US Open

US Open Find Me a 100 Winner Special: Box-ticking Burns a great price in LA

Golfer Sam Burns
Sam Burns in action

We're off to Los Angeles for the year's third major - the US Open - and our man has two outsiders to trade ahead of Thursday's tee-off...

  • The US Open's a decent major for longshots

  • Two players fancied at a triple-figure prices

  • Read my US Open preview here

Only two of the last 11 editions of the US Open have gone the way of a triple-figure priced outsider. Webb Simpson was a 100.099/1 shot before the off in 2012 and Gary Woodland went off ten points bigger three years ago, but this has still been a decent major for longshots this century.

Following Retief Goosen's success at 50.049/1 in 2004, Michael Campbell, a qualifier at Walton Heath, caused one of the biggest shocks in the tournament's history in 2005 by holding Tiger Woods off at Pinehurst.

Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera won the next two editions at triple-figure prices, as did the 2009 winner, Lucas Glover, and had 650.0649/1 chance, Rocco Mediate, got the better of Tiger Woods in extra-time at Torrey Pines 15 years ago, we'd have witnessed four huge outsiders in-a-row winning.

The 2010 winner, Graeme McDowell, was far from strongly fancied either, so this has been a reasonable event for outsiders over the last 20 years.

I've looked at the stats for the last 12 years at the US Open in my preview and Dave Tindall's done a deep dive into all the trends in his fantastic 10-year trends piece, and one outsider that ticks plenty of boxes is the WGC Match Play winner, Sam Burns.

Back box-ticking Burn at 100.099/1

Offered up at no more than 66/167.00 anywhere on the High Street, the 26-year-old has been matched at as high as 110.0109/1 on the Betfair Exchange today and that's a huge price.

The 26-year-old missed the cut at the Canadian Open last week, which will be part of the reason for the big drift, and his record in majors is nothing to write home about, but there are plenty of positives to outweigh the negatives.

Ranking as high as 15 in the Official World Rankings, Burns has only ordinary US Open numbers reading MC-41-MC-27, but he sat sixth after round one back in 2018 and he was in-the-mix with a round to go 12 months ago - sitting tied for seventh and trailing by just three strokes.

Now a five-time PGA Tour winner, Burns has the long game to compete at Los Angeles Country Club and he also has form at Riviera, the only other course used on the PGA Tour that was designed by George Clifford Thomas Jr.

Burns led the 2021 Genesis Invitational by five strokes at halfway and by two after three rounds before eventually finishing third (beaten by a stroke).

Although he's finished sixth at the Charles Schwab Challenge and sixth at the Valspar Championship when defending both titles, either side of his victory in Houston at the Match Play in March, he's missed three of his last three cuts but that doesn't concern me.

His 2023 figures, reading 32-11-6-MC-MC-35-6-1-29-15-11-MC-MC-6-16-MC, demonstrate perfectly that he's a brilliant but inconsistent player, and he's far too big at anything around 100.099/1.

Back Sam Burns @ 100.099/1 (2U)

Bet now

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Back 120.0119/1 Clark to bag his first major

In contrast to Burns, the consistent Wyndham Clark has missed just one of his last 18 cuts and he had a fair excuse for that given it came at the US PGA Championship last month, just days after he'd won the Wells Fargo Championship in impressive fashion the week before.

Wyndham Clark wins the Wells fargo.jpg

That was Clark's first PGA Tour title, but it will be followed by a second in reasonably quick succession and it may even be this week.

The 29-year-old will have belief in his belly after his victory at Quail Hollow and like Burns, he has form at the Thomas-designed Riviera where he sat second at halfway on debut in 2020.

Clark finished only 17th that year after a disappointing weekend and he was eighth in 2021 and 33rd there this year when not in sparkling form.

Following his weekend off at Oak Hill, the world number 32 was back in-contention around another tough track when he sat alongside the eventual winner, Viktor Hovland, with a round to go in the Memorial Tournament last time out, where he finished 12th after a disappointing 76 on Sunday.

Clark has the length off the tee to compete here and he's ranked first and second for Greens In Regulation in two of his last three starts (the last 12 US Open winners have had an average ranking of fourth).

A week off to recharge the batteries will have done him no harm and he has the ability to win an event of this magnitude.

Back Wyndham Clark @ 120.0119/1 (2U)

Bet now

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


Staked: 113.5 units Returned: 40 units P/L: -83.5 units


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