20s is they decide to come here - but he is in at Lingfield on Friday and Sunday and connections are still deliberating where to go, while another slop merchant Metier ran so badly on his reappearance at Kempton that he is difficult to entertain.

Nells Son will presumably run at Newcastle on Thursday if that meeting goes ahead and Minella Drama is a chaser surely better suited to the Peter Marsh or at Lingfield on Sunday.

No, I am going to back and tip Dan Skelton's horse at 25s, and I may even chuck a few quid on For Pleasure at 66s, and pray that the race cuts up badly.

It is heavy at Haydock and there is a little rain forecast on most days this week, so it is going to be pretty brutal I imagine, and L'Eau Du Sud certainly looks to be well equipped to handle the mud judged on his deep-ground (yes, I know I have never seen any other ground description there) French exploits.

He also shaped very well when third in soft ground stepped back to 2m in a handicap at Kempton last time, hinting at much better to come given the way he travelled.

There will need to be of course and maybe that will come in the Betfair Hurdle next month instead of here (the weights are out for the Newbury handicap on Wednesday). But Skelton has obviously seen that this race could cut up and I bet he'd bite your hand off (and eat a few other of your limbs, while he is at it) if you offered him the prospect of going to Newbury with a penalty and a 75k Grade 2 in the bag.

The horse is part-owned by those famed locals Ged Mason and Sir Alex Ferguson, so hopefully this is the plan, and this unexposed 5yo could just take advantage of the ground and withdrawals.

At 25/1 (he is that price across the board), I am paying to find out. He ran okay here when fourth over 2m3f on his debut for the yard, hitting evens in the run before his effort petered out, so maybe this is his trip.

I also wonder whether Skelton will re-apply the hood his horse wore for his two wins in France, but maybe he will keep that angle up his sleeve for Newbury.

Bristol De Mai, Minella Drama, Dusart, Five Star Getaway, Regal Encore, Sam Brown and Small Present are also entered elsewhere this week, and they account for seven of the 13 five-day entries in the Peter Marsh at 14:40, while French Paradoxe is also in the aforementioned Skybet Chase in 11 days time.

I can leave that race alone and the same holds true for the Portman Cup at Taunton at 15:17, a race that has attracted just seven entries. Of the septet, Slipway (a 7/2 chance here) and Moroder are declared overnight for Wincanton on Thursday and The Wolf is also in at Ascot on Saturday,

Back on Thursday, probably. Good luck.