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Smith chaser the one to be with in Welsh Grand National at Chepstow
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Big price at 16/117.00 looks worth an each-way shot on Saturday
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Saturday 27th Chepstow 14:50 Coral Welsh Grand National: Back O'Connell @ 7/18.00
This is our final antepost instalment before the year is out and the "zoning in" happens to be at Chepstow for the festive feature, the Coral Welsh Grand National.
In days gone by this meeting was a mudfest. Not so perhaps this year, as while the going is soft as I write (on Tuesday), no rain is forecast for the rest of Christmas week.
The race has caused me serious angst as several of my favourites are all entered. Grand old Mr Vango, who ran such a stoic race in the Becher is entered, as is Haiti Couleurs, the big home hope who flopped so badly last time. Plus former winner Nassalam who currently has plenty of p letters next to his name.
But the new horse I divert my loving gaze at is O'Connell, a runner for the revitalised Sue Smith yard and a big player at 7/18.00. The 8s had gone by 14:00 on Tuesday.
This race has been the plan for what seems like an age. "It's all systems go for the Welsh National for O'Connell," said Smith this week. "He's in the form of his life and he's improved again. The ground and the trip will suit. The only negative is it's left-handed but he ran very well in the Eider last season when second on ground that didn't suit. He's grown up now as well - he's a man not a boy - and he'll handle going that way better. He's in great shape and we've got to have a go."
I watched with interest his season's return at Carlisle, when I thought he'd need the run badly. He finished third and the performance surprised Smith and her assistant Joel Parkinson, who ran better than they had hoped.
There was no mistake last time at Sandown in the Betfair Exchange London National, a thoroughly emphatic staying performance that never looked in doubt the whole way around. He's still a relatively young horse in terms of hard races, and he's 5-16 over fences with four seconds and relies on his staying powers and terrific jumping.
It was good to soft at Sandown, and from a new mark around the mid-130s, he is still extremely well handicapped and weighted for a big run on Saturday. Hopefully the prize is heading to Yorkshire. The Betfair Sportsbook are four places too at this stage and he's an each-way price for sure.
Back O'Connell in the 14:50 at Chepstow
Saturday 27th Chepstow 13:05: Back Rath Gaul Hill E/W @ 16/117.00
The Welsh National takes preference so now we can revert to looking at the races in chronological order with the 13:05 Coral Racing Club 'Join For Free' Handicap Chase over 2m.
Siam Park for Joe Tizzard is one of four last-time-out-winners in the field at entries stage off the back of an easy win at Plumpton.
This demands more in terms of opposition and class, and I would have a slight worry with the pick and majority of his form on good ground.
Jour d'Evasion and Passing Kate have form tied in with each other from last time at Bangor in heavy conditions, but they were only rated 117 and 108 there to finish first and second, which is hardly a race to have this business in their pockets.
If there's any race priced up for Chepstow with the potential for a surprise, this could be it. Rath Gaul Hill is chalked up at 16/117.00 and could be the answer, as he has been in deeper waters, much deeper waters.
We have to forget a run recently at Newbury, but that was in 0-140 class over fences and he's taking a substantial drop in grade here. Previously he ran at the Grand National meeting in April in the Red Rum. So with Newbury potentially needed as a prep or comeback run last time, he is very much of interest.
He won twice in 2024 on good to soft and soft at Ayr and Newbury respectively, so the long straight at Chepstow will help him, as will the going. Plus he's down to a very feasible 121, and while a horse short of star class, this looks more his bag.
Back Rath Gaul Hill in the 13:05 at Chepstow EW
Saturday 27th Chepstow 14:10: Back Keable @ 4/15.00
Keable was a progressive hurdler last term for the Hobbs and Johnson axis and he picked up where he left off on his return at Newbury this season with a good staying performance.
Indeed, it was the stamina that was key to the success last month in what looked a good quality 3m race.
Sent off a fairly big price at 12/113.00 considering his profile, he always sat second tracking the front runner and jumped solidly for the whole way. However, it was entering the straight where I admired the win the most. He was pushed and shaken up, and probably was at the point he hit around 17/118.00 in-running, but he got back on the bridle to win.
He beat Dan Skelton's Blue Carpet, who had previously scored by 8L, and the third and fifth were also previous winners.
The ground was described as soft that day, but times suggested more good to soft. That does provide hope that any sort of going with soft in there somewhere will not hinder as he looked very good last term on genuine testing ground.
Hobbs and White have enjoyed the most success numerically with their hurdlers with 11-87 this season and often send some of their better horses out to Wales.
Backing all of my selections in an each-way treble this weekend pays a whopping 679/1680.00 for those in a braver mood. And don't forget the great Betfair offer over the Boxing Day weekend on multis with the Money Back As A Free Bet Multis Offer.
Back Keable in the 14:05 at Chepstow