There are no early closers taking place this weekend, so bookmakers and punters go into Saturday's racing with a clean slate, and that is quite refreshing.
The fact that ITV are showing three races from Wolverhampton - and I fully accept that the two 0-105 handicaps and the Listed contest are decent fare and will float bigger boats than mine - tells you everything you need to know about the pre-Cheltenham strength of the racing.
That said, Sandown's Imperial Cup has long been a recognisable name in the racing calendar.
The going at the Esher track is currently soft on the hurdles track and good to soft (soft in places) over chases, and there are varied forecasts for the week, from Thursday onwards.
So let's keep it simple at the moment and work with the going assessment on Saturday as soft. Saying that, I always look for a proven heavy ground performer whatever the official going is on the Sandown hurdles track. It's a real grueler.
Nightmare to price up
The Imperial Cup (14:25) can house a maximum of 22 runners on Saturday and, unlike far more valuable handicaps like the Betfair Hurdle and Coral Trophy this season, it has attracted a mammoth 35 entries at the five-day stage and looks like filling on the day.
The sheer numbers involved obviously make it very hard to call at this stage, and the fact that so many could sidestep the engagement and be saved for Cheltenham next week (as well as the list of double-entered horses this week) makes it even tougher from an ante-post perspective.
For bookmakers as well as punters, and I don't blame all the layers for pricing it up very defensively.
The obvious starting point is last year's winner Langer Dan, who trades at around 11/2 on the Exchange for next week's Martin Pipe at the Festival.
How do you go about pricing him up?
Last year's winner is only 2lb higher than when chasing home a certain, then 142-rated Galopin Des Champs in the Martin Pipe last season - the third was nine lengths further back - after the handicapper came bearing gifts after his Taunton reappearance last month, dropping him 3lb for that pipe-opener (his first run since March).
So you would be justified in sticking him in very short here. Don't remember the winner gets 19k more for winning this race than that conditional jockeys' race next week (I am not sure if last year's 50k bonus for winning both races still stands), and this will arguably be easier to win.
But will connections pass up this opportunity and go straight to Cheltenham unburdened by the 5lb penalty he would pick up for winning this? On a strict weights and measures basis it cost them a Festival winner last year, as he was beaten just 2 ¼ lengths under a 5lb penalty.
In short, he is a nightmare to price up.
I wrote this part of my article at 14:47 on Monday before any prices had come out, and I had 5/2 in my head, even with the running doubts factored in. I'd certainly rather go low than big about him as he is undoubtedly exceedingly well-handicapped and is treading a similar path as to when winning this last year, after an eye-popping prep at Market Rasen.
Of course, that kind of price wouldn't interest me in the slightest in such a massive likely field - incidentally, the first firm up soon after made him a 5s chance, with 13/2 (became 11/2) available soon after - and maybe we are looking at his last-of-six at Taunton with rose-tinted spectacles, seeing more promise (and a plot) in the run than there actually was.
Then again, the Betfair Sportsbook pretty much agreed with me and their first show about him was 3/1.
Based on what I learned just before this article went live, however, it sounds as if Dan Skelton is going to keep Langer Dan for Cheltenham, and miss Sandown, so do not back him now.
What I am trying to say is that his presence amongst the 35 entries makes this even more of a minefield at the ante-post stage, especially as you can bet your bottom dollar you will be getting five or six places (seven anyone?) if 22 go to the post on Saturday.
It is not hard to see credible contenders coming at you from every angle here though, and each-way punters will need every place going.
With that in mind, I am very happy to sit this one out for now, and go in fresh after Thursday's decs, especially as we may have a better handle on the ground and an updated weather forecast.
A couple in particular did catch my eye but I may as well keep them to myself - - and, by the way, I wasn't in the least surprised to see course winner Samarrive cut from 20s to 10s with the Betfair Sportsbook on Monday, as he was bang on the radar - as I strongly suspect they will be a similar price if and when entered on Thursday.
Fingers crossed for Nicholls' Knappers
The 2m4f EBF Final at 1.50pm has also attracted a very healthy 20 entries, and my no-show Morebattle ante-tip Current Mood is in here. But she also has entries in the Imperial Cup and a mares' handicap at Hereford, so she is untippable at 12/1, for all I think her mark of 127 is generous.
This race actually has shades of the Imperial Cup about it, as you have to wonder - will 6/1 poke Knappers Hill run here or will connections wait for the Martin Pipe with him as well?
Paul Nicholls is worried about getting a run at Cheltenham for him given he is number 60 in the weights there, but @antepostpunter pointed out on Twitter that those actually numbered 71, 59 and 99 at this stage in the last three years got in, so there is plenty of hope for the Ditcheat man.
So will Nicholls, who incidentally acknowledged the above tweet with a crossed fingers emoji (I had someone explain it to me) run him at Sandown or take the gamble and wait for Cheltenham? Or both?
If he does run, then the horse probably just about has a favourite's chance here, as his sixth in the Betfair Hurdle over 2m last time screamed that a step up in trip was needed, and a mark of 135 looks very workable for him, for all he was beaten over six lengths off it at Newbury. He may ideally want better ground but he did win on soft at Ascot in an impressive, unbeaten bumper campaign.
That 6/1 is short enough, given the doubt.
Of the other market leaders, the 9/2 jolly Thunder Rock (who has three entries at Cheltenham) has a very likeable profile, and he is just 6lb higher than when beating Dorking Boy at Huntingdon last time. The pair pulled a mile clear of the third and the runner-up was just chinned off a 2lb higher mark at Newbury last week.
Throw in the fact that this progressive 6yo also has a win on heavy ground to his name, and he has to be on everyone's shortlist.
However, he has been well found in the Betfair market and then some at 9/2, so I again make no apologies for waiting until Thursday before having a bet here.
I won't be playing until the overnight decs are in, so I am not recommending an ante-post bet.
Mullenbeg means business in bumper
I am happy to ignore the three Wolverhampton all-weather races for now - best to be honest, they are not my bag and I don't follow the racing, and likely running plans, closely enough to be putting up ante-post bets there - and the Sandown bumper at 15:00 is hardly my usual cuppa, either.
Saying that, I was hugely taken by Mullenbeg's win at Cheltenham last time. She took off close home there - she looked like she had been electronically zapped by Christopher Walken in that horsey Bond film - and she looks a proper tool who wouldn't be out of place in the Cheltenham bumper, hence she is just a 13/8 chance here.
But therein lies the problem yet again. Milton Harris could easily save her for next week. This Cheltenham lark casts a fair old shadow.
Sandown's 2m4f novices' handicap chase at 15:35pm completes Saturday's ITV Seven, and it is yet another well-supported race with 18 five-day entries. Good to see the numbers returning with a vengeance for a good meeting with decent pots.
But, as with the other races, I can't see a bet - 12 horses are priced up at 10s or shorter, with Adrimel heading the market at 5/1 - and I am not willing to force it.
Please find the list of double-entered horses this week below.
Back on Thursday, when you can be assured I will be far more active punting-wise, probably on horses trading at similar odds to they are now, with a better idea of the likely ground, and with those juicy extra places thrown in.
Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey.
Go well until then.
Double-entered horses in ITV races this Saturday
13:50 Sandown - Current Mood, Georges Saint, Jungle Jack, Kayf Hernando, Marble Sands, Our Jet, Mumbo Jumbo
14:25 Sandown - Current Mood, Farmer's Gamble (not double-entered but finished unplaced at Southwell on Monday), Fontana Ellissi (not double-entered but finished fourth at Wetherby on Monday), Lively Citizen, Our Jet, Playful Saint (won at Wetherby on Monday after a three-year lay-off), The Grey Falco, West To The Bridge (due to run at Sandown on Tuesday)
15:00 Sandown - Mistral Nell
15:35 Sandown - Chinwag, Emir Sacree, Eragon Du Chanay (due to run at Sandown on Tuesday), Galop De Chasse (due to run at Sandown on Tuesday), Killer Kane, Mahler's Promise, Seven No Trumps (not double-entered but finished third at Wetherby on Monday)
13:31 Wolverhampton - Recall The Show (Thu)
14:05 Wolverhampton - Intuitive, Mykonos St John, Stone Soldier, Theotherside (currently entered on Thursday), Visibility (due to run at Wolverhampton on Tuesday)
14:40 Wolverhampton - Stone Soldier
Profit and Loss (since April 14)
Staked: 302pts
Returns 496.06
P/L: + 194.06