US PGA Championship 2025: Two picks from Dave Tindall in his early look at Quail Hollow

• Rory McIlroy has won four times at host course Quail Hollow

• 50/151.00 Sam Burns has been a regular winner on Tour

• 33/134.00 Patrick Cantlay is improving in the Majors

Tournament: The 2025 US PGA Championship
When: May 15-18
Where: Quail Hollow Golf Club, North Carolina
How to watch: All four days live on Sky Sports

Last year's US PGA was at Valhalla, the scene of Rory McIlroy's most recent Major win in 2014.

It looked a good opportunity for Rory to end his drought but he had to settle for tied 12th, nine strokes adrift of winner Xander Schauffele.

But Quail Hollow looks an even better opportunity for the Northern Irishman given his phenomenal record at the course in the Wells Fargo Championship.

Rory has four wins (2010, 2015, 2021 and 2024, the latest by five shots) as well as five other top 10s.

However, he could only manage 22nd when Quail Hollow staged the 2017 PGA Championship won by Justin Thomas.

But there's another however. That 2017 tournament was held in August; this year it's staged in May, the same month as the Wells Fargo so McIlroy gets to play at the time of year when he's racked up those four victories.

Let's delve into the history books.

2017 US PGA Championship

1. Justin Thomas (OTT 22nd, APP 16th, ATG 22nd, TTG 11th, PUTT 4th)
2. Francesco Molinari (OTT 15th, APP 27th, ATG 29th, TTG 14th, PUTT 5th)
2. Louis Oosthuizen (OTT 45th, APP 3rd, ATG 7th, TTG 2nd, PUTT 22nd)
2. Patrick Reed (OTT 28th, APP 17th, ATG 13th, TTG 8th, PUTT 11th)
5. Rickie Fowler (OTT 21st, APP 36th, ATG 19th, TTG 17th, PUTT 8th)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (OTT 16th, APP 20th, ATG 28th, TTG 12th, PUTT 12th)

On that evidence, putting was important while it's slightly surprising at this level that only one of the top six ranked in the top 15 for SG: Approach.

2022 Presidents Cup - USA 17.5-12.5 Internationals - September 22-25

Top US points scorers:

5pts Jordan Spieth
4pts Justin Thomas, Max Homa
3pts Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele

Top International points scorers:

3pts Si-Woo Kim
2.5pts Sungjae Im, Sebastian Munoz

How important results are from a different format played in September is open to debate but it can't hurt.

Also worth checking are the top performers in the last three editions of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.

2024

1. Rory McIlroy (OTT 1st, APP 4th, ATG 9th, TTG 1st, PUTT 8th)
2. Xander Schauffele (OTT 2nd, APP 1st, ATG 27th, TTG 2nd, PUTT 25th)
3. Byeong Hun An (OTT 10th, APP 10th, ATG 50th, TTG 14th, PUTT 1st)
4. Jason Day (OTT 37th, APP 35th, ATG 1st, TTG 9th, PUTT 10th)
4. Sungjae Im (OTT 24th, APP 30th, ATG 23rd, TTG 23rd, PUTT 4th)

2023

1. Wyndham Clark (OTT 21st, APP 1st, ATG 39th, TTG 2nd, PUTT 3rd)
2. Xander Schauffele (OTT 3rd, APP 21st, ATG 13th, TTG 4th, PUTT 12th)
3. Harris English (OTT 61st, APP 2nd, ATG 16th, TTG 11th, PUTT 11th)
3. Tyrrell Hatton (OTT 29th, APP 7th, ATG 6th, TTG 3rd, PUTT 32nd)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (OTT 19th, APP 11th, ATG 27th, TTG 5th, PUTT 24th)
5. Adam Scott (OTT 37th, APP 12th, ATG 41st, TTG 18th, PUTT 9th)

2022

1. Rory McIlroy (OTT 18th, APP 10th, ATG 41st, TTG 9th, PUTT 3rd)
2. Abraham Ancer (OTT 8th, APP 1st, ATG 46th, TTG 1st, PUTT 34th)
3. Viktor Hovland (OTT 6th, APP 20th, ATG 39th, TTG 7th, PUTT 13th)
3. Keith Mitchell (OTT 2nd, APP 11th, ATG 71st, TTG 6th, PUTT 20th)
5. Gary Woodland (OTT 14th, APP 22nd, ATG 24th, TTG 8th, PUTT 18th)

Quail Hollow in 2025

The course is a tree-lined par 71 and measures over 7,500 yards. On the stats above, an all-round game is required.

McIlroy was in the top 10 for all the main Strokes Gained categories when winning in 2024 while Clark was in the top three for Approach, Tee To Green and Putting when triumphant in 2023.

Back Sam Burns @ 50/151.00

It's fair to say that Sam Burns has taken a while to crack the code in Majors.

Up until last year's US Open, he'd missed six of 14 cuts and hadn't managed anything better than 20th in this event at Southern Hills.

But ninth place in the US Open was a decent effort and dig a little deeper and he's been in the top 20 after 54 holes in each of the last three editions of the US Open.

He was sixth after 54 holes of the 2024 Wells Fargo and it's a course that should suit. Burns was third behind Scheffler and Schauffele in the All-Around stats last season so he's equipped for the challenge.

It's also fair comment that the US PGA most resembles a regular PGA Tour event so Burns' five wins at that level bode well, as do the timings.

Two of his five victories have come in May - 2021 Valspar and 2022 Charles Schwab - and with two more in March he has a strong record at this time of year.

One final note is that Burns become a father for the first time last April and the Wells Fargo was the first event he played after his son's birth. Happy memories and all that.

Back Patrick Cantlay @ 33/134.00

Americans are good at Majors - they swept the board in 2024 - and they've won the last nine US PGAs.

If talking about next cabs off the rank when it comes to winninng one, Patrick Cantlay must be near the front of the queue.

I've tended to view him as a big disappointment at this level and two top fives in 31 starts is pretty awful for a player of his talent.

But looking at the last 10, he has a third, an eighth, a ninth, three 14ths and two other top 25s. That's a decent body of work.

The third came in last year's US Open when he made a genuine run at the title and going close in a major is always money in the bank when trying to get it done next time.

In the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow, Cantlay won three points out of four, including a 3&2 win over Adam Scott in the singles, and although he's played the Wells Fargo just once, 29th last year was decent enough.

The 33/134.00 right now could easily shorten if he shows up strongly at Augusta and plays well at the start of 2025.

Beyond the two picks, it may well be that the top three in the betting will be very difficult to keep off the podium.

Right now (December 23rd), the market reads 11/26.50 Scottie Scheffler, 8/19.00 Rory McIlroy and 10/111.00 Xander Schauffele. All have fantastic and obvious chances. But realistically how much shorter will they get between now and May? I'll take an opinion on those three nearer the time.

A quick look at the rest of the betting: 12/113.00 Jon Rahm, 14/115.00 Ludvig Aberg, 18/119.00 Collin Morikawa, 22/123.00 Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, 25/126.00 Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, 33/134.00 Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris.

Thomas, given his return to form and past course exploits, certainly looks interesting.

The each-way terms are currently 1/5 Odds, 6 Places.

Read Dave Tindall's ante-post preview of the 2025 Masters

Watch Alan Shearer vs Rachael Blackmore in a very special quiz here!