US Open 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 30/1 to 60/1

Introduction to the US Open

Shinnecock Hills has an aura, both in terms of modern and long-term history.

The links-style layout is situated on Long Island, New York and staged the second ever US Open in 1896.

More recently, its fearsome reputation has been franked by the editions in 1986, 1995, 2004 and 2018.

Across those four US Opens, just three players broke par (Ray Floyd, Retief Goosen and Phil Mickelson) and in 2018 none of the last 45 players to tee off in round three broke the par of 70.

In 2004, the final-round scoring average was a monstrous 78.7 and the par-3 7th had to be watered between groups with conditions bordering on the impossible.

With all that in recent memory, steps have been taken to avoid such controversies this time.

Both Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler paid recent visits and reported that the fairways were wider than at recent US Opens. Indeed, McIlroy called them "very generous" while acknowledging that missing the short grass will result in a heavy punishment due to the five-inch rough (first cut) and long fescue.

Scheffler, meanwhile, described the green complexes as "extraordinarily difficult".

Here's the top five and their stats from 2018 US Open at Shinnecock:

+1 Brooks Koepka (DD: 2, DA: 55, GIR: 4, Scr: 24, PA 5, AA: 3)
+2 Tommy Fleetwood (DD: 13, DA: 1, GIR: 2, Scr: 14, PA 9, AA: 1)
+3 Dustin Johnson (DD: 5, DA: 16, GIR: 2, Scr: 6, PA 37, AA: 2)
+4 Patrick Reed (DD: 47, DA: 44, GIR: 6, Scr: 57, PA 7, AA: 29)
+5 Tony Finau (DD: 9, DA: 51, GIR: 12, Scr: 54, PA 2, AA: 13)

Notes: Distance seemed more important than accuracy, the best iron players that week rose to the top and putting was also key. The US Open tests every facet and the top three for All-Around all finished on the podium.

A one-week snapshot of stats has the potential to be misleading so it's helpful to note the year-long AA stats of those top five. Fleetwood was 1st, DJ 2nd, Koepka 7th, Finau 13th and Reed 41st. 

Greens in regulation was again a standout stat in 2004. Of the top 12 on the leaderboard, eight finished in the top 10 for GIR. The top five ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th and 9th for AA.

Russell Henley each-way @ 30/131.00

I've got a short(ish)-list of around six or seven players here but, with only three picks in this preview, I won't double up on players already running for me.

In mid-December's ante-post preview, I put up Matt Fitzpatrick at 100/1101.00 and Tommy Fleetwood at 28/129.00 so am more than happy with those. They're both now 20s.

And in last week's 10-year trends preview, Sam Burns and Chris Gotterup were the selections, both at 50/151.00. They're now 35/136.00 and 40/141.00 respectively.

The obvious question is would I still back them at current prices? If they weren't already on board, I'd have to say I'd give all four serious consideration.

But while cheering that quartet on, for this preview I'll kick off with a bet on Russell Henley at 35/136.00.

Henley was a little slow to come to the boil in 2026 but gave us reminders of his class with two strong performances on tough courses: sixth at Bay Hill where he was the defending champion and third at Augusta National.

Add in victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge two starts ago where he hit more greens in regulation than anyone and he looks ready to give it a big run here.

You want strong form going into a US Open and Henley certainly has that.

He also has tournament form after seventh and 10th in the last two US Opens. And given that we're on a links-style track, it's also relevant that he's posted fifth and 10th in the last two Open Championships.

Shinnecock requires an all-round game and Henley ranks 20th in that category this season. And with an emphasis on short game, note that the 37-year-old is one of just five players in the field who rank in the top 50 for both SG: Around The Green and SG: Putting.

He certainly seemed to take to Shinnecock in 2018 when posting the first-round lead. Ninth at halfway, he eventually finished 25th but it looks a decent marker.

Finally, a quote: "I feel like mentally I've kind of let my frustrations get the best of me this year. So I felt like this week I wanted to start just being better about that and fighting all the way through the finish line. I'm excited about the rest of the year and I'm going to keep trying to work hard at it and see if I can be in contention as much as I can."

This was Henley after winning at Colonial on the last day of May and getting over the finish line in front there could be pivotal to his chances here.

Without a top 10 in his first 32 majors, Henley now has six in his last 14, including three of the last four. A late bloomer at this level, this is his time.

Take the 30/131.00 (5 Places).

Bet 2: Tyrrell Hatton each-way @ 35/136.00

Henley won two starts ago but Tyrrell Hatton can go one better having won on his latest LIV outing.

That came at LIV Golf Andalucia and was notable for several reasons.

First, it came at famed Valderrama, a course that requires control and precision (he was the only player to finish double digits under par). Second, he held off local hero Jon Rahm.

There's a pretty significant third for those who believe in the 'Nappy Factor' as the win came on his first start as a dad after he and wife Emily celebrated the arrival of baby Althea a couple of weeks earlier.

"One of my motivations probably moving forward is when Althea grows up, she will know that I was pretty good at golf sometimes," said Hatton later.

"I would love to continue to be able to win tournaments when she's old enough to remember that happening. Definitely given me a different kind of motivation."

It could be great timing that Hatton's fantastic initial response to becoming a father falls bang in the middle of majors season.

A US Open at Shinnecock looks ideal for a player who has produced some wonderful golf near the coast. He's won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland three times (also a three-time runner-up) and made the top 20 in four of the six Opens.

In fact we don't have to speculate that Shinnecock will suit as Hatton finished sixth there in 2018.

The added intrigue is that the Englishman wasn't even in good form at the time. "It's been a bit of a struggle for me recently, so I've had three missed cuts in a row, which isn't ideal. To come in here and finish top ten is really good," said Hatton after finishing his week with a 69.

Fast forward and Hatton has done some excellent groundwork for a potential major winner, finishing fourth in last year's US Open at Oakmont and third in April's US Masters.

They are PBs in both events and set him up for something really significant this week.

Bet 3: Maverick McNealy each-way @ 60/161.00

Eight of the last 10 US Opens have been won by players without a major on their CV.

That trend is a good omen for Henley and Hatton but it also applies to Maverick McNealy.

The American has a less obvious chance but he's matured enough in recent times to be a legitimate each-way punt in the 10 Place market.

McNealy looks a great fit for this course. He ranks 19th for All-Around and is the only player in the field, bar Scottie Scheffler, to be found in the top 20 this season for both Around The Green and Putting.

While those underlying numbers are strong, there is an obvious question: can he do it in a major?

With no wiki yellow in his 14 starts at this level, the knee-jerk response is 'no'.

But zoom in a little and he's really starting to find his feet.

McNealy finished 37th or better in all four 2025 majors while in 2026 he's posted 18th at both the US Masters and US PGA.

In the latter he was the halfway leader but even though he fell away, rounds of 71, 72 on the weekend at Aronimink were hardly a disgrace. Overall, that week can be viewed as money in the bank.

McNealy has played just once since the US PGA and again impressed when finishing 10th in a tough test at Memorial. He showed the prowess of his short game once more by ranking 5th Around The Green and 4th for Putting.

At the US PGA there was also a little nugget that could help him this week. After a Friday 67, the 30-year-old said: "It was a lot of fun playing with Paddy Harrington out there today. It's kind of been a frustrating year in some ways for me on the golf course, and seeing a guy that has such a great attitude and really loves the game and loves to compete as much as he does and just a quintessential great professional golfer, that was a great example for me out there today from an attitude standpoint."

There are certainly more likely winners but McNealy has the game to thrive and, just as importantly, a growing belief that he can be a factor in the majors.

A reminder that two of the last three US Open winners, Wyndham Clark and JJ Spaun, had never previously made the top 20 in any major. McNealy has done that in each of his last two.

Now read Steve Rawlings' US Open preview

*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf