- 7/2, 20/1 and 12/1 selections from Daryl Carter
- A weekly round-up
- One to watch for the short term
The long road to the Cheltenham Festival starts here, and a big thank you to Betfair for having me for a second year! This column will run until the start of the Cheltenham Festival.
For the new readers, the idea behind the column is to keep a diary of the action over the year to put us in the best possible punting position for the festival itself. We will delve into sectional timings and form and have solid opinions whilst looking to grab some value in the Betfair Sportsbook ante-post markets.
Ok, let's get cracking!
Weekly round-up
Marine Nationale hype is all too soon
It's October, so naturally, we have not seen too many horses with a realistic chance at the Cheltenham Festival 2023 thus far. Marine Nationale was the first of three worth highlighting that caught the public attention when scoring on hurdle debut at Punchestown on October 12th in effortless fashion.
He scored on bumper debut at Punchestown over an impressive 11-length point-to-point winner and well-touted favourite Demandrivingdouvan of Gordon Elliott's. That form worked out in the short term but now has a shakey jake look to it, as does the point-to-point form of the beaten favourite with no RPR in that field recorded above 86 (previous or since).
There was little doubt that Marine Nationale was a good winner, and he duly obliged next time at Killarney in a small field contest at odds-on. Again, that form looks a little desperate, but he won in a canter. Still, it should be acknowledged that the Willie Mullins runner (2/1 second favourite) finished lame and failed to give his running, while his other two rivals will do well to achieve a rating above 100.
He backed up his two bumper victories with a solid hurdle debut here. The visual impression was that he looked like a useful type for trainer Barry Connell, but again, the form looks very suspect to me. The second and third were seven and ten race maidens while the fourth was making his debut over hurdles. The fourth could be key to this form, having previously shown some promise in bumpers, including chasing home Albert Bartlett winner The Nice Guy on debut. That would be the only significant runner in the race, as the fifth, sixth and seventh were all fairly exposed maidens, having had four and five starts over hurdles.
When the form looks suspect, it's always best to look to the clock to see what a prospect has achieved. In this case, it was nothing.
Marine Nationale won with a good bit in hand, but he did come off the bridle here and was asked for an effort after the last to put the race to bed. The 100-rated Well Funded ran a circuit time of 2.2 seconds or 8.8 lengths quicker on the same card and was 0.06secs quicker from the third last to the line.
For now, though, his form doesn't look up to scratch, and neither does his time figure, so it was astonishing that he was cut into 16/1 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle across the board on that back of this run. However, time is on his side.
Springwell Bay will not run in the Supreme! Save your cash!
Jonjo O'Neill's Springwell Bay was an eye-catching purchase from Margaret Mullins last November after being narrowly touched off in a bumper by the now 137-rated Adamantly Chosen. He bolted up on his first start for the yard at Market Rasen, recording an RPR of 121 (just 7lb shy of Facile Vega's debut).
He made his hurdling debut on October 13th at Carlisle to win by three lengths over point-to-point winner Ioens of Dan Skelton's, who was an eye-catcher. Interestingly, the Racing Post analysis team comment said that the very slow comparative time was "largely irrelevant", which is never true in any circumstance - it's valuable information!
He jumped slightly to the right at a few obstacles but straightened out the further he went, and ultimately he was well positioned to strike. Visually he gave the impression that it was easy work, but I would slightly disagree, given his shortening stride length towards the finish. He looks dominant on his right fore, which could pose an issue left-handed and the form of the runner-up's point-to-point victory is very questionable.
His circuit time was 56.80 lengths slower than the 96-rated exposed hurdle winner on the card, although he was 14 lengths faster from two out to the finish to suggest he could have run a good deal quicker but perhaps will be well suited by a longer trip which would concur with his pedigree - this is why it's not "irrelevant". He is closely related to Mint Condition and Winning Rascal, who ended up over 3m but stepped up in trip on their second start over hurdles.
He is not in the betting for any of the festival Novice races, and it perhaps one more for a big handicap this season over a middle-distance trip.
Cheltenham Showcase meeting
There was little to pick up on Friday with a view to the Cheltenham Festival. Perhaps Music Drive would be possible for a 3m handicap down the line after staying on strongly, but I thought the Friday lacked any severe depth.
There was a bit more to Saturday, starting with the 3m Novices' Hurdle won by Shearer. This is not form to go over the top with. Still, he is a lovely horse and will certainly make into a better chaser than a hurdler. I saw him last year at Wincanton - he is a picture to look at. It would be no surprise should he continue to improve this season and make up into an Albert Bartlett horse - similar to owner-mate Threeunderthrufive - but whether or not he will be able to compete with some of the Irish runners remains to be seen.
Pied Piper kept connections' dream alive of a Champion Hurdle run, for which he is now a 15.014/1 chance. He ran well but won as he should over Knight Salute, and again this is not form to be going mad about. Interesting comments after the race from Milton Harris on runner-up Knight Salute. He said,
"Now we'll go away and decide whether to go down the Elite Hurdle route or take him over to France, which is something I'd like to try at some stage, because I wouldn't want to ask him to run off 146 in a handicap over here."
Before his run, connections were talking of a Champion Hurdle campaign, but if he doesn't think his horse can win a handicap off of 146, then his chances of a Champion Hurdle run, let alone victory, are somewhat ambitious.
Shoot First was a well-handicapped winner of the Pertemps Qualifier for Charles Burns. The final will be his target. Botox Has is almost certainly one to keep in mind when he goes over fences, and An Tailliur should have a promising season. The eye-catcher was Silver Sheen, who will surely improve for the run.
Chemical Energy dotted up in the three-runner Novice Chase, and he looks very versatile in terms of trip, and he could easily now be plotted for a big handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. It's hard to know what to make of the form with Life In The Park underperforming, but he is a promising recruit to fences.
Short term one To Watch!
Mrs Jane Williams ran In Rem in a Novices' Chase at Worcester on October 19th and shaped well on his chase debut for a long way. A prolific improver over hurdles last season and far better than the bare result here. Keep him on side for the short term.
Ante-post selections
Back Vega for Facile Ballymore victory
One of the first bets I wanted to get on this column was Facile Vega 4.57/2 for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle. Champion Bumper winners don't have a terrific record in the Supreme Novice Hurdle and horses of Willie's like Coolrevy, Tornado Flyer, Blow By Blow, Bellshill, Shaneshill and even the sole Supreme winner Champagne Fever all ended up over middle-distance or staying trips.
There was even talk about Kilcruit going for the Ballymore last season until he put in a poor showing at Christmas.
I would be amazed if he ran in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, given his pedigree is layered with stamina, and he has won a heavy ground Cheltenham Bumper.
He outstayed stablemate Redemption Day at Punchestown, and there was plenty of talk from the camp last term that suggested it was hard to split them. Redemption Day is all speed, and he is unlikely to be the one that diverts - similar to Sir Gerhard last term, it looks almost certain to be Facile Vega.
If that is the case, then this class act will set a fair bar for the others to aim at, and while he will likely be one of the shortest-priced horses in this column, he could easily go off a shade of odds-on on the day.
Champ Kiely excites me for Albert Bartlett
Champ Kiely has seriously impressed me in three starts to date, and he looks like a good bet at this stage for the Albert Bartlett at 21.020/1 - the best price with Betfair.
He won a bumper at Limerick on debut under Jody Townend, for which her comments after the race were, "He was doing all the right things at home and please God, he is another nice one." The form of that race is nothing to shout about, but he returned to the track on the back of a 14-month absence on hurdle debut to wipe the floor with his rivals at Galway by 21 lengths over 2m5f eased down.
Now the form of that hurdle debut is very eye-catching. In second was a solid 116-rated handicapper of Peter Fahey's, and in third was the 102 flat-rated Dawn Rising - both horses won the next time out, and Dawn Rising recorded an RPR of 141 when scoring by eight lengths.
Compared to stablemate Rock Road, a solid 130 (should be higher) horse over hurdles and 137 over fences, he was 11 lengths faster on the first circuit, six lengths faster on the final circuit and five lengths faster from three out to the finish. He carried six pounds more on his back and was ridden under no more than hand and heels to win this eased down. It was a taking performance.
Compared to the 2m handicap hurdle winner, who scored off of 111 and is now rated 121, he was three lengths faster on the final circuit carrying 22lbs more having run five furlongs further.
There was plenty to like about the Galway performance! Form, tick, visuals, tick, clock, tick, but he would need to do something similar again to prove to be on the radar for Cheltenham. He did!
He dropped back to 2m for his stiffest assignment yet at Tipperary to win the Grade 3 Woodlands House by 4 1/2 lengths over last season's Cheltenham Festival Juvenile Handicap Hurdle winner Brazil rated 142. It could be said that the runner-up needed the outing, but Champ Kiely again won this under hand and heels. He set a relentless gallop from start to finish, for which he ran out a 12.40 lengths faster overall time than Jessie Evans' Grade 3 win.
Interestingly, Jessie Evans was much faster three out to the finish than Champ Kiely. Still, his relentless early pace and ability to maintain it to the line with plenty in the tank suggest he is almost certainly a staying Novice this season.
Willie Mullins had won this race with the likes of Shewearsitwell (137) in 2020, and despite Champ Kiely running on slower ground, he was 11 lengths faster. Willie Mullins has also run the likes of 2017 Albert Bartlett winner Penhill in this race in the past, and it's interesting that the trainer also run the same horse at the Galway meeting that saw Champ Kiely win by 21 lengths.
You need speed to win an Albert Bartlett, but he is almost certainly a stayer on the evidence of my speed figures. Willie Mullins will have an array of young horses to choose from for the 2m division, and I am pretty sure Facile Vega will be his Ballymore horse which only leaves the Albert Bartlett for this one should he continue his improvement.
I already have him rated in the region of 146 - that's three pounds higher than Penhill going into the Albert Bartlett and the average rating of a winner in the last ten years is 146.8.
We are yet to see him asked for maximum effort off the bridle, and we are yet to see him over three miles and he has only had two hurdles starts - he could have any amount to come.
Back class-act The Storyteller for hunters glory
Gordon Elliott confirmed in his stable tour that The Storyteller 13.012/1 is back in training and in "tremendous form" and potentially being targetted at the Hunters Chase at Cheltenham, for which he is a very fair 13.012/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook.
I am not a huge fan of listening to comments from trainers, given their biased opinions, but it was unusual for Elliott to reveal a spring target, and he will become a buzz horse once he runs in a point-to-point in the coming weeks.
There was plenty of talk on social media about his stablemate Samcro heading to the same race, but he is not qualified to run in the contest this term thanks to his Grade 2 second place at Navan behind Notebook in November 2021. Here are the qualifying terms.
On or after October 1st 2021, has been placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in any Grade 1 or 2 Steeple Chase in Great Britain or Ireland or in any other Steeple Chase outside in which the opinion of the authority is equivalent.
The Storyteller is, though. His last chase saw him pull up lame at Listowel, but before that had finished a two-length second to Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February 2021. To expect the force of old from him at the age of 11 would be folly but even if he was to run to a rating of 150 - which is easily 15 pounds below his peak rating - he would have won eight of the last ten renewals. He is a bit of a swing bet at this stage, but this class act could easily be a very short price once scoring in a point-to-point in the coming weeks, and he would have a fabulous chance at a track that has seen him excel over the years.