US PGA Championship 2024: Two picks from Dave Tindall in his early look at Valhalla

• Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods have won at Valhalla

• 40/141.00 Max Homa ended 2023 in impressive style

• 50/151.00 Rickie Fowler was third at Valhalla in 2014

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Tournament: The 2024 US PGA Championship
When: May 16-19
Where: Valhalla Golf Club
How to watch: All four days live on Sky Sports

It's still amazing to think that the most recent of Rory McIlroy's four major wins came in 2014.

The good news is that he recorded it at this year's US PGA venue, Valhalla, so the Northern Irishman should have an extra strut in his stride at the year's second major.

Valhalla also staged the 2000 edition, won by Tiger Woods after a play-off with little-known Bob May, while it was the venue for the USA's 16.5-11.5 victory over Europe in the 2008 Ryder Cup.

Let's delve into the history books.

2014 US PGA Championship

1. Rory McIlroy (DD 1st, DA 10th, GIR 14th, Scr 9th, PA 8th, AA 1st)
2. Phil Mickelson (DD 34th, DA 47th, GIR 42nd, Scr 19th, PA 3rd, AA 20th)
3. Rickie Fowler (DD 6th, DA 31st, GIR 30th, Scr 14th, PA 17th, AA 5th)
3. Henrik Stenson (DD 35th, DA 17th, GIR 13th, Scr 12th, PA 10th, AA 4th)
5. Jim Furyk (DD 69th, DA 3rd, GIR 14th, Scr 2nd, PA 31st, AA 9th
5. Ryan Palmer (DD 5th, DA 66th, GIR 42nd, Scr 19th, PA 11th, AA 19th)

On that evidence, short game counted for plenty while it's a surprise that none of those top six managed better than 13th for Greens In Regulation. A strong all-round game was rewarded.

It looks a strong leaderboard so what were the world rankings of those players at the time?

McIlroy (1), Mickelson (13), Fowler (18), Stenson (4), Furyk 8), Palmer (63). To sum up, five of that half-dozen were in the top 20 in the world rankings.

With Tiger winning in 2000, the last two US PGAs at Valhalla have been won by the World No.1. It's a place where the game's best thrive.

2008 Ryder Cup

Top US points scorers:

3.5pts Hunter Mahan
2.5pts Jim Furyk, Kenny Perry, J.B. Holmes, Anthony Kim, Justin Leonard, Boo Weekley

Top European points scorers:

4pts Ian Poulter
3pts Justin Rose
2.5pts Graeme McDowell

It's worth noting that six years on from good displays at Valhalla in the Ryder Cup, Mahan (tied 7th) and Furyk (tied 5th) showed up strongly in the 2014 US PGA. That's good news for fans of course form. As is Kenny Perry's strong Ryder Cup display given that he'd lost a playoff in the 1996 US PGA at Valhalla.

Valhalla in 2024

The course - a Jack Nicklaus design - is set to play as a 7,765-yard par 72 this year. That's monster length and up from the 7,488 yards of 2014 although that was long at the time too.

Driving Distance springs to mind so here's the end-of-year DD rankings of the top six on the leaderboard in 2014: McIlroy 3rd, Mickelson 70th, Fowler 33rd, Stenson 64th, Furyk 155th, Palmer 23rd.

Length helped - and will surely be an asset this time - although those numbers suggest we don't just limit our search to the top 30 or so longest hitters. Chipping and putting is important too.

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Back Max Homa @ 40/141.00

With the calendar set to flip to 2024, Max Homa sits at World No.7 so odds of 40/141.00 about him winning the US PGA stand out.

The reason for the generous odds we have to suspect is that his record in the majors just hasn't matched his excellence in PGA Tour events; he has six wins since May 2019.

But there are certainly signs that Homa's underwhelming displays at this level are improving.

He was tied 13th in this event in 2022 and last year posted tied 10th in the Open Championship at Hoylake. Small steps but perhaps significant ones.

What I really like about a play on Homa is how he's elevated his game to new heights in the past few months without really having an impact on his price to win here.

While picking off wins on the PGA Tour in familiar locations is commendable, the Californian has shown he can excel on bigger and different stages.

Since that Open top 10 in Liverpool, Homa was the USA's leading points scorer in their Ryder Cup hammering in Italy before he headed to South Africa to capture the DP World Tour's Nedbank Golf Challenge.

Homa looks a threat anywhere now but specifically for Valhalla, he gives it a decent thump off the tee (62nd in DD last year; average 304.8 yards), has a first-class short game, has few weaknesses (ninth in Strokes Gained Total and 10th for All-Around) and boasts fifth and sixth at Memorial in his last two appearances at Jack Nicklaus's Muirfield Village.

If he starts the new campaign the way he finished the old one, the 40s is unlikely to be there come mid-May.

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Back Rickie Fowler @ 50/151.00

Rickie Fowler's resurrection was one of the stories of 2023.

He was the 18, 36, and 54-hole leader in the US Open before finishing fifth and, two starts later, the American ended a four-year win drought by capturing the Travelers Championship.

Fowler is being given plenty of respect in the ante-post US Open market (25s) but here he's twice the price.

Perhaps those much shorter US Open odds are because he was runner-up at this year's course, Pinehurst No.2, in 2014.

But the discrepancy in the prices doesn't really make sense as, that same year, he was tied third on this course.

Fowler made the top five in all four majors that year so possibly he was just riding the wave when playing so well at Valhalla in 2014.

That's one theory but another is that Fowler - with his enjoyment of room off the tee and fast greens - is a great fit for Nicklaus courses. To prove it, he's a double runner-up at Muirfield Village, also making the top 10 there in 2023, while he has another third place in the Match Play at Dove Mountain.

Fowler's form tailed off at the back end of 2023 but if he can find the rhythm he hit last summer - and May is quite a way away so there's time - the 50s could be much shorter when he visits Valhalla for a second time.

Ranking 39th in Driving Distance last season, he certainly has the length off the tee to thrive on the longer version and 12th for SG: Total and 13th for All-Around bodes well too.

With 10 previous top sixes in majors to his name (each-way terms for this bet are 1/5, 6 places), he certainly appeals as an each-way punt and just maybe this could be his time.

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Read Dave Tindall's ante-post US Masters preview here

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