US Masters

US Masters 2024 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Side with Spieth

American golfer Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth can thrive at Augusta once more

Dave Tindall arms you with the stats for a punt on the Top 5 and Top 10 Finish markets at Augusta National...

  • Spieth fancied to record his sixth Top 5 Finish

  • Debutant Aberg can crack the Top 10 code

  • Check out all our US Masters content here


Scottie Scheffler - 2022 champ the man to beat

Scheffler is the hot favourite after separating himself at the top of the world rankings with brilliant back-to-back wins on the Florida Swing. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational by five and fired 20-under to become the first player to defend at Sawgrass.

Augusta National was the site of his first and so far only major in 2022 and surely a second beckons. The only possible doubt is that he's set to become a new father and wife Meredith won't be on site at Augusta National. That changes the usual dynamic so could her calming presence be missed?

Never outside the top 20 in four Masters starts, he tops a bunch of statistical categories on the PGA Tour this season including Strokes Gained Total, Tee To Green, Approach and Bogey Avoidance.

Last four events: 2-1-1-10
Masters form: 10-1-18-19
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 50%, Top 10: 62%


Rory McIlroy - the green jacket search goes on

Win backers have been driven crazy by McIlroy at the Masters. He blew a four-shot 54-hole lead in 2011 and since then has been rather tormented in his search to win a first green jacket.

But he's given punters plenty of success in the Top 5 and Top 10 markets and has landed two top fives in the last four even though the other two were missed cuts.

He's advocating a more cautious approach this year after limiting the mistakes when finding some form with third in last week's Valero Texas Open where he was third for Strokes Gained: Approach. Can he stick to a plan that goes against his instincts?

Last four events: 3-19-21-21
Masters form: MC-2-MC-5-21-5-7-10-4-8-25-40-15-MC-20
Last 50 starts - Win: 12%, Top 5: 44%, Top 10: 62%


Jon Rahm - history against defending champ

Defending the green jacket is incredibly rare. Tiger Woods was the last to do it in 2002 and, before him, fellow legends Nick Faldo and Jack Nicklaus were the only ones to manage back-to-back Masters wins.

But Rahm is certainly a legitimate bet for these sides markets as he's made the top 10 in five of the last six Masters, that run including a win and two other top fives.

He's yet to finish outside the top 10 in five starts since moving to LIV and three of those were top fives, including fourth in Miami last weekend. Rahm has hit over 70% of greens in all his LIV events and you get the sense he's bursting to get the 'real' competitive juices flowing again.

Last four events: 4-8-5-8-3
Masters form: 1-27-5-7-9-4-27
Last 50 starts - Win: 14%, Top 5: 40%, Top 58: 40%


Xander Schauffele - Form points to strong finish

Schauffle is regarded as a specialist in the majors despite never having won one. But there's been a drop-off. He posted six top fives (and a 6th and a 10th) in his first 15 majors but hasn't managed any in his latest 11. In fact he's delivered nothing better than tied 10th (twice) in his last nine.

A pair of top threes show he can thrive at Augusta and he'll return there on the back of some impressive results. Schauffele has three top fives in his last four starts and six top 10s in eight 2024 events.

He's second only to Scheffler in SG: Total, SG: Tee To Green and Bogey Avoidance this season and these top 5 and top 10 markets are perhaps the best way to play him.

Last four events: 5-2-25-4
Masters form: 50-2-17-3-MC-10
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 32%, Top 10: 48%


Brooks Koepka - Majors specialist can't be ignored

While a haul of five majors puts Koepka in very elite company (the same number as Seve and Byron Nelson; only 12 players have won more), he's still yet to slip his arms into a green jacket.

The 33-year-old has gone close, finishing runner-up in two of the last five (2019 and 2023) and also adding seventh in 2020. After last year's second place he went on to win the USPGA.

His form on the LIV Tour looks uninspiring but many will not afford it a second look given Koepka's reputation of gearing all his attention towards majors.

Last four events: 45-28-12-12
Masters form: 33-21-11-2-7-MC-MC-2
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 24%


Hideki Matsuyama - Former champ looks primed again

The Japanese star can comfortably be added to the list of Augusta specialists having set the tone by finishing as Low Amateur on debut in 2011. The winner in 2021 hasn't been outside the top 16 in the last four years although a negative spin, with these markets in mind, is that he's only managed one top 10 in his last seven visits. That's a harsh assessment though as he's been a shot or two away in most of those.

Matsuyama's season really took flight with a win, sealed by a stunning 62, in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera and he's stayed hot since, adding sixth at the Players and seventh last week in Texas.

He's ranked in the top three for SG: Tee To Green in three of his last four PGA Tour starts and comes joint-top in my Masters 10-year trends preview so looks a great fit this year.

Last four events: 7-6-12-1
Masters form: 16-14-1-13-32-19-11-7-5-MC-54-27
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 8%, Top 10: 20%


Jordan Spieth - Course horse coming back to the boil

Step forward another Augusta specialist. Spieth hit the ground running with second place on his Masters debut in 2014 and returned 12 months later to shoot 18-under and win by four.

Since then, he's added another runners-up finish, two more thirds and a fourth. That's a fantastic body of work and Spieth, who only turned 30 last summer, should be a challenger for many more years given how his creativity and brilliant powers of recovery work so well at Augusta.

After starting the season with a third and a sixth in his first three events Spieth went off the boil but it could be significant that he returned to form with a top 10 in Texas last week (4th Off The Tee, 18th Approach).

Last four events: 10-MC-MC-30
Masters form: 2-1-2-11-21-46-3-MC-4
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 18%, Top 10: 32%


Joaquin Niemann - Chilean has plenty to prove

Niemann is regarded as a good bet by many this week and yet there's an obvious hole in his chances. The Chilean has never had a top 10 at Augusta National; in fact he's never had one in 19 starts in the majors.

A brighter picture can be painted too. He's made the cut in 10 of his last 12 majors and his Masters finishes have improved each time, culminating in 16th last time when he was just two shots shy of the top 10.

The strongest part of his case is current form. Niemann won December's Australian Open and has taken victory in two LIV events since. His PGA Tour win at Riviera in 2022 also bodes well given how results there correlate so strongly with Augusta National's.

Last four events: 9-4-1-3
Masters form: 16-35-40
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 46%


Ludvig Aberg - Swede going into the unknown

If some trust is needed to punt Niemann, you can argue that an even bigger leap of faith is required when it comes to Aberg. Despite playing in a Ryder Cup and already winning on both the PGA and DP World Tours, this is his very first major start.

And yet the Swede has looked so accomplished since bursting onto the scene that no-one will be surprised if he hits the ground running at this level. Fun fact: he played Augusta in his first year of college and visited again after the recent Players Championship.

So far in 2024, he's not finished outside the top 30 in seven PGA Tour starts, the highlight a second place at Pebble Beach. He's added another pair of top 10s and has ranked in the top 10 for SG: Tee To Green in his latest two events.

Last four events: 14-8-25-19
Masters form: Debut
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 23%, Top 10: 33%


Wyndham Clark - US Open champ getting first look

As with Aberg, Clark is playing in his first Masters so will be very aware of the stat that no debutant has won at Augusta National since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Clark's form in the majors is like no-one else's in the field. His first six showed four missed cuts, a 75th and a 76th and then he went and won the US Open in Los Angeles last June. He followed that with 33rd at the Open Championship.

The 30-year-old's US Open triumph was certainly no fluke and he's backed it up with a win (Pebble Beach) and two second places (Bay Hill and Sawgrass) in his last six starts, rising to 4th in the world rankings. He sits in the top 15 for both SG: Tee To Green and SG: Putting this season.

Last four events: 31-2-2-MC
Masters form: Debut
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 16%, Top 10: 26%


Summary

Top 5 or Top 10? Which do you take?

When it comes to Jordan Spieth, history says the answer is obvious.

These are Spieth's notable finishes at Augusta National: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th.

In other words, when he's on, he's on. All five of his top 10s are actually top fives too so it makes far more sense to take the bigger price.

He's 6.05/1 on the Betfair Exchange for Top 5 and 3.39/4 for Top 10.

Back Jordan Spieth for Top 5 @ 6.05/1

Bet here

There is no such history to guide us for Ludvig Aberg but the Swede looks just the sort of cool customer to take everything in his stride at his debut Masters and make an impression.

Winning first time out seems somewhat optimistic but he's more than capable of starting his Augusta career with a top 10 which is 4.216/5.

A couple of previous visits to the property should add to his comfort levels and, quite simply, he has the game to thrive at this course.

Back Ludvig Aberg for Top 10 @ 4.216/5

Bet here

Now read Dave's Masters 10-year trends preview


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