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Sandown 16/1 selection
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Boardman to make his move in Lincoln Trial
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Seven ITV4 races this weekend
I am standing in for Tony Calvin again this week, and a little later than usual for a Tuesday. While we're in very much in Cheltenham mode, I have always personally enjoyed this week as Sandown's Military Gold Cup day is an afternoon I've attended before, maybe it's because when I first got into racing, myself and my best pal were drawn to Capt D Alers Hankey - a rider who made Ahmed Ajtebi look like Steve Cauthen in the saddle.
It's a week with a bit of everything, and glancing the Wolverhampton card for Saturday got the punting juices flowing with some serious horses to look forward to. Having dealt with the same All-Weather runners beating each other week in week out, the Lincoln Trial and Lady Wilfruna are races marking the winds of change.
And with the Betfair Imperial Cup for Saturday at Sandown - weather permitting, we're in for a good weekend.
Dealing with the weather firstly, it looks bleak either way. Even for Cheltenham we could be facing plenty of rain or plain old rain depending on which forecast, and we've got the added problem of creeping freezing temperatures.
The Grand Military Cup card on Tuesday had some good in the description, and it would have taken Eddie Shoestring to find any decent ground as it looked bottomless to me. Indeed, horses were finishing legless and the final winner of the day for Tom Lacey on Tuesday was a proven soft ground performer.
Time for Jonjo to return to form?
I think the best place to start is with Sandown for Saturday and the Betfair Imperial Cup, a race that has surprisingly eluded Paul Nicholls with just one win in the big handicap in the last 10 years. His old foe Martin Pipe used to plunder the prize on plenty of occasions. The champion trainer had three entered at the time of writing - including the top weight Samarrive from 145.
Samarrive is a 9/1 poke, although with five places on the Sportsbook, I am hoping we can have a crack at something a little bigger.
At that sort of price I prefer the claims of Dan Skelton anyway, as I am working on the basis that the weekend could be quite testing. And of course the hurdles' track is always a bit deeper anyway.
Playful Saint ran a cracker to Love Envoi at Sandown in December, and while he was getting plenty of weight from Harry Fry's winner, that was a serious piece of form behind the 139-rated Love Envoi.
He has since won at Leicester when taking a drop in class - winning by 12L in heavy. With conditions in mind and track form, I'd keep Playful Saint onside as a win only bet at the price. I think he'll last a bit better than Le Milos (pocket talking).
Playful Saint also has an entry, like many do for next week and is in the County Hurdle betting at 25/1 on the Sportsbook with NRNB.
Another with a County Hurdle entry next week is Jonjo O'Neill's Soaring Glory, and as a previous Betfair Hurdle winner, I think he looks an each-way chance for this at 16/1.
The elephant in the room is the stable form as Jonjo has barely had a winner this month (one in two weeks), but if he's going to turn a corner, he knows this week is better than most.
Soaring Glory's brief dalliance with fences is over, and a return to hurdles last time for only his second run of the season was at least encouraging.
He is a most troublesome horse to work out. He makes mistakes at crucial points (and made an error last time), but then he can travel ever so sweetly, and sometimes kid you into not finding as much.
However, he goes well in big fields, he acts in soft conditions and the handicapper is giving him more of a chance these days from a mark of 143.
Play it again Sam for a bumper
The EBF Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race gives a chance for the Bumper horses to take centre stage on the ITV cameras, although I am aware Bumpers aren't everybody's cup of tea, and some will be taking stage left for half an hour.
Alfie's Princess interests me as a horse for the future for Sam Thomas, and I was surprised she was as big as 16/1 on Tuesday evening.
Of course any amount of improvement can come from these mares from first to second start, and second to third, and she was well backed for her Huntingdon debut in December.
She's been off since, and had the wind surgery prior to her debut, but that didn't help too much as she was far too keen. She cost a ton of money at the Cheltenham Festival Sales last season, and with the break and that first run under her belt, if she settles, she can run better than her price suggests.
Wad to keep a lid on his enthusiasm?
Sandown's two Premier Handicap races should have decent-sized fields, in particular the 13:50 2m4f European Breeders' Fund Betfair 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final .
The talented but wayward Blow Your Wad is another 16/1 price, although on his run last time he'd be double that and more as he bombed out. But it was in the Grade 1 Tolworth, and considering that race is often quite a test, it appeared too much for him.
Tom Lacey's form is picking up as he has fired three winners from his last 13 runners at the time of writing, and for his handicap debut from 125, that looks a gettable mark.
He travelled superbly at Ascot in October, and there's a good horse in there somewhere. The 5yo could have a touch of the Danny Kirwans about him, but I do think the 2m4f is his sort of trip.
A big field at a more searching gallop should help him to settle too and with five places, he's another each-way chance.
The other ITV race is the 15:35 Betfair Daily Multiples Offer At Cheltenham Novices' Handicap Chase and another Premier Handicap.
Potentially we might not have as many runners in comparison to the hurdles' races, and on Tuesday night with the ante-post prices, the 5/2 on the Venetia Williams-trained Easy As That doesn't do much for me.
Williams isn't exactly firing in winners left, right and centre and had a fancied chaser run quite flat at Sandown on Military Gold Cup day - at a short price too.
I tallied up her winners for the season this week, and 30 so far seems down, although 22 have been over fences and is 2-14 at Sandown this term.
Easy As That is progressive, and fast too with a 2-3 record so far over fences. His jumping at Newcastle last month was excellent, really assured. And in comparison to his chase debut, it seems he has come back a transformed model.
He still looks better than a 142-horse, and with two wins at an aggregate of 17L, he could be some sight jumping around Sandown.
Williams at 1-22 does temper the enthusiasm, but you have to come off the cold list sooner or later....unless you're Paul Webber.
Sire stats point to big Boardman run
On with the Wolverhampton action and a race I remember for the wrong reasons with the Lincoln Trial, as a wonderful little horse called Flowing Cape for Reg Hollinshead owned by Andrew Marriott ran in this in 2009 without success. He was a handy performer and went well at Wolverhampton, but sadly got fatally injured later on in his career.
There are three ITV races from Wolves on Saturday and the 14:05 Lincoln Trial Handicap is a super race, with the top weight on 104 at the time of writing.
Dealing with the draw ante-post is never easy, especially at Wolverhampton. In my last ante-post preview standing in for TC, I flagged up Miss Nay Never at 3/1 in the week, then she was drawn in 10 at Lingfield and went out to 10s come raceday, but still ran remarkably well from such a poor berth.
John Gosden has a Godolphin project with the recent dual-Lingfield scorer Unforgotten, who looks well in from 94 and his form has been boosted only on Tuesday night with Farasi Lane winning a decent prize.
Boardman at 14/1 is an interesting one considering he's only had one start on the All-Weather and is a proper Saturday handicapper for Tim Easterby. He's by Kingman, and is certainly worth a shot at the surface on the sire stats, as Kingman is 23% win and 44% placed at Wolverhampton.
Those stats are even higher at the Wolves distance with a 48% placed rate.
He was second in the Ripon Rowels last term from a similar mark, but he looked superb at Chester last May when scoring from 93. The fact he has form at sharp tracks as those two bodes well, and he is my each-way play with the five places on the Sportsbook.
I really do like those Kingman stats.
In the following Lady Wilfruna Stakes at 14:40, Noble Dynasty is a horse I like. He's a 5/2 favourite though, and in keeping with the column, I have tried to dig out something at a more attractive price.
He is 2-2 on the AW and his two wins at Newmarket (one from the front) last season put him in excellent shape for this for Charlie Appleby. I am amazed he didn't go to Dubai, but it's hard getting in that Appleby squad of 250 runners.
The 5yo is lightly-raced still, and Appleby at Wolverhampton from 291 runners holds a 32% win and 60% place - which is not bad.
Tony is back for Saturday's ITV column, and we're all back for Cheltenham.