US Masters 2025 First-Round Leader Tips: A trio of picks from 45/1 to 60/1

• 45/146.00 Jordan Spieth has been FRL three times here

• 60/161.00 Dustin Johnson has been starting fast on LIV

• 45/146.00 Viktor Hovland is another former R1 Masters leader

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Weather forecast for Thursday/US Masters FRL history

2024 - 65 Bryson DeChambeau, 66 Scottie Scheffler, 67 Nicolai Hojgaard, Max Homa, 68 Danny Willett 

2023 - 65 Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, 67 Jason Day, Cameron Young, 68 Sam Bennett, Sam Burns, Shane Lowry, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland

2022 - 67 Sungjae Im, 68 Cameron Smith, 69 Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, Danny Willett, Joaqin Niemann

2021 - 65 Justin Rose, 69 Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama, 70 Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris

2020 - 65 Paul Casey, Dylan Frittelli, Dustin Johnson, 66 Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, 67 Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Cameron Smith

2019 - 66 Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, 67 Phil Mickelson, 68 Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter, 69 Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Justin Harding, Kevin Kisner, Jon Rahm, Adam Scott

After rain brought a halt to Monday's practice round, we should be set fair for Thursday's opener.

Temperatures start at around 60 degrees first thing and slowly build to a peak of 70 degrees by 4pm. Wind speeds are pretty consistent throughout the day, staying at a fairly modest 8-10mph in both the morning and afternoon.

From the above, it's fair to predict that the R1 leader will be an elite player who shoots 65! 

History also says there's been no obvious tee-time advantage. Morning starters have led after 18 holes in the last two Masters but prior to that the afternoon wave produced more first-round leaders. 

Jordan Spieth @ 45/146.00

Justin Rose (4) and Jordan Spieth (3) have a remarkable seven first-round leads between them at Augusta National.

Although in a tournament based on familiarity and repeat occurences, that fact seems to sit quite well.

It's obviously tempting to take Rose at 80s but I prefer to back Spieth to join him as a four-time Masters R1 leader.

Spieth has had two strong starts in his last four events. He set out with a 65 at the Cognizant to sit 11th on a wild day of scoring (Jake Knapp fired a 59) while last week the 2015 Masters champion signed for a 67 to sit fourth after the opening lap of the Valero Texas Open.

Looking through his past scores, he's twice shot 64 at Augusta National (the course record is 63) while he closed with a 66 in 2023 when finishing fourth.

Spieth finds birdies easy to come by at Augusta and he's in good enough form to scribble another series of circles on his scorecard.

He's a morning starter at 10.26am.

Dustin Johnson @ 60/161.00

On one hand, it's hard to know what to make of Dustin Johnson these days. 

But, on another, he's actually becoming easy to predict. DJ starts tournaments fast but then fades badly. And that's a great pattern to latch onto in this market.

Here are his last five 18-hole positions on LIV: 2-1-52-4-9.

Here are his final finishing positions in those five events: 27-5-54-31-34.

At Augusta, he was FRL when winning in 2020, third after day one in 2022 and fourth through 18 holes in 2019.

In summary, he's ended the first round in the top four in both three of the last six Masters and three of the last six LIV events.

He blasts off from the 1st at 12.11pm.

Viktor Hovland @ 45/146.00

I'm going to make it a hat-trick of previous Augusta first-round leaders and back Viktor Hovland.

Bryson DeChambeau fits the bill too given that he's managed it twice but I'll take the Norwegian, who was the solo R1 Masters leader in 2023 after a brilliant 65.

Many players never shoot 7-under around here (Justin Thomas hasn't managed it in 32 attempts for example) but Hovland has and that will give him an extra level of confidence.

As, of course, will his win at the Valspar Championship last time.

The caveat there was that he still didn't feel comfortable with his game but in Tuesday's Masters press conference it all sounded much more positive. 

"I've had a great couple weeks in Orlando. Been spending a lot of time with Grant Waite, and it's been fun seeing the improvements that we've had," he said.

"So I do feel a lot better about my game. I have that belief again."

Hovland has been inside the top 20 after day one at each of the last four Masters and, even with his swing not where he wanted it, you only have to go back five starts to see him opening with a 65 at Pebble Beach to sit second.

He's an afternoon starter (1.01pm) in the pleasant company of Adam Scott and Xander Schauffele.

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